1 day: The blockbuster must conform to the consumption habits of the era in which it is located
Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs: The Nature of Human Nature
With the continuous improvement of the economic level, people will continue to rise in demand, and the focus of attention will continue to change
The core premise: The essence of human beings is the insatiable continuous needs, throughout life, different stages of life and different material and spiritual life accompanied by different levels of needs at present, based on the continuous satisfaction of economic and material needs, the importance of psychological needs is further enhanced, and the focus of attention changes accordingly.
Insight into China
It is in the second to third consumption switching stage: on the one hand, China and Japan are the same as human nature, and with the continuous improvement of the economic level, the main axis of China's consumption concept change will be similar to Japan. On the other hand, China's eastern and western/urban and rural economic development levels are rich, and the change in consumption concepts is much more complicated than in Japan. First-tier cities have similar to Japan's fourth consumption concept, and fourth- and fifth-tier cities are still in the first to second consumption switching stage. Overall, we believe that the core axis of China's social consumption concept is in the transition stage of the second to third consumption concept.
Changes in automobile demands: Behind the changes in China's automobile consumption trends is that the changes in the main population lead to changes in automobile consumption concepts, which leads to changes in the appeal points for automobiles, thus driving the iteration of cars-SUV-new energy.
Car era one: the joint venture brand is the representative of quality
The first phase of the car era (2005-2008) Summary: the rapid growth stage of the car. Cars have begun to be popularized from high-end people, from consumer import brands to joint venture brands, independent brands are too weak due to technological accumulation, and can only lay out super low-end markets.
At this time, China is in the first stage of consumer society (mainly first- and second-tier cities): the main consumer group of the automotive industry is mainly concentrated in the post-60s/70s, centered on large cities; the consumption tendency is biased towards Westernization, believing that "Ashkenazi/Japanese/American" represents quality and represents high-end avant-garde.
The blockbuster is an A-class sedan with an average monthly sales of 15,000 units. Elantra + Santana + Kaiyue, etc., the price is located in the range of 80,000 to 150,000 yuan; independent brands are represented by the low-end Chery QQ, focusing on low prices + practical + cute appearance, and the price is less than 50,000 yuan.
Sedan era two: independent brands barely meet the demand for transportation
The second phase of the car era (2009-2012) Summary: Rapid popularization in third- and fourth-tier cities. With the promotion of the policy of cars going to the countryside and the launch of cost-effective models of independent brands on the supply side, car sales have entered a peak state.
At this time, China is still in the first consumer social stage (the first and second lines spread to the third and fourth-tier cities): the main consumer population of the automotive industry is mainly concentrated in the post-70s and some post-80s; "German/Japanese/American" represents the high-end consumption concept, but independent brands occupy part of the market space with high cost performance.
The explosive model is an A-class sedan, with an average monthly sales of 30,000 to 40,000 units. Langyi + Jetta + Corolla, etc., the price is in the range of 80,000 to 120,000 yuan; the independent brand BYD F3 came behind, the price is less than 50,000 yuan, with the advantage of high cost performance, the monthly sales exceeded 30,000 vehicles.
Car era three: exchange or buy joint venture
The third phase of the car era (2013-2016) Summary: the total amount has shrunk. The trend of consumption upgrading is highlighted, and the market share of cars has fallen from 30% to about 20% due to insufficient technology and insufficient product strength of independent brands.
At this time, China is in the transition stage from the first consumer society to the second consumer society (especially in the first and second-tier cities): the main consumer population of the automotive industry has begun to shift to the 70/80 post; "German/Japanese/American" represents the high-end consumption concept, and the independent brand has turned to the SUV market.
The explosive model is an A-class sedan, with the highest average monthly sales of more than 60,000 units. Xuanyi + Langyi, etc., the price is in the range of 80,000 to 120,000 yuan; the independent brand Geely + Changan came to the fore, the price was upgraded to 80,000 to 100,000 yuan, with the advantage of high cost performance, the monthly sales exceeded 20,000 vehicles.
SUV era one: sedan for SUV, the first choice of joint venture brand
Summary of the first phase of the UV era (2011-2013): The penetration rate increased from 10% to 30%. As the preferred product for the exchange family, the SUV has more space, a higher chassis, and can better highlight the social status. Joint venture brands (Tiguan-CR-V and other models) are the first choice for middle-class purchases, but the Haval H6 has become an independent benchmark with ultra-high cost performance.
At this time, China is in the transition stage from the first consumer society to the second consumer society (especially in the first and second tier cities): the main consumer population of the automotive industry is mainly concentrated in the post-70s and some post-80s;
The hit is a medium-sized SUV with an average monthly sales of 20,000 to 30,000 units. CR-V/ Tiguan, etc., the price is in the range of 150,000 to 250,000 yuan; the independent brand Great Wall Haval H series is behind, the price is located at 80,000 to 120,000 yuan, with high cost-effective advantages, monthly sales of up to 30,000 vehicles.
SUV era two: the first purchase of SUV to choose the Haval H6
The second phase of the SUV era (2014-2018) Summary: Penetration increased from 30% to 50%. At this stage, with the rejuvenation of the main consumer population + the improvement of economic level + the improvement of SUV cost performance, SUV has stimulated the demand for first-time car purchases, especially models such as independent brand Haval H6 have become super hits.
