The ancients often said that "the great plague is only three", which means that no matter how big the plague is, it will basically "stop the flag" within three years of the outbreak.
Fast forward to the covid-19 pandemic, which has lasted for more than two years, and our lives have undergone unprecedented changes: we are used to wearing masks when we go out, scanning health codes, reducing unnecessary travel... Many wonder why the pandemic has lasted so long.
In the early morning of March 17, the Circulation Personnel of the Shanghai Qingpu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention conducted a platoon survey in relevant places.
In fact, in the long history of human warfare and "epidemics", plagues and human beings have won and lost each other, and it is unrealistic to want to fight quickly and make a quick decision.
For the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out during his recent inspection in Hainan that the current global new crown pneumonia epidemic is still very serious, especially the prevention and control work cannot be relaxed. Persistence is victory. It is necessary to adhere to the supremacy of the people and the supremacy of life, adhere to the external prevention of import and internal prevention of rebound, adhere to scientific precision and dynamic clearance, and pay close attention to various measures for epidemic prevention and control. It is necessary to overcome paralyzing thoughts, war-weary emotions, fluke psychology, and slack mentality, in view of the new characteristics of virus mutation, improve scientific and accurate prevention and control skills, improve various emergency plans, strictly implement normalized prevention and control measures, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.
Experts interviewed
Li Huacheng, dean of the Institute of Medicine and Civilization of Shaanxi Normal University
Professor Hu Shanlian, School of Public Health, Fudan University
Professor Chen Youhua, School of Sociology, Nanjing University
Wang Huiqiu, vice chairman of the Psychosocial Operations Group of the Chinese Rehabilitation Medicine Association
This article is written by | Life Times reporter Gao Yang
This article was edited | Xu Wenting
"Pandemic is only three" is not absolute
In the long history of mankind for thousands of years, plague occupies a considerable proportion, and indeed many have lasted for about 3 years.
According to the record:
From 430 BC to 427 BC, the Great Plague occurred in Athens, and nearly 1/2 of the population died;
From 1629 to 1631, a large plague broke out in Milan, killing more than 250,000 people;
The Plague of Justinian, which broke out in 541 AD, and the Great Plague of London, which broke out in 1665, both lasted about 2 years.
The last global pandemic was the Spanish flu, which infected about 500 million people and killed 25 to 40 million people between 1918 and 1919, but lasted only 18 months. Under various historical phenomena, the folk gradually have the saying that "the great epidemic is not three".
Spanish flu of 1918.
However, Li Huacheng, dean of the Institute of Medicine and Civilization of Shaanxi Normal University, believes that the "great epidemic is only three" is only a summary of the experience of the ancients, and only refers to the duration of an outbreak of some infectious diseases for no more than three years, rather than the existence of the disease for no more than three years.
Li Huacheng introduced that many infectious diseases in history have existed for hundreds of years or even longer, but they are intermittent attacks. For example, leprosy that ravaged Europe in the 12th and 13th centuries has been documented as early as around 1550 BC.
Leprosy ravaged Europe in the 12th and 13th centuries.
Leprosy, which lasted for three thousand years, still suffers from 200,000 people around the world every year. Smallpox is as old as humans, and has been endemic in many countries and regions until the last 100 years, when it became extinct in the world, and it is the only virus that has been eradicated by humans.
A single plague in the world often lasts more than 3 years. The Black Death in the Middle Ages peaked in England from 1348 to 1350, but spread throughout Eurasia for at least eight or nine years.
The Black Death in the Middle Ages was tragic.
Cholera began as a pandemic in 1817 and has erupted seven times so far, each lasting more than 10 years, sometimes for more than 20 years. Li Huacheng said that this shows that the smaller the epidemic area examined, the shorter the "epidemic time" obtained, and even if the plague is temporarily subsided, there is still a risk of recurrence.
It should be emphasized that although many germs have not yet been eradicated, they have never stopped the tenacious development of human beings.
Li Huacheng said that human beings have never given up fighting the plague, and in the process, the level of prevention and treatment of infectious diseases has been continuously improved: leprosy has taught human beings to "isolate"; cholera has made people know the importance of clean water and hand hygiene; the plague tells us to maintain public health and eliminate rat diseases; the spread of tuberculosis and hepatitis has promoted the development and popularization of vaccines. Medicine has been reborn in one test after another, giving birth to serums, vaccines, antibiotics...
Where is the COVID-19 epidemic difficult to prevent?
Since the new century, viruses such as Ebola, SARS, MERS, and the new crown have sounded alarm bells for mankind. Infectious disease experts around the world estimate that there are about 1.67 million viruses in nature, of which 800,000 have the potential to infect humans, while humans have identified only more than 4,000.
In January, Michael Ryan, head of the World Health Organization's Health Emergencies Programme, said: "We cannot eliminate covid-19 this year and may never be able to eliminate it. The pandemic will become part of the ecosystem. "So, what is the reason for the continuation of this epidemic?
Widely disseminated
Statistics released by Johns Hopkins University on April 12 show that as of noon on the same day, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world exceeded 500 million, and the cumulative number of deaths was 6.18 million.
The virus mutates too quickly
Hu Shanlian, a professor at the School of Public Health of Fudan University, said that from Alpha, Beta, Delta to Omicron, there are many mutated strains of the new crown virus that cannot be ignored. In particular, The Global Pandemic is highly contagious, highly susceptible to insidious transmission, and has strong adaptability to conditions and survives longer in the environment.
