Produced by | Explorer Deep Technology (aka Explorer Tanker)
Author | Yin Taibai
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The "three brothers" of the first echelon of the new car-making forces finally gathered again in Hong Kong stocks.
On March 10, NIO officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with an opening price of HK$160 on the first day of listing, and as of the close of Hong Kong stocks on the same day, its stock price fell slightly by 0.69% to HK$158.9, with a total market value of HK$265.205 billion on the first day of listing.
Prior to this, Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile, which are also in the same echelon, were listed on the Hong Kong stock market for the second time in July 2021 and August 2021 respectively, and both encountered the dilemma of falling below the issue price on the first day of listing.
Then on March 25, NIO announced its financial data for the fourth quarter and full year of 2021, and this financial report has also attracted much attention.
According to the financial report, THE TOTAL REVENUE OF NIO in the fourth quarter of 2021 was RMB (hereinafter the same) of RMB9.9007 billion, an increase of 49.1% year-on-year; the total revenue of the whole year of 2021 was 36.1364 billion yuan, an increase of 122.3% year-on-year. In addition, the operating loss in the fourth quarter of 2021 reached 2,445.1 million yuan, an increase of 162.5% year-on-year; the operating loss for the whole year of 2021 was 4,496.3 million yuan, a decrease of 2.42% from the previous year.
After the release of the financial report, as of the close of Hong Kong stocks on March 25, NIO's stock price fell 7.11% to close at HK$162 (total market value of HK$274.2 billion); at the same time, Xiaopeng Automobile reported HK$107.4 (total market value of HK$184 billion) and Ideal Auto reported HK$102.5 (total market value of HK$211.7 billion).
Under the general trend of the development of new energy vehicles, not only the Internet giants personally go down to build cars, traditional car companies are also fiercely competing for the new energy vehicle market, even the echelon of new car-making forces is constantly emerging new enterprises, and the competition between Wei Xiaoli's "three brothers" is directly entering the "white-hot" stage, who can break through?
1. Why did NIO return to Hong Kong for listing for the second time?
Unlike Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile, which returned to Hong Kong to go public and adopt the IPO method, NIO's landing in Hong Kong stocks adopted the method of introducing listing.
Introducing listing is a way for issued securities to apply for listing, which is only a way for corporate shareholders to apply for listing and trading of their old shares, and does not involve the issuance of new shares and fundraising.
In fact, the road to Weilai's secondary listing has not gone smoothly.
As early as March 2021, NIO submitted a dual listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but it has not been able to obtain approval from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange due to issues such as user trust funds and the company's own structure. Now NIO has landed on Hong Kong stocks through the introduction of listing, but it has been a full year later than planned.
However, NIO's cash reserves are relatively abundant, and there is no urgent financing need in the short term – its latest financial report shows that as of December 31, 2021, NIO had cash reserves of 55.4 billion yuan (about US$8.7 billion).
But the lack of urgent financing needs in the short term does not mean that there will never be, AND is still constantly seeking the possibility of entering other capital markets, mentioning in its prospectus that the company has applied for an introductory listing on the main board of the Singapore Exchange, and the specific listing date is under review.
Rushing to the three places to list means that WEILAI is eager to expand the scale of financing. For Weilai, which has experienced a near-break in the capital chain, it has to be prepared for cash reserves.
On the one hand, the automotive industry is an industry with high input costs, long profit cycle, and continuous demand for funds, and to this day, whether it is Weilai or Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile, it is still mired in the quagmire of losses; on the other hand, Nezha Automobile, WM Automobile and Zero Run Automobile in the second echelon are catching up and posing a local threat to the members of the first echelon.
In addition, hidden in the shadows are also hidden new energy vehicle brands from traditional car manufacturers and cross-border predators such as Xiaomi, Baidu and Huawei.
A new energy vehicle analyst told "Tanke Deep Technology" that there are two main reasons why WEILAI would rather not raise funds and go public, one is that the long-term trend of Chinese stocks is not clear, and listing in Hong Kong can dilute the systemic delisting risk of Chinese stocks; second, since entering 2022, Weilai has been questioned by investors because it has fallen out of the top three of the delivery volume of new car-making forces for two consecutive months.
However, even if it returns to Hong Kong for listing, NIO's future is still stormy: from 2018 to 2021, NIO's total revenue was 4.951 billion yuan, 7.825 billion yuan, 16.258 billion yuan and 36.1364 billion yuan, respectively, while the net losses in the same period were 9.639 billion yuan, 11.2957 billion yuan, 5.3041 billion yuan and 4.4963 billion yuan, respectively.
