"By the end of this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland will reach 35%." WANG Chuanfu, president of BYD, said at the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 People Conference a few days ago.
Wang Chuanfu's views have also been echoed, and Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, believes that 80% of China's fuel vehicle brands will "shut down and turn" in the next 3-5 years. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, also said that the sales of traditional fuel vehicles in 2022 are basically close to the peak, while new energy vehicles have entered a period of rapid growth, and it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will be the same as that of fuel vehicles around 2030.
On the one hand, the accelerated development of the new energy automobile industry has a significant substitution effect on fuel vehicles; on the other hand, supply chain constraints are still the bottlenecks restricting its further expansion.
Zhang Feng, vice president of Fu Neng Technology, said in an interview that the production capacity in 2022 has been sold, and the production capacity in 2023 is also very tight. It is not expected that the tight battery supply situation will change this year, and a second round of price increases is also being negotiated with customers. At present, the tight supply of raw materials in the upstream of power batteries is mainly due to the long expansion cycle of mineral resources, the room for improvement of mining technology and the impact of overseas mineral production capacity.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, 65% of lithium ore resources in 2021 will come from overseas.
How to alleviate the tight supply of new energy batteries and avoid the "card neck" of lithium mines, OEMs and lithium battery manufacturers have their own path choices.
Lithium iron phosphate reverses ternary lithium
Lithium battery cathode materials are rising, and compared with ternary lithium batteries that require rare metals such as cobalt and nickel, lithium iron phosphate batteries cost less. Its market share has also gradually surpassed that of ternary lithium batteries. According to the data previously released by the Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII), the shipment of cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries in China was 1.094 million tons, of which the shipment of lithium iron phosphate cathode material was 455,000 tons, and the shipment of ternary lithium cathode was 42.2 tons. Lithium iron phosphate materials have achieved inverted in the case of lagging behind ternary materials for 5 consecutive years, becoming the sub-industry with the largest shipment volume and the fastest growth rate in the cathode material segment.
Wang Chuanfu said that in the past, when the mileage of electric vehicles was 200 kilometers, energy density was the most important indicator; but when the mileage reached 500 kilometers, like the mileage of a tank of fuel vehicles, the battery energy density was no longer the most important, and the most important indicators may become safety, cost, cycle life, etc. The blade battery launched by BYD realizes that the energy density of the package body is comparable to that of the ternary battery, and the cycle life and safety factor are stronger, which has pulled lithium iron phosphate back to the right path of the industry. "China cannot go from being necked by oil cards in the era of fuel vehicles to being necked by metal cobalt and metal nickel in the era of electric vehicles. Lithium iron phosphate does not contain rare metals and is more suitable for the tolerance of social resources. ”
In addition, Wang Chuanfu also mentioned the preferential policies for new energy vehicles in the post-subsidy era, "From a worldwide perspective, European and American countries are increasing their financial and tax support for new energy vehicles, but the mainland's new energy vehicle purchase subsidies, purchase tax reductions and other policies will be withdrawn by the end of this year." Considering that product development takes 3 to 5 years, in order to stabilize industry expectations, it is recommended that the purchase tax reduction policy for new energy vehicles can be extended to maintain policy stability during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. ”
The Ningde era is to the left, and the lithium energy of Yiwei can be to the right
For the choice of battery route, the technical route of lithium battery manufacturers has once again diverged. Stimulated by Tesla's sales, the 4680 large cylindrical battery has gradually increased, and the Ningde era has launched a Kirin battery to hit back.
A few days ago, Liu Jincheng, chairman of Ewell Lithium Energy, said at the battery hundred people's meeting that safety and economy are the current focus of power batteries, and square ternary batteries are prone to spontaneous combustion because they contain high nickel materials; the price of the soft pack ternary battery with excellent performance is two or three thousand yuan more expensive than other battery systems. Compared with the two, the large cylindrical battery is structurally stable and structurally stable throughout the life cycle. During the battery life cycle, the 46 series large cylindrical battery will not generate internal stress due to expansion, resulting in structural changes inside the battery, and will also become the main power supply direction for high- and mid-range vehicles in the future.
According to the puncture experiment of EWELL Lithium Energy on the large cylindrical battery, when the puncture experiment was performed on 6 46 series batteries, the battery cell quickly extinguished after catching fire. "After the internal pressure exceeds a certain value, the battery will open the valve and drain the main heat enthalpy inside its battery in a directional manner to avoid heat diffusion between the batteries." There is a Vent (vent hole) on the battery, which can quickly release the battery pressure. Liu Jincheng explained.
In addition to Ewell Lithium Energy, Panasonic And BAK Battery are also optimistic about the prospects of large cylindrical cells. According to the data, the LARGE Cylindrical battery cell of BAK battery will be mass-produced in 2024, when the energy density will reach 285Wh/kg.
Fan Wenguang, vice president of BAK Power Battery, said that the large cylindrical battery is the optimal solution for high-end electric vehicles in the next 5-10 years, and the market share of China's large cylindrical batteries will exceed 30% in 2025, exceeding the total global demand in 2021.
In the face of the menacing large cylindrical battery, Wu Kai, chief scientist of the Ningde era, revealed that the Qilin battery of the Ningde era, "Under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the 3.0 version of CTP power is 13% higher than the energy density of the 4680 system." ”
According to the information disclosed by catheter times, the system energy density of The Kirin battery is expected to be 160Wh/kg-290Wh/L when using the iron phosphate system, and the system energy density is expected to be 250Wh/kg-450Wh/L when using the ternary system.
"The specific technical parameters will be announced next month." Insiders of the Ningde era told the Observer Network.
Under the background of soaring crude oil prices, the substitution effect of new energy vehicles is also accelerating, and it is also an opportunity for lithium battery manufacturers and new energy vehicle manufacturers to develop. The technical routes of lithium iron phosphate and lithium ternary are gradually differentiated, and the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries is gradually dominant based on energy density, cost and safety considerations. At this stage, compared with square batteries and soft pack batteries, the large cylindrical battery market size is limited, and which package path is dominant also needs to be tested by the market.
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