Treatment is limited
Globally, COVID-19 vaccine coverage is not high enough, especially for high-risk groups such as the elderly. At present, there are still no specific drugs for new crown pneumonia, and existing drugs need to be observed and studied for a long time.
People and goods are highly mobile
Chen Youhua, a professor at the School of Sociology of Nanjing University, said that today's degree of globalization is unprecedented in human history, and the frequent movement of people and goods, as well as the differences in epidemic prevention strategies, concepts and capabilities of various countries, have brought difficulties to epidemic prevention and control.
Although people have been able to significantly reduce the spread of the disease and the number of deaths through enhanced personal protection, effective isolation, vaccination and other methods, the impact of the epidemic on the psychosocial level has not been weakened.
The World Health Organization judges that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of all human beings will last for 10 years, or even more than 20 years. The U.S. Department of Disease Control and Prevention noted that the epidemic has affected the mental health of more than half of adolescents. "Epidemic psychological disease" has spread in campuses across the United States, and school violence, anxiety, depression, drug abuse, and suicidal thoughts are becoming more and more common.
Recently, the World Health Organization also announced a new concept - "pandemic fatigue", which refers to people's adverse reactions to long-term control measures caused by the new crown virus pandemic, including exhaustion, and even feeling hopeless, anxious and lonely about the future.
Wang Huiqiu, deputy director of the Social Psychology Operation Group of the Chinese Rehabilitation Medicine Association, said that the recent outbreak of the epidemic in many parts of the mainland has caused many residents to be isolated and sealed, some complaining that "the days are dull and life is upside down", some complaining that "anxiety is extremely uncertain, the future is uncertain", and some are difficult to get along with children and the elderly... Such people inevitably have a negative mentality, become more sensitive, and even be susceptible to online rumors. People who already suffer from underlying mental illnesses such as depression, anxiety disorder, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia are more likely to have mood swings and changes in mental activity. Hu Shanlian said that the protracted epidemic has a great impact on people's psychology, which is very easy to make people tired and relax their vigilance, which will lead to outbreaks and recurrences of the epidemic.
Do a good job of three "responses", persistence is victory
According to the announcement issued by the World Health Organization, China's achievements in epidemic prevention and control have attracted worldwide attention. This is inseparable from the mainland's general policy of "preventing imports from abroad, preventing proliferation from within," "four early days," and "dynamically clearing zero."
A community in Shenzhen was closed due to the epidemic.
At present, the direction of virus mutation remains to be seen, and the future trend of the epidemic is difficult to predict, it is still the most important to adhere to the "dynamic clearance" and achieve the greatest effect with the smallest investment as much as possible. Having experienced the test of the epidemic such as SARS, we have fought a beautiful annihilation war every time, and I believe that this time we will also defeat the new crown virus.
"In human history, plagues have not been accidental, but more common." Li Huacheng said that people are anxious about the new crown epidemic at present, which just shows that human beings have not experienced a large-scale plague for a long time, which is also a manifestation of the continuous progress of public health. He stressed that pathogenic microorganisms will continue to exist, and human beings need to actively face the threat of plague, form a grand understanding, and do not complain about the world. At the same time, we must actively explore new ways of epidemic prevention and control, summarize new experiences, form new models, and try to control their harmfulness. Only by continuously reviewing and improving the prevention and control mechanism of infectious diseases and improving the ability to respond to public health crises can we gain "opportunities" in the "crisis" and create a safer social development environment and living environment.
Wang Huiqiu said that in the face of the pandemic, taking the initiative to adapt to social changes and reduce conflicts and confrontations will help stabilize emotions. Martin Seligman, the "father of positive psychology," argues that humans have greater potential to make their lives better, whenever and wherever they are. Experts remind that under the continuous epidemic situation, we must do a good job in three "responses":
01
Respond to the "psychological disease of the epidemic" and find interpersonal support
Looking at the epidemic from the perspective of historical development, everything can pass, maintain the hope for the future, and do not ignore the beautiful things around you even in times of crisis. You should learn to build good interpersonal relationships, cherish the time when you are at home, and you can do one thing together, such as cooking, exercising, chasing dramas, or making old photos into small videos.
02
Deal with "pandemic fatigue" and reduce confrontation with thinking
On the one hand, we must reduce the sense of confrontation with epidemic prevention management from the heart, and take the initiative to do a good job in epidemic prevention measures such as washing hands frequently, wearing masks, and maintaining social distancing. On the other hand, calm down and think about what life insights you have gained in this experience, re-examine life in "trepidation", reconnect emotions in "isolation", learn to live in harmony with nature, and cherish the present.
03
Deal with the "sense of meaninglessness" and find your own rhythm
It is recommended to make a list of tasks that will make you feel happy and implement it, such as a scientific eating, getting up, and sleeping schedule, and regular arrangement will improve a person's sense of control. You can also focus on doing something that you think makes sense and enjoy the process, such as using your free time to learn a new skill or take a certificate. When people do something with their hearts, they will have a "flow experience", that is, entering a state of self-forgetfulness, which can enhance the sense of fulfillment and meaning.
If the results are still not effective after repeated adjustments, they can call the psychological counseling hotline or go to a professional mental health institution to seek professional help.
2022 is the third year that humanity is battling the new crown virus. Three years after the pandemic, the virus is still stubbornly fighting back. But I believe that as long as we do not lie flat with a fast system, grit our teeth and then insist, we will eventually "keep the clouds open and see the moon.". ▲
Editor of this issue: Liu Yunxuan