Deconstructing by BYD's discontinued pure fuel vehicles from sales in the past 5 years decided to | driving round table

BYD's suspension of production of fuel vehicles in March suddenly brushed the screen in the circle of friends, and in the context of the Shanghai epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it rushed to the zhihu hot search. For the industry, this is indeed a landmark event, but if you have been paying attention to BYD, you can foresee that this day will soon come at least half a year ago.

"The world's first car company to announce the suspension of fuel vehicles", this title is undoubtedly exciting today, the media reporting direction for this matter, generally is also "BYD can stop production of fuel vehicles so quickly?" This kind of positive argument, the implication is somewhat"Why can't other car companies do it now?" " means.

At present, the focus of everyone's attention is the performance of BYD's new energy vehicles, and less attention is paid to the fuel vehicles that BYD has just stopped. In addition, at the moment when BYD has completely completed the transformation of new energy, what is the sales structure of other independent brands? When will they be able to completely abandon the fuel car like BYD?

To answer this question, we must first talk about why BYD can stop production of fuel vehicles at this time, and to talk about this, we have to take a good look back at BYD's fuel vehicles, which is also the place that is generally ignored by everyone at present.

Behind the strength of new energy vehicles,

It is the downturn of BYD pure oil vehicles

First of all, we have to define it clearly.

In BYD's official announcement, the original description is "stop the production of fuel vehicles", which is somewhat ambiguous, of course, we insiders know that DM-i is a hybrid car that still needs to be refueled, but let ordinary xiaobai (such as my wife) see this title, or will be understood as BYD's new car in the future, do not need to refuel.

"Precise" point, BYD discontinued, is a pure fuel vehicle. Let's be more realistic in advance, because next, we can't help but discuss the concept definition.

▲BYD's sales are responsible for Qin PLUS, plus No. 92 gasoline

According to the data just released by BYD, the total sales volume in March this year reached 104338, of which 50,674 DM hybrid models and 53,664 BEV pure electric vehicles add up to the total sales. In other words, since March, THERE have been no pure fuel vehicles in BYD's sales (wholesale sales).

In fact, in the last December of last year, BYD PHEV and BEV sales accounted for nearly 95%, and in March this year, it officially abandoned pure fuel vehicles, but gave up less than 5% of the amount. Therefore, the suspension of fuel vehicles in March is definitely not a multimedia description of "strong man's broken wrist" for BYD, but it is a natural thing.

The proportion of new energy vehicles is extremely high, of course, the main reason is the strong sales of DM-i series and pure electric series, but there is another important reason - BYD pure fuel vehicle sales, too little. In recent months, BYD's full range of pure fuel vehicles has been sold together, less than 5,000.

Therefore, in addition to applauding the success of BYD's transformation, we may also wish to ask one more question: Why is the sales of BYD pure fuel vehicles so small? To answer this question, we have to stretch the timeline a little longer:

The above table is based on the amount of insurance on the new car, and the sales data of BYD's main models since 2017 are counted, the data volume is relatively large, and we score different angles to cut into it in order to see the key problems.

First of all, from the perspective of car companies as a whole.

BYD's sales of all models in 2017 were 339,000 units, what is this concept? In that year, Geely Automobile sold a total of 1.185 million units, the Great Wall 906,000 units, Changan 1.034 million units, and SAIC motor and GAC motor also sold more than 480,000 units. Among the mainstream independent car companies, BYD's sales volume is only slightly higher than Chery's 313,000 units.

Thanks to the momentum of Song MAX's initial listing, BYD's sales in 2018 suddenly increased to 421,000 vehicles, but in 2019 it quickly fell back to less than 400,000 vehicles, and in this year, Chery, which has the blessing of the Jietu brand, has left BYD behind. In 2020, when the epidemic broke out, BYD's sales fell to 359,000 units, almost returning to the level of 2017.

That is to say, if you look at the sales figures alone, BYD can't even enter the top seven among independent brand manufacturers, less than 400,000 vehicles, and can only barely hold the bottom line of second-tier independent brands.

BYD's real promotion to the front-line camp is from the 2021 DM-i series listing, this year BYD's sales scale increased from 359,000 to 720,000 vehicles, just doubled, and just look at the sales in the second half of the month, BYD has actually been basically on an equal footing with Geely and Changan.

Secondly, from the perspective of the proportion of sales of new energy vehicles and pure fuel vehicles.

