Weilai ET5, BYD SEAL, Changan C385, Euler Lightning Cat, plus the Xiaopeng P7 that has long been listed, the pure electric medium-sized vehicles of independent manufacturers and new forces will compete in an all-round way this year, and their only goal is to break the monopoly position of Model 3 in this market segment.
In the first two years, whether it is an independent large factory or a new car-making force, because of the difference in product positioning and the choice of market entry point, it has never formed a head-on competition with Tesla. In 2021, even with 47% of its production capacity for exports, the Model 3 still has more than 150,000 vehicles in the whole year, ranking 6th in the entire mid-size car market. This ability to produce, sell and save orders on top of the scale, looking at the entire Chinese auto market, there is no second one.
In 2022, with the listing of a pure electric medium-sized car of its own brand, can this pattern be changed?
Is Tesla privileged?
Any strong person who creates rules and evaluation systems has the privilege of being.
All domestic flagship mobile phones can be larger than Apple's screen, faster charging, narrower bezels, and more sufficient camera hardware, but why can Apple still win 2/3 of the market share in the high-end mobile phone market of more than 4,000 yuan?
Because Apple is the strongest person who creates smart phone rules and evaluation systems, even if Apple is still using ugly bangs, turtle speed charging, the frame that can stop the aircraft carrier, and the toothpaste-style camera module hardware, these things that apple believes only need to spend a small price to improve, and the leading generations of self-developed processors, highly coordinated software and hardware systems, seamless circulation and consumer sunk costs of the ecology, compared with nothing, it is not worth mentioning.
In the field of smart electric vehicles, Tesla is also a strong person.
Tesla was the first to define the collaborative self-development of software and hardware in the automotive field, defining the high performance, supercharge, long endurance, intelligence, and direct operation of electric vehicles, defining the entire online closed-loop system, and even redefining the manufacture of automobiles today. After this, any new car-making force that has risen is moving forward with reference to the path explored by Tesla, without exception.
Therefore, even if Tesla's poor workmanship, unstable quality, and negative reputation have been repeatedly broken, it seems that it has never affected Tesla's continuous order volume. According to the official website information, the current order Tesla Model 3, at least need to wait 16-20 weeks.
Whoever wants to compete head-on with Tesla must pile up the core. This core part includes the three-electric system, assisted driving, and the independent development and mastery of the intelligent cockpit, and then what revolutionary interaction, humanized experience, and detail optimization. If you are lagging behind on the core basis, or can only rely on the supplier package solution, and there is no advantage in price, it is difficult to change the situation no matter how many details are left, let alone rely on some "magic tricks" to win in the risk.
For example, if there is an autonomous electric vehicle now, with zero hundred acceleration "hanging" Model 3 of 6.1 seconds, or endurance "hanging" Model 3 of 556km (CLTC working conditions) as the selling point, this parameter-level comparison method will not have any effect, and it is impossible to establish a "I am stronger than Model 3" consumer cognition.
Because according to this logic, the iPhone 13, which only has a 20W charging power, has long been rubbed on the ground by a domestic flagship mobile phone of 100W and 120W. But what about the facts? The consumer groups of the two types of mobile phones do not overlap at all.
Because the strong who have created the rules and evaluation system have this privilege, they can only drink soup behind their backs.
So, is there a chance for autonomous mid-size electric vehicles?
To answer this question, it depends on the positioning of each company for the target group and the target market.
In 2021, more than 70% of Tesla's sales will be in first-tier and new first-tier cities, and the sales volume of third-tier cities and below will account for only about 5%. Not only Tesla, but also the new car-making forces, including Weilai and Xiaopeng, are also similar sales structures. Highly popular stores, charging infrastructure, and forward-looking consumption concepts, supplemented by certain policy support, allow these new brands with new feelings and new stories to find a large enough market in high-tier cities.
At the same time, behind the Model 3 stands an Elon Musk, in the purchase of electric vehicles is increasingly evolving to consumer electronics, a topical and even a certain degree of deified soul figure, has a strong self-replication influence. Even if consumers do not understand vertical integration research and development, do not understand the electronic and electrical architecture, do not understand the 4860 battery, do not understand the integrated die-casting body, it does not matter, "Tesla" three words in the context of viral word-of-mouth spread over the years, has naturally become synonymous with advanced intelligent high-performance electric vehicles, this brand for high-line city fashion, upstart, elite crowd, itself is a golden signboard.
In the same way, Weilai and Xiaopeng can be pushed.