The secondary market is obviously still not very satisfied with such a performance, so after the release of the financial report on March 25, NIO closed at HK$162 in Hong Kong stocks, a decline of 7.11%. In the face of Weilai's overall performance, people can't help but have a question: can Weilai return to the position of "one brother"?
2. Can you return to the "first brother" position?
Weilai was once a regular customer of the top 1 of the delivery volume of new car-making forces, but now it has been absent for half a year.
July 2021 is a turning point in a "hegemonic translocation". Prior to this, Weilai has been dominating the top position in the monthly sales list of new car-making forces, and even sold more than 2,000 more vehicles per month than Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile when it was most exaggerated.
Ideal Auto soon succeeded NIO as the champion of monthly sales. In July 2021, Ideal left Xiaopeng Motors (8040 units) and NIO (7931 units) behind with sales of 8589 units. At the same time, Nezha Automobile, which is in the second echelon, suddenly exploded, setting a new high in single-month delivery, with a year-on-year increase of 392% to 6011 vehicles.
After that, Xiaopeng and Ideal took turns to win the monthly sales championship, while weilai's situation was slow to improve, especially in October 2021, and its delivery volume fell off a cliff, only 3667 units. The explanation given by WEIlai officially is that the production line of Hefei Jianghuai Weilai factory was upgraded, which affected the production plan in October.
Compared with Weilai, which fell into decline, Nezha Automobile, a member of the second echelon, went up against the current, surpassing the ideal car (7649 vehicles) with a score of 8107 vehicles, second only to the monthly sales champion Xiaopeng Automobile (10138 vehicles), turning the new power pattern of "Wei Xiaoli" into "Xiaonali".
In fact, not only Nezha Automobile, but also the performance of the second echelon of WM Motors in October 2021 is also quite eye-catching, and its sales volume of 5025 units has overwhelmed Weilai. On social platforms, there have been remarks such as "Weilai is left behind" and "the pattern of the three strong forces of car manufacturing has changed".
Time into 2022, Weilai still has not come out of the cold winter period.
According to the delivery data of the new car-making forces, in February, the delivery volume of the monthly sales champion ideal car was 8414 vehicles, an increase of 265.8% year-on-year, Nezha Automobile ranked second with the delivery volume of 7117 vehicles, an increase of 255% year-on-year, and the third place was Xiaopeng Automobile, whose delivery volume was 6225 vehicles, an increase of 180% year-on-year, while Weilai ranked fourth, with a delivery volume of only 6131 vehicles, a slight increase of 9.9% year-on-year, and there have been obvious signs of falling behind.
In addition, WEILAI has always been a fan of the power exchange model, and the power station is worth a lot, basically starting in millions.
Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of NIO Power, said on the third anniversary of NIO Power that by the end of 2025, the number of WEILAI replacement power stations in the world will exceed 4,000, and it is also guaranteed that 90% of the users' housing will become "electric district houses" in the same year, which means that WEILAI still needs a lot of funds for the layout of the power exchange model.
Weak delivery, deep losses and high expenditure costs, so that the original first-mover advantage of Weilai and Xiaopeng, the ideal gap is getting smaller and smaller, as the competition between the new car-making forces into the deep water, Weilai's return to the position of "brother" of the new car-making forces does not seem to be easy to achieve.
The above-mentioned analysts believe that for Weilai, which is in a downturn, it is obvious that going to the listing of three places cannot completely solve all the problems. With changes in the macro environment, such as subsidies declining, chip shortages and rising prices of raw materials for power batteries, "Weilai's breakthrough road is still obstructed and long."
3. The second echelon competes for listing tickets
Among the new car-making forces, the popularity and fame of the second echelon composed of Nezha Automobile, Weima Automobile and Zero-run Automobile seem to be weaker than that of the first echelon "Wei Xiaoli", but this does not prevent the highlight moments of the members of the second echelon from coming one after another.
In 2021, the delivery volume of "Wei Xiaoli" was 91429 vehicles, 98155 vehicles and 90491 vehicles, respectively, followed by the delivery volume of "Newei Zero" was 69672 units, 44157 units and 43121 vehicles, respectively. Although the second echelon has a large gap with the first echelon in terms of delivery volume, from the perspective of year-on-year growth rate, the strength and potential of the second echelon cannot be underestimated.
The year-on-year growth rate of "Wei Xiaoli" delivery volume was 109.1%, 263% and 177.4%, respectively, as a comparison, the year-on-year growth rate of "Newei Zero" was 362%, 96.3% and 320.04%, in addition to WM Motor, the year-on-year growth rate of Nezha Automobile and Zero Running Car was much higher than that of the first echelon.
In addition to "breaking the wrist" with the first echelon in terms of delivery volume, the second echelon is also actively seeking listing, of which Nezha Automobile's offensive is the most fierce.
