Introduction | to conform to the market to be undefeated
On April 12, the Association released its latest retail sales statistics for March 2022. Hongguang MINI EV and Tesla Model Y both surpassed the "god car" Xuanyi, and five new energy vehicles entered the top ten of passenger car sales, and four entered the top five, which was unimaginable two years ago.
In March, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 28.2%, and the target of 20% penetration rate in 2025 set by the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" has been completed more than three years ahead of schedule.
It seems that overnight, new energy vehicles have completed the "encirclement" of fuel vehicles. Previously, everyone was widely worried about whether the planning of "Roadmap 2.0" was too radical, but from the current situation, there are still 20% pure fuel vehicles in 2030, and 40% of hybrid vehicles in 2035, which seems to be conservative.
What happened to lead to the rapid rise of new energy models? Let Che Jujun take everyone to see it together.
1, the top ten new energy accounted for half, oil trucks are not pure?
If we look at the top 10 passenger car sales in March, we will find that not only the proportion of new energy models has reached half, but the remaining fuel vehicles seem to be somewhat pedigree "impure".
Camry needless to say, as early as 2015, it has launched a dual-engine hybrid version of the model, so many years has been the fuel version and the hybrid version of the equal emphasis. Toyota Twin Engine is also the earliest hybrid system to open the market in China, and now the cumulative sales have exceeded 20 million vehicles.
Xuanyi and Langyi have also tried new energy early and launched a pure electric version of "oil to electricity", but because of high prices, poor endurance, and outdated design concepts, they have not set off market waves. Since November last year, Xuan Yijia has pushed the e-POWER version of the model, using a range extender hybrid system, which can be regarded as keeping up with the pace of the two fields. Yidong still retains the pure electric version, and the sales volume accounts for 16%.
▲Image source: Changan Automobile official website
As for The Changan CS75 PLUS, it has also launched plug-in hybrid models, but the market feedback is not good and has been discontinued. Last year, it declared an FCV hydrogen fuel cell model at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which should be listed this year as planned. However, the most emotional thing for Che Jujun is the dispute between it and the Haval H6 SUV rankings that year, the two fought vigorously, but the CS75 PLUS always seems to be a breath of relief.
Now it has finally caught up, but the first and second places of SUVs have long been taken away by two new energy models, and their wins and losses have long been the focus of the media chase. It's like a warrior who has been thinking about how to defeat his opponent and win the first place in the world all his life, but the moment he defeats his old opponent, he finds that he has already been surpassed by several descendants. I think that I am old, and my physical fitness and learning ability are difficult to surpass, which is somewhat regrettable.
These ten cars are undoubtedly the head models of major car companies, and even the last ranked Changan Yidong has sales of more than 20,000 vehicles. In the current situation of serious two-level differentiation in the market, it is already equivalent to the volume of a medium-sized car company. For comparison, Mazda's total sales in March were 8,608 units.
Five of these ten cars are pure electric and plug-in hybrid models, two have HEV oil-electric hybrid versions, and one has pure electric versions, which seems to have very illustrative of the attitude of car companies. That is, the trend of hybridization and pure electrification has become unstoppable, and they will gradually eat away the share of fuel vehicles.
2. From "I want to buy" to "I want to buy"
Why overnight, energy-saving and new energy vehicles have risen in an all-round way, many people think that thanks to the guidance of "Roadmap 2.0", in fact, things are not so simple.
▲Image source: "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap"
Because the original roadmap has been formulated as early as 2015-2016, short-term goals have been proposed, such as 2020, the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars will reach 5.0L/100km, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for more than 7%. However, from the perspective of reality, the development of the domestic automobile industry has not "outperformed the market". What is the problem with adjusting the strategy in 2021 and proposing the Roadmap 2.0, but reaching a penetration rate of 20% more than three years in advance?
The answer is actually very simple, that is, a major change in the C-end user group. In the past, in order to encourage the development of new energy vehicles, the state gave a large number of subsidies and preferential policies, which were essentially "for me to buy", with little effect. In recent years, this market has gradually become "I want to buy", and consumers have begun to voluntarily buy energy-saving and new energy vehicles.