So while the Model 3 has the ability to sell 20,000+ vehicles a month, the Xiaopeng P7 also achieved sales of more than 60,000 units in 2021. Next, WEILAI ET5 is expected to be the same idea, relying on core capabilities, high performance, high intelligence and car service systems in high-line cities to compete head-on with those potential people who are still dissatisfied with Tesla.
Among the next three cars, BYD Seal, Euler Lightning Cat and Changan C385, the most likely to replicate in high-line cities with high share is BYD. After years of repeatedly hitting the south wall of the new energy brand building, BYD has almost no cheap independent brand label in high-line cities, and includes blade batteries, e-platform 3.0, gallium nitride power devices and a series of core technology self-research dissemination, to a certain extent, formed the cognition in high-line cities. Combined with BYD Han's high share in high-tier cities, SEALs have the potential to make breakthroughs in high-tier cities.
And Euler because of the previous main transport type electric vehicles, such models are relatively cold in first-tier cities. After stopping taking orders for black cats and white cats, the next model that Euler reshapes the brand recognition image will start from the compact ballet cat to the larger lightning cat and punk cat, and gradually get rid of the inherent impression of Euler = car. However, this kind of cognitive cultivation, on the one hand, will take a long time, on the other hand, the retro styling controversy of Euler's new car will also be a potential risk.
As for Changan, due to the current low proportion of new energy sales, coupled with almost all of them being micro-electric vehicles and operating vehicles, there is not much voice in the mainstream electric vehicle market. At present, Avita 11, which Is changan and Ningde times and Huawei jointly cooperate, is in the pre-sale transmission cycle, and Changan's own C385 has also entered a warm-up period.
In the context of the current new energy sales force is still in high-line cities, Changan C385, which has almost no brand endorsement in high-line cities, is the largest difficulty in opening high-line cities. In low- and medium-tier cities, the interest in mainstream pure electric vehicles is also declining exponentially compared with high-tier cities. Therefore, it is expected that Changan will launch a new brand and a new marketing service system on C385, so as to achieve a cut with Changan's existing brand cognition.
Overall, in the private consumer market, under the premise of normal production capacity supply, Xiaopeng P7 is expected to continue the upward trend since 2021, WEILAI ET5 is expected to become a new explosive model of WEILAI, SEAL borrows BYD's current market heat and channel construction, and also has the opportunity to become another 200,000 yuan growth point outside Han.
The Euler Lightning Cat will face the challenge of brand recognition remodeling and retro styling controversy, as for Chang'an, the marketing promotion of C385 can only enter the core market under the new brand and new system.
But can these models "encircle" the Model 3? In fact, this should not be a problem for these models to think about at the moment. The space for the new energy vehicle market is still very large, Although Model 3 has a scale, but other brands have not entered the stage of zero-sum game, everyone is working together to promote the proportion of new energy vehicles in new car sales, and the share that everyone hopes to seize comes from fuel vehicles.
Especially when the consumer population of Model 3 is no longer the initial geek image, but more mainstream consumer groups enter, the whole cake of new energy vehicles is getting bigger. At this time, new entrants are thinking about which piece of cake to cut and how much to cut, rather than thinking about how to cut other people's cakes.
Write at the end
Tesla's domestic production is not only impacting the sales of models at the same price, but also the impact on misplaced price products and the potential impact of many aspects of the entire automotive industry chain. When this influence has been more and more recognized by independent brands, the corresponding system layout and product launch have also been launched synchronously, and 2022-2023 is the window period for independent brands to compete head-on with Tesla's dominant market.
Tesla has drastically reduced the number of traditional mechanical components in the car, and significantly increased the proportion of semiconductor devices that comply with Moore's Law, and the proportion of semiconductor devices in the total cost of the Model 3 has reached 70%. This makes Tesla's products also follow the law of product evolution in the field of consumer electronics, that is, the performance of new products is significantly better than that of the previous generation, while the cost can be kept unchanged or even lower, and the evolutionable characteristics of products also allow the leading edge to be maintained.
Therefore, if you want to compete with Tesla, if you can't catch up and surpass in the core field, it can only be a marketing slogan. Really falling into the consumer market, we still have to find differentiation, to compete for different groups of people. Just like we all know in our hearts, even if domestic mobile phones are now full of products and technologies, the only one who can really break the wrist with Apple and Samsung is actually Huawei, which is still sanctioned.
You can avoid Tesla's shortcomings, but that doesn't mean you have its advantages. Only when the underlying strength continues to increase, it is possible to truly promote the return of price and value in the market, it is possible to force Tesla to show more sincerity to consumers, and it is possible to truly break the wall erected by Tesla.