Behind Nezha Car, there are various capital parties such as Nanning State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Yichun State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Qihoo 360 and Ningde Times. On February 21, Nezha Automobile completed a new round of financing of more than 2 billion yuan, including THE CRRC Fund under CRRC Group and Shenzhen Venture Capital with a state-owned background in Shenzhen. It is said that after the completion of the D series financing, the valuation of Nezha Automobile will exceed 25 billion yuan and will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange within the year.
But objectively speaking, there is still a big gap between Nezha automobile and the first echelon. When Qihoo 360 invested in Nezha Automobile, it disclosed the financial data of Nezha Automobile: for the whole year of 2020, Nezha Automobile's total revenue was 1.297 billion yuan, and in the first half of 2021, its revenue was 1.632 billion yuan and its net loss was 693 million yuan.
It is worth mentioning that the gross profit margin of Nezha Automobile is only 5%, which is far from the 20.9% gross profit margin of The latest disclosure of Weilai.
Although the zero-run car in the second echelon has not surpassed Weilai, it has also been impacting the first echelon with a three-digit year-on-year growth rate. On March 17, ZeroCar submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the first new car-making force in the second echelon that is expected to successfully land on Hong Kong stocks.
Among the members of the second echelon, the delivery volume and heat of WM Motors are in a weak position, but the ambition is not small. In 2020, WM chose to list on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, intending to become the "first stock of new energy vehicles on the Science and Technology Innovation Board". However, in April 2021, the listing process of WM Motor's science and technology innovation board was suspended, and no relevant news has been revealed since then.
In fact, for WM Motors, listing is not optional, but mandatory. The previously disclosed listing counseling documents show that the financial data of WM Motors is not optimistic, from 2017 to the first three quarters of 2020, the total revenue of WM Motors was 14.872 million yuan, 720 million yuan, 1.78 billion yuan and 1.68 billion yuan, respectively, and in the same period, the net losses were 1.696 billion yuan, 2.453 billion yuan, 3.608 billion yuan and 3.649 billion yuan, respectively. In less than four years, WM Motor has accumulated losses of about 11.4 billion yuan and urgently needs blood transfusions.
At present, for the second echelon of "less than the top, more than the bottom", only by seeking more funds to support the research and development of subsequent models can they survive the fierce competition.
4, the dark war escalation, Nugget Europe
Not only limited to the Chinese market, the war between new car-making forces is spreading to the European market 7,000 kilometers away.
"At a time when decarbonization has become a global consensus, the subsidy policies and emission regulations of European governments have made the penetration rate of new energy vehicles grow geometrically, and the European market has quickly become a strategic commanding height for new car-making forces to lay out overseas markets." The analyst said.
In addition to the new car-making forces represented by Weilai, Xiaopeng Automobile and WM Motors, traditional automobile manufacturers such as SAIC Motor, Dongfeng Group, BYD, Chery Automobile, Geely Group, and Great Wall Motors have also successively formulated overseas targets and sales plans.
An important factor in attracting new car-making forces to the sea is that the carbon emission policies of European countries are becoming stricter, especially the European Union's draft "Fit for 55" has set more aggressive emission reduction targets, requiring that the total carbon emissions of all registered new cars in 2030 be reduced by 55% compared with 2021, and achieve net zero emissions by 2035.
At the same time, European countries have also introduced strong new energy subsidy policies, such as in Germany, the purchase of new energy vehicles can be subsidized up to 9,000 euros; in Ireland, not only can enjoy subsidies of up to 5,000 euros and 5,000 euros of value-added tax relief, but also hundreds of euros of charging pile subsidies.
"The European market is expected to bring new growth poles to the new car-making forces." The above-mentioned analysts told "Tanke Deep Technology" that European standards and regulations are more stringent than in China, and if the new car-making forces can cross this threshold, it will help improve the brand influence at home and abroad, which in turn will lead to an increase in delivery.
But entering the European market is not a one-time thing.
According to statistics released by the British data research agency JATO, in the whole year of 2021, the top two models in the European market are Tesla Model 3 and Volkswagen ID.4, followed by French, American, Korean and German cars. The popularity of new car-making forces in the European market is not high, and the comprehensive strength is still difficult to match Tesla and so on.
In addition to the pressure from competitors, localized operations such as sales channels and after-sales maintenance systems are also a major problem faced by new car-making forces. At present, most of the sales of new car-making forces overseas adopt an authorized layout, which is conducive to the rapid opening of the market, but restricts the brand's popularity and influence.
For ambitious new car-making forces, entering the European market is a thorny road, but it is also a must.56 road. It is foreseeable that the dark war between the new car-making forces will continue to escalate in 2022.
*The picture in the text is from: Photo Network, based on VRF protocol.