There are many reasons for this doping, in the field of pure electric, Tesla should be regarded as the greatest. In fact, electric vehicles are not born to "run fast", taking the 2013 BAIC new energy EV as an example, it can basically represent the average level of domestic pure electric vehicles at that time. The new car is equipped with a 45kW electric motor, the maximum speed is only 125km/h, and the pure electric mileage is 140km. The ES210 pure electric B-class sedan launched by BAIC in the same year is a high-end model of the year, equipped with an 80kW motor, with a pure electric mileage of 175km and a guidance price of 346,900 yuan.
It is conceivable that such a model is not tempting for ordinary users. The performance is not as good as the class of fuel vehicles, and the mileage is still stretched. In particular, the charging facilities at that time were still extremely imperfect, and the still high prices after the huge subsidies, as well as the problems such as virtual endurance and power battery attenuation, which were common at that time, were even more prohibitive.
Even if pure electric vehicles have improved in the next few years, they have only increased the endurance to two or three hundred kilometers, and they are still synonymous with low-speed cars, lacking the highlights that impress C-end users. Of course, taxi and online car drivers are willing to accept, because the operating costs of poor electric vehicles are far lower than those of fuel vehicles, not to mention the various policy care at that time, and the owners of the earliest electric vehicle running travel services did make money.
Tesla has greatly improved the situation after the emergence of a brand that starts from the high end, the first car launched is the two-door sports car Roadster, then the luxury model Model S and Model X, and then the more familiar Model 3 and Model Y.
Tesla has brought a lot of new ways to play, the first is to create a proprietary pure electric platform. In the past, most of those low-speed electric vehicles were based on the transformation of the fuel vehicle platform, which had inherent disadvantages in space optimization and layout, and was not conducive to the improvement of handling performance. After Tesla launched the pure electric platform, it chose to lay the power battery flat on the chassis, strictly speaking, it is actually the battery and the battery protection device to form the chassis, so that the center of gravity of the vehicle is closer to the center of the position, and it is more down, with a good control foundation.
Then there is a strong increase in endurance, including the introduction of a cylindrical battery with high energy density, improving the management ability of BMS batteries, and allowing the power battery to work more in the right condition, which not only achieves longer endurance, but also greatly improves the "fidelity" of endurance. Then it is to strengthen performance, strengthen autonomous driving capabilities, and strengthen intelligence. The electric car has become a "big toy", it is better to drive than ordinary fuel vehicles, more fun, and the practicality has also improved a lot, and the natural acceptance has also been raised.
Since 2014, there have been many "blue Teslas" in Shanghai, even if the landing price at that time exceeded one million, and even if they could not enjoy the green card (they did not enter the new energy catalog at that time), there were still people who were willing to buy them to taste early, indicating that Tesla did have a lot of merit. Of course, this group of users is also the most miserable by the "cutting leeks", model 3 domestic production, the price fell again and again, so that the preservation rate of early vehicles is unbearable. Tesla's quality is also the focus of controversy: uneven seams, abnormal noise, rain leakage, black screen, driving problems are not uncommon.
Subsequently, Tesla disclosed the patent and tried to pull more car companies to "join the company". Of course, in che jujun's view, even if Tesla discloses these patents, other car companies may not use much. Its biggest contribution is to define that electric vehicles can be built in this way, and can really impress users, and car companies can succeed in this direction.
Of course, Tesla has many innovations, such as direct operation mode, assisted driving, and the promotion of fast charging, which have a very big impact on the new forces such as Weilai and Xiaopeng.
Speaking of hybrid vehicles, the green mixed vehicles of the early years can be said to have a very bad reputation. The first is that the price is too high, after all, the two sets of oil and electricity systems are parallel, and they have to carry a large battery, and the cost will naturally go up. And the early green hybrid vehicle has a big problem, that is, the general use of P2 structure parallel hybrid technology, the motor and engine are coupled with the mechanical transmission. The control logic is also simple: the system decides when to use oil, when to use electricity, and when to mix oil and electricity.
The advantages and disadvantages of this system are obvious, the advantage is that when the power is sufficient, it is indeed very fuel-efficient, the driving texture is also good, and the power is better than that of pure fuel vehicles, after all, there is a motor "help". The disadvantage is that once the power is fed, the engine has to pull the vehicle with two sets of systems to run, not only the fuel consumption is not low, the driving experience is also plummeting, and the maintenance cost of this architecture model is obviously higher than that of ordinary fuel vehicles.