The above mentioned BYD's new energy vehicles in December last year accounted for 95%, but this is still the official batch sales data, according to the amount of insurance, the proportion of BYD new energy vehicles in January this year is about 90%, and it was only increased to 95% in February. So before that, what was the proportion of new energy and pure fuel vehicles?

In 2017, BYD's new energy vehicle sales accounted for only about 16%, when the best-selling new energy vehicles were Qin DM and Qin EV, which only sold more than 20,000 vehicles a year, while BYD's best-selling pure fuel vehicle F3 sold 111,000 vehicles that year. Yes, the original model of this self-owned brand will still be the sales responsibility of BYD until 2017.

In 2018, the MPV Song MAX, which sold more than 10,000 per month, became the main sales force, but it did not last long, selling 93,000 vehicles throughout the year, and at this time, the other two fuel vehicles were mainly Song and F3, and the average monthly sales were only maintained at about 5,000 units.

It is worth noting that this year, BYD launched the Tang Second Generation Fuel Edition and the Qin Fuel Edition in June and September respectively, but unfortunately the sales were dismal and did not bring much contribution to BYD.

In 2019, F3, Song MAX and Song, the three most popular pure fuel models, combined with only 170,000 sales, in the context of the gradual shrinking sales of pure fuel vehicles, BYD's proportion of new energy vehicles increased to 44%.

In fact, in November of this year, BYD also launched a qin fuel version priced at 65,000-80,000 yuan, aiming at the market of Geely Emgrand, but in addition to just listing because of the lower price attracted a wave of attention, it was quickly forgotten by the market, from listing to suspension, in more than two years, the cumulative sales of less than 50,000 vehicles.

BYD's only successful fuel vehicle in the past two or three years is the Song Pro launched in July 2019, which once sold more than 10,000 vehicles after listing, and was regarded as a representative of the rise of BYD's fuel vehicles, and by 2020, it will become the only model in BYD's entire series with annual sales of more than 100,000 vehicles.

It is also the outstanding performance of Song Pro that makes BYD's sales decline in 2020, and the proportion of new energy vehicle sales has regressed from 44% in 2019 to 39%. Yes, in the past few years, the proportion of BYD's new energy vehicles is not increasing, and the fluctuation of pure fuel vehicles will greatly affect the overall proportion of new energy vehicles.

In June 2020, BYD launched the Song PLUS fuel version, which is the last pure fuel new car launched by BYD before it stopped production fuel vehicles. Its pricing is decent in the same level, but it is much higher than Song Pro, and its later sales performance is less than half of Song Pro's.

By 2021, the DM-i series officially took the stage, after the Han listed in July 2020, the production capacity was fully released to promote the surge in sales, this year BYD's pure fuel vehicle sales further shrunk, DM-i series and Han growth, by WHICHD's annual sales to 720,000 vehicles, while the proportion of new energy vehicle sales, from 39% in 2020 directly to 67%.

Seeing this, everyone should have a feeling that BYD did not think very early to completely abandon fuel vehicles, at least in mid-2020, after seeing the results of Song Pro, BYD also launched Song PLUS, hoping that in the price range of 11-15 million, which is the easiest to go, there can be a certain breakthrough, but it has not succeeded.

Before that, the Tang, Qin, Yuan, and Song series had pure fuel versions, but sales had either been weak, or they had been selling well for a year and a half in the early stages, and then fell into a slump. In addition to some models in some time periods to achieve monthly sales of more than 10,000, from 2017 to 2021, BYD has not been able to achieve an average monthly sales of more than 10,000 in a period of more than a year.

This is the basic development state of BYD in the past 5 years, and now that BYD DM-i and pure electric vehicle models are selling well, we can say many reasons, but everyone rarely asks such questions:

Why does BYD's pure fuel vehicle pull the crotch so much?

As mentioned above, UNTIL September 2020, BYD also launched a new pure fuel vehicle positioning A+ SUV - Song PLUS, before that, positioning the A-class Qin Pro fuel version, positioning the A-class Qin fuel version, positioning the A-class SUV Song Pro, and positioning the B-class SUV Tang fuel version, are all introduced to the market from June 2018 to November 2019.

That is to say, from June 2018 to September 2020, in a little more than two years, BYD launched a total of 5 new models covering the A-Class Sedan to the B-Class SUV range. It can be seen that at least until the second half of 2020, BYD has not only not shown signs of abandoning pure fuel vehicles, but has been working hard to expand the lineup and reverse the decline.