At this time, China is in the second stage of consumption concepts, pursuing the consumption concept of the bigger the better: [the more the merrier], "the better the better", [social mass production & centralized consumption] as the main features of this stage; the main consumer population of the automotive industry is mainly concentrated in the 70/80s;
The hit is a compact SUV, with monthly sales of more than 80,000 units. Haval H6 is representative, the price is in the range of 80,000 to 120,000 yuan; independent brands are always in the price band below 150,000 yuan, and more than 150,000 yuan is still occupied by joint venture brands (high-end representatives).
From sedans to SUVs: from scratch, from yes to better
Choosing the car market explosive product Xuanyi + Langyi and SUV market explosive product Haval H6 + Boyue comparison, the SUV itself is more in line with the Chinese market consumers' pursuit of large space + strong power + cost-effective demand.
The background of the new energy era: from the second to the third consumption conversion
The transformation of the first consumer society to the second consumer society: to promote the domestic market to achieve the rise of SUV from car to consumer; the transformation of the second consumer society to the third consumer society: will promote the domestic market to achieve the process of purchasing new energy from fuel oil.
New energy VS oil trucks: long and short coexist vs all aspects
New Energy VS Fuel Vehicles:
Disadvantages - small size + low endurance. 1) Take the explosive model Tesla Model 3 as an example, its size is smaller than the explosive fuel car at the same price, such as the Camry/Accord; 2) The new energy endurance is mostly 600 ~ 700km, which is lower than the endurance of the oil car in the full oil state.
Advantages - fast acceleration + high intelligence. 1) Model3/BYD Han and other 100 km acceleration are less than 8s, high-performance version is less than 4s, for the fuel car era luxury sports car configuration; 2) electric vehicles in intelligent driving / intelligent cockpit technology accessories are significantly ahead of fuel vehicle competitors.
The initial popularization of new energy: amplifying the "long board" in non-mainstream markets
Sub-purchase group: The proportion of household purchases/exchanges increased from 39% in 2016 to 48% in 2020, and electric vehicles are the choice for additional purchases.
By fuel type: in 2021, EV consumption accounted for nearly 80%, PHEV accounted for 20%, mainly BYD/ideal (to solve mileage anxiety); operating vehicles accounted for nearly 13%, mainly GAC Aion S and Fengxing/BYD Dynasty series;
Sub-consumption areas: In 2021, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales restriction areas will still exceed 25%, and the license plate factor will have an important impact on tram consumption.
Up to now, the core purchase population of new energy vehicles is distributed in the following 5 categories: 1) family purchase: there is already a fuel vehicle to meet the needs of long-distance travel, and the purchase of scooters for family members' daily travel (no mileage anxiety); 2) some consumers in restricted areas with license plate demand (license plate advantage); 3) operating vehicle demand (concentrated in the headquarters of the car company) (low operating costs); 4) high acceptance of new technologies and pay attention to environmental protection people (intelligent advantages, etc.); 5) some have mileage anxiety & Consumers with fuel-saving needs choose to purchase PHEV (Phased Transition Scheme).
New energy explosive characteristics: the selling point is clear enough
In the era of sufficient supply of models, consumers do not lack "a car with all aspects", but lack a "car that shows who I am"; the psychological needs of consumers reflected behind it: from the stage of selflessness to self-searching, to meet the psychological needs of "love and belonging + respect".
Second, the location: the blockbuster must be born in an innovative organization
The new energy explosion has very high requirements for tissue genes
The common characteristics of the explosive birth organization are: 1) Flat organizations do not have the disease of large enterprises. 2) Systematic engineering is also a manual process. 3) Science and art can be well combined. Good product managers are very scarce, and to some extent good product managers cannot be replicated. 4) The continuous iteration ability of technology is very strong.
If a company wants to try to replicate the ability to make a blockbuster in some way, the idea itself may not be true. We are currently in an era of information explosion and full of uncertainty, and it is impossible to accurately predict the explosion of a model. Compared with the past mechanical era, the difficulty coefficient of the explosive model has further increased. The explosion of the information age requires more sensitive organizations that dare to make mistakes and iterate quickly.
Third, people and: the blockbuster must be clearly positioned and continue to iterate
Step 1: Clear positioning to ensure that product competition is effective
Clear and unambiguous product positioning and target population planning are the premise of ensuring effective product competition, and the core lies in whether the launch of supply-side products can grasp the main pain points of consumer groups in corresponding market segments.
Step 2: Continuous iteration to ensure the vigorous vitality of the product
After the product positioning is accurate, the company can continue to iteratively upgrade the product according to the changes in the pain points of consumers in the end market and its own technological progress, which is the key point to ensure that the vitality of the product is strong and the sales volume continues to be high.
Fourth, the analysis framework of competitive models:
The basic configuration is available, the subdivision positioning is what it likes, and the more additional subjects, the better
Basic: Basic configuration has everything [determine the price range]
In addition to defining the essential attributes of the car, such as necessary safety + driving travel, the basic configuration of different products varies according to different price ranges. The core is reflected in: size, battery capacity / endurance, motor performance / 100 km acceleration, cockpit interior.