This leads to the problem that early plug-in hybrid models are still not tempting for ordinary users. Because only users who have charging conditions at home, can accept hybridization, and reject pure electric will consider, this audience is too small. Even the green-brand hybrid models encouraged and subsidized by the state are far from selling the ordinary HEV hybrid models of the two fields.
▲Image source: BYD official website
In 2021, BYD "repented" and began to launch a DM-i super hybrid system similar to Honda's i-MMD system, which also allowed BYD's hybrid car to finally have "hematopoietic" ability, and significantly reduced the price of hybrid vehicles, which completely activated the market. After the big technological breakthroughs in electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles, the entire market has ushered in earth-shaking changes.
If it is said that in the past, buying electric vehicles as a green card and online car-hailing was a last resort, and now it is difficult to buy new energy, and Shanghai has seen a situation in which buying BYD models has to go through the relationship and approve the notes, but still waits for several months. Coupled with the rising cost of lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, which were once known for their depreciation, have now become wealth management products.
And after entering 2022, oil prices have repeatedly climbed new highs, which has made new energy vehicles more competitive, which can sweep away the previous haze.
3. Is the fuel vehicle really going?
Back to the previous question, has the fuel vehicle really gone? We have to look at this comprehensively.
The status quo is indeed unfriendly for fuel vehicles, oil prices have risen again and again, Che Jujun himself added a tank of oil before as long as 250 yuan, and now it is close to 400 yuan, feeling very hurt. After entering the national sixth stage, the response of car companies is actually very weak. Many models have chosen the national sixth stage "power reduction", some look at the parameters seem to have not changed, but it is obvious to feel that the power of the low-speed section has shrunk, and some simply the parameters have dropped.
What is more frightening is some "national six sequelae", such as the problem of the volkswagen tanyue particle trap that has been boiling up before, that is, the technical level has not solved the basic emissions of the engine, and the capture device is selected to be installed in the back, which is very easy to block after long-term operation. Then there is the increase in fuel consumption, the decrease in power, and the cost of maintenance is also very high. If the follow-up implementation of China VII and the further tightening of regulations, it will be an absolute disaster for pure fuel vehicles.
In addition, the double point policy is becoming more and more unfriendly to pure fuel vehicles, and car companies have to spend a lot of money to "buy" points from Tesla and BYD, which is a continuous "bloodletting" process.
▲Image source: Dragon Pig - Weibo of the cart
Then the new energy vehicle must be reliable? Not necessarily. The second wave of new energy did come more fiercely, but like the first wave (500,000 vehicles at the end of 2015), there is a phenomenon that turnips are fast and do not wash mud.
For example, Tesla has frequent quality problems, and after December last year, Tesla has carried out many recalls because of the steering knuckle, trunk cover, front trunk lock latch, heat pump electronic expansion valve and motor inverter. There are more problems with the major new forces, like Weima and Xiaopeng, two old new forces, have played "lock electricity" with users to try to cover up the problem. BYD also frequent fires, after the transformation of the original lithium iron phosphate battery to introduce the blade battery, it seems that BYD's battery is not so reliable.
With state support and user support, new energy vehicle companies seem to have a tendency to "pamper and be proud". Not to mention the price increase, even the quality can not be guaranteed.
▲Image source: Geely Automobile's official website
But in other words, compared with the PHEV model with a large battery, the unplugged hybrid is not a new energy, but it also has a huge advantage. For example, the GREAT Wall and Geely's DHT fuel consumption is 4-6L, the driving experience is stronger than the same level of 2.0T models, and there is no need to worry about mileage, depreciation, charging difficulties, there is still a large number of markets.
According to technical route 2.0, there are still 40% of hybrid models by 2035, which is still a big market. In Che Jujun's view, fuel vehicles may be transformed in the direction of HEV in a large area.
Car gathering summary
New energy is indeed a general trend, has begun to be accepted by the majority of C-end users, but the current is indeed facing the choice of whether to correct the deviation appropriately, there are many problems, but it is covered by the voice of the big wave. At the same time, the development of hybrid technology has actually given fuel vehicles a new life, and it is worth looking forward to whether it can usher in the second spring.
In a word: only by conforming to the development of the market and respecting the needs of the people can we stand in an invincible position.