There are always so many people who care more than your mother about whether you want to have children or not

Text | Karakush

Last night, Lantu Dreamer announced the pre-price: 380,000 to 480,000 yuan for the seven-seat version and 600,000 yuan for the four-seat customized version.

——Kicked off the prelude to this year's high-end MPV campaign. This year, there is also a sneak of more expensive MPV centralized online, including but not limited to:

Friends with abundant surplus food will also pay attention to Mercedes-Benz's medium-sized pure electric MPV EQT, which should also be launched in 2022.

Last year, the mid-to-high-end MPV market was very lively, mainly due to the introduction of overseas strong goods from joint venture factories, such as GAC Toyota Xena (300,000-410,000), Dongfeng Yueda Kia Kahua (28-34 million), Beijing Hyundai Kusitu (16-22 million) and so on.

This year's mainstream is obviously independent + new energy. Pure fuel vehicles, only Hongqi, it is rumored to be a 3.0L V6 engine.

The last time the track was so crowded was still the last time - 2015-2016, the national two-child policy was fully opened, seven seats were considered to be a flashpoint, and seven SUVs and MPVs were laid out in the name of the second child.

Now history is surprisingly self-copying. From 2021 to 2022, the intensive release of this wave of products has been singled on the national three-child policy.

Car companies, it seems that they are more concerned than your mother about whether you want to have children or not, and what to do if you have children. To arrange a family of five clearly, the three rows from a configuration that matches the "pseudo-needs of three generations of travel in the same cabin" to a strategic position just needed. A three-child family travel, it should be like this:

Three rows: dogs, big babies who can help, spare wipes & food

Second row: Sanwa, an all-knowing and all-powerful old mother

A row: the second baby who asks for more blessings, the old baby who does not drive and has no use and may beat a rake upside down

Three rows of people sit well, theoretically, naturally eliminating competition from six/seven-seat SUVs – six-seater/seven-seatER SUVs are often cited as an important obstacle to the underdevelopment of home MPVs because users are highly overlapping.

However, after 2016, the MPV market has laid a few common senses, which may still make the new products a little sloppy:

First, the market capacity itself is not large. In 2016, MPV sales reached their peak, with a cumulative sales of 2.467 million units in the whole year, accounting for nearly 10% of the passenger car market. From 2017 onwards, it has continued to decline rapidly, and by last year, the cumulative sales of 1.055 million vehicles, accounting for 5%.

The market capacity of the entire variety is 1-2 million. In the existing domestic market, there are 40 MPV product brands in production and sale.

Second, the inverted pyramid structure is becoming more and more prominent, and the trend is significant. Last year, MPV sales were flat overall, of which the mid-to-high-end market increased by 12.7% year-on-year, which was much higher than the overall passenger car market of 6.2%. And the low-end market is shrinking big and fast.

Going up became a trend for everyone. But the growth rate does not mean that everyone can share the "blue ocean" dividend equally, because -

Third, the pattern of MPV is top-heavy and the market concentration is very high. Last year, the top 10 MPV manufacturers sold 936,000 units, up 3.6% year-on-year, accounting for 88.7% of total MPV sales.

In particular, the mid-to-high-end market of more than 200,000 has always been steadily held in the hands of individual Models of Buick and Japan. Typical such as the Buick GL8, the high-pressure rule for 20 years, covering almost 200,000-500,000 markets, last year's bicycle share exceeded 16%. So that every time a new car is born, it is always polite to greet the GL8.

A different trend is that new cars can emerge, such as Sai Na, which has a share of 7.1% in January and February this year; such as Kustu, which can also get 2.5%. But it didn't affect GL8 too much, with its Share exceeding 20% in January-February. The rising stars are mainly due to the further decline of low-end models, mainly joint ventures.

Autonomy is not without breakthroughs, such as gaga Trumpchi M8, but it is a very small number of cases. Most of the autonomy is still in the low-end of 150,000 or even below 100,000.

A shackle is that the high-end market customer base is mainly oriented to business needs, and sales are stable. This year, some of the independent new cars are actually precisely want to eat this blank, such as Hongqi and Denza, which highlight business positioning; and for example, Dreamers, will also emphasize the two legs of IKEA.

How to persuade large customers to make business purchases, rather than looking at products, it is better to look at brands and word of mouth.

I have asked many chauffeurs before, why do they like to buy GL8, is it that the guests have sat down and said good? Answer, think more sister smash, because of the company's standards, only GL8 and Mercedes-Benz V can take high-level business reception orders, other cars do not meet the specifications, and then GL8 is relatively cheaper, buy a more than 200,000 in the middle and then re-engage in decoration, is the most cost-effective combination of means of production.

So personally, I feel that Hongqi will be the least stressed player.

The competitive pressure of other friends is extremely high. In yesterday's pre-sale live broadcast barrage, the SAIC Maxus MIFA 9, which occupies a sense of presence with high frequency, is a portrayal of anxiety.

It's not that there's no chance at all, there are two more —

One is that the power switch, the new energy rises. At present, the penetration rate of new energy in the MPV category is extremely low, only 3.32% last year, of which pure electric accounts for 2.71%. The intention of this batch of new cars is clear, while the hot iteration of market power, fuel vehicles can not subvert the product pattern, may be able to change lanes to overtake the way to complete in advance.

The other is, incremental customer base. The demand for public commerce is stable and is a stock market; some industry judgments point out that the incremental market will still come from home.

However, the force of the third child may not be very large. The premise of the third child is to have a second child, or even a fetus.

Although according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of second-child children rose from 30% in 2013 to 43% in 2021, more than 40% of the birth population is a second child; its peak is in 2017, reaching 50% - but the total birth rate is only 7.52 ‰; the natural population growth rate is 0.34 ‰.

In 2021, the number of births was only 10.62 million, a new low in recent years, down 43.6% from 2016. The home MPV market has been sluggish for the past five years, not without reason, with the impact of base indicators...

It's not that the car doesn't work, it's the family that doesn't work.

In the knowledge of "Why is MPV the best family car?" When asked, a large number of replies said that only when you have a complete family can you understand its true fragrance. Those who are entangled in MPV or SUV are not good family men who really want to buy MPV.

MPV is really a high threshold for using a car. For example, a high praise answer is explained like this: because opening an MPV is equivalent to cutting yourself off from the bubble girl, you are willing to give up the dream of a man out of deep love for the family, and the MPV is the concentrated embodiment of a man's intoxicated family.

How "few" men love their families, how "small" the window of the MPV is.

Therefore, instead of pinning hope on illusions, its future should be placed under the slow growth of the population of old men - aging society, the middle-aged and elderly population is the head of the continuous growth, how to let this group of middle-aged and elderly people pay money, rather than pointing to poor young people to have children, is the real vision.

Speaking of Lantu dreamers (after all, they announced that there will be an official listing, there will be no more ink) - middle-aged and elderly people may like it very much: equipped with a double door, convenient air suspension under the legs, Dana audio, and C-NCAP five-star safety.

Meet the fundamental needs of middle-aged and elderly people for the atmosphere, knees, entertainment, and longevity.