The core reaction of user consumption: taking the purchase budget as the center, the remaining four basic configurations are selected, and the price corresponds directly to the configuration.
Targeted: Subdivision positioning to its liking [Benchmarking group portrait]
In the corresponding price range, the main engine factory subdivides and positions the products through the characteristics and advantages of the products. For specific consumer groups, products are invested in their own preferences: appearance, space, energy economy, and intelligence.
The core reaction of user consumption: after determining the budget, according to the needs and preferences of their own product use scenarios, the above items are selected, and the user group selection is different from the price range, and the main engine factory mainly distinguishes the benchmark group through such configurations.
Sublimation: the more bonus subjects the better[Focus on different users]
Manufacturers basically determine the user group through basic and targeted indicators, but in the stock competition market, sublimation plus points are equally key, which is an important consideration index for users to measure the cost performance of the product, including: sky canopy, empty suspension, HUD, headlights, charging convenience, other comfort configurations, etc.
The core reaction of user consumption: through the above indicators, the different configurations of the corresponding products or the cost performance after the optional configuration are examined.
Sublimation plus points subjects are constantly being excavated at present, and the essence behind it is: the current fierce competition in the automotive sector, the supply side further refines the market classification, and strives to shape the "product differentiation selling point" from the multi-dimensional aspects of the body appearance/cockpit interior/driving chassis to ensure that their products are sufficient to attract consumers during the period of fierce competition in the industry change. Therefore, for the current products, in addition to meeting the clear consumption pain points of consumers in specific use scenarios, explosive models need to devote more energy to the cost performance of their own products and clear differentiated selling points.
Detailed distinction: Price first & scene demand second & configuration last
From the bottom up dimension, taking the groups of different consumer price ranges as the observation object, summarizing the different choices of the focus factors of the explosive products. In the general category, we believe that the consumption behavior of the vehicle is considered from the bottom up, which is roughly the budget first, the use scenario (representing the main demand after the purchase of the car) is second, the basic selection of the car purchase list, the detailed configuration selection and so on are related to the user preference type.
Correspondingly, when judging what is a popular model, 1) first need to fully understand the standard configuration of the corresponding price band of the model, exceeding the upper limit means that the cost performance is higher, but at the same time, it is necessary to combine the corresponding price band consumers' weight attention to the indicator to judge how effective the indicator is, the greater the utility, the higher the market recognition; 2) The same reason for the targeted configuration, the highlights of the product need to match the corresponding price with consumption pain points, in order to achieve twice as much with half the effort; 3) Finally, the configuration, Different price band products for the allocation of additional points account hold the meaning of "more the merrier".
Brand: three-dimensional progression, binding the core circle users, and achieving circle breaking
As the result of the early positioning of the product and the focus on a single group, the brand will become the cause of the next stage of product circle breaking & user expansion. "Basic configuration has everything" & "for the configuration to do what it likes" & "sublimation configuration more the merrier" three-dimensional narrowing of the user circle in turn, and the basic configuration wins compared to the targeted / sublimation configuration wins the advantage is greater, targeted configuration compared to the sublimation advantage is obvious. Such as: Tesla - fundamental; ideal ONE - targeted; macromini - fundamental; DM-i - targeted. It is further clarified that the blank market segment is basically victorious, and it is relatively easy to achieve brand breaking; the pertinence is more testing the product capabilities of the main engine factory and the user's understanding ability, and the sublimation is simply based on the accumulation of cost performance as the way to win.
Changes in the era of consumption will change the weight distribution of consumers to consumption factors
The evolution stage of the consumption era: The mainstream of the current domestic market is in the transition period from the second consumer society to the third consumer society, and some developed cities have evolved from the third consumer society to the fourth consumer society. We judge:
The core changes brought about by the evolution of the second to the third consumer society focus on the rise of personalized consumption, and consumers have a more persistent pursuit of "product differentiation". Therefore, the importance of targeted configuration in the second phase will be further enhanced, and it will become a strong selling point for its own products through the further amplification of the four major elements of appearance/space/economy/intelligence in different price ranges.
The core changes brought about by the evolution of the third to the fourth consumer society focus on the rise of shared pan-consumerism, and the consumption behavior is more rational. Therefore, the importance of the basic configuration of the first stage and the sublimation configuration of the third stage will be enhanced, and its own solid product strength rather than brand marketing differentiation Selling point is the mainstream way to attract consumers.
5. Investment analysis
The auto sector has been fully retraced, firmly optimistic about the auto investment opportunities in 2022, it is recommended to overmatch! 1) Chip Q2 is expected to continue to ease + policy to support the economy + rigid demand release, domestic passenger car traffic insurance data is expected to Q2 year-on-year to achieve continuous positive, Q3 positive range continues to increase. 2) The demand brought about by the price increase of new energy vehicles has been fully responded to by the market, and Q2 is expected to resume orders and deliveries. 3) Each independent brand actively promotes the overseas strategy, and exports will continue to enter the high-growth channel.
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