▲BYD Song Pro

Of course, just looking at the number of new cars, it is still a bit one-sided, and we can also see BYD's efforts to boost sales in the case of overall sales decline.

First look at BYD's only pure fuel model that can be regarded as a hot sale in the first two years - Song Pro, with a wheelbase of more than 2.7 meters, a length of 4.65 meters, and a width of 1860mm, when it was listed in 2019, it was a circle larger than the explosive SUVs such as Geely Boyue and Haval H6 at that time, but the starting price was only 89,800, and the top match was only 119,800, while the Haval H6, which was also equipped with a 1.5T engine, started at more than 100,000 and reached 134,000 at the top.

In contrast, Geely's standard small SUV Binyue, the price of the 1.5T version is 8.88-11.88 million (excluding the late updated 48V mixed version, and the price of this version is close to 130,000), which is only 1,000 yuan cheaper than Song Pro, and the body size of Song Pro is actually close to the standard of A+ SUV.

That is to say, BYD's best-selling pure fuel vehicles in recent years has achieved high sales through large and small, dislocated competition, and even so, Song Pro's sales volume has only been tied with Binyue in the more than two years after its listing.

This kind of dislocation competition, in fact, began earlier, the Tang fuel version listed in June 2018, the wheelbase is 2820mm, the length is 4870mm, and the width of the car is 1940mm, which is the size of the proper B-class SUV, compared with the Changan CS75 PLUS that positioned itself at the time, and the Tiggo 8 that Chery positioned itself as a B-class SUV, it was two laps larger.

▲ BYD Tang

From the guidance price of Tang 12.99-16.99 million, it is indeed more expensive than other hot-selling compact SUVs, but it should be noted that the Tang fuel version is the standard 2.0T engine of the whole series, there is no small displacement version, and there is no manual transmission model, combined with the specifications of the powertrain, you will find that this car is even cheaper than the mainstream compact SUV at that time:

As shown in the table, the 2.0T version of the 2020 CS75 PLUS has a starting price of 139,900 yuan, which is 10,000 more expensive than Tang's threshold, while the Tiggo 8 series has a maximum of only 1.6T engines, and under the premise that the size is one level smaller than Tang, the price is only 10,000 yuan lower than Tang.

You know, Chery's brand voice in recent years has been Geely, Changan, the Great Wall fell a lot, even so, Tiggo 8 in 2019 also won 80,000 sales, and later after the addition of Tiggo 8 PLUS, last year's sales were close to 120,000. And the BYD Don Fuel Edition?

In 2019, the Tang fuel version had 3937 vehicles, 13897 vehicles in 2020, and 3697 vehicles in 2021, adding up to 20,000 vehicles in three years.

It can be seen that the misplaced competition of Song Pro has still achieved certain results, but at a price of more than 130,000 yuan, even if Tang has set a price lower than the same level of compact SUVs, the sales scale is extremely bleak, and this is not a problem of appearance, interior or cost performance, because after the new DM-i version last year, the appearance and interior are basically the same Tang DM-i, the pricing is much more expensive than the Tang fuel version, and the monthly sales have reached the level of 10,000 vehicles.

▲ BYD Tang DM-i

That is to say, at least for pure fuel models, if there is a clear cost-effective advantage (similar to Song Pro), and the price is maintained at about 100,000 yuan, consumers are still willing to consider, and the price is a little higher, still willing to consider BYD, there are very few.

To put it bluntly, in the field of pure fuel oil, BYD has already conceded defeat in front of Geely, Changan, Great Wall and even SAIC, GAC and Chery. This is also a key factor for BYD to get rid of pure fuel vehicles so easily today.

summary

The news of the suspension of pure fuel vehicles has made BYD a model for the transformation of car companies in public opinion, but it cannot be ignored that BYD has not completely got rid of gasoline, accounting for half of its sales of DM-i hybrid vehicles, the biggest selling point is not to charge and save fuel, which also means that most of the car use scenarios of most consumers are still dependent on gasoline.

As for other car companies, after seeing BYD take the lead in getting rid of the pure fuel vehicle business, should they be nervous, or should they be on par with it as soon as possible? This is not a matter that can be clearly explained in two or three sentences, it involves the special product structure of each brand, as well as the prospects of different technical routes in the market.

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