CITIC Securities: The inflection point of the epidemic is approaching, and the repair market is about to occur
The inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai is approaching, and it is expected that the social clearance will be gradually realized; this round of epidemic has seriously dragged down the economy, and it is difficult for growth to return to the target level in the first half of the year, and it is expected that the expansion of investment in the second quarter will be accelerated by policies, supply chain guidance and consumption stimulation; due to the epidemic, the medium-term repair market has been delayed, but the steady growth market will be more clear and durable.
First of all, under the trend of a sharp decline in the propagation coefficient and a sharp increase in the capacity of the square cabin, it is expected that Shanghai will basically achieve the goal of zero social clearance around April 20. Secondly, it is expected that the economic situation in the first quarter of this year will be weaker than in the third quarter of 2021, while the economy will continue to be under pressure in the second quarter under the influence of the epidemic, and the negative impact will not be weaker than that in the first quarter. Finally, the policy of stabilizing the real estate and service industry bailout is expected to accelerate, and at present, all departments are concentrating on channeling the supply chain and industrial production in the Yangtze River Delta region, and after the epidemic is controlled, it is expected that the policy will fully stimulate consumption according to the damage.
At present, monetary easing such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts is difficult to directly alleviate investors' concerns, the market is still waiting for the inflection point of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production, the medium-term repair market may be delayed, but pessimistic expectations have been fully released, the market is about to erupt, it is recommended to firmly stabilize the main line of growth, and lay out low valuation and expected low varieties.
Haitong Securities: The index level shows that the market adjustment has been significant
(1) Historical data shows that the market bottomed out: high-dividend stocks > broad-based index > fund heavy stocks, this time the high dividend stocks 21/8 have bottomed out, and the recent fund heavy stocks are making up for the decline. (2) Compared with history, this round of CSI 300 decline time and space is obvious, the valuation is close to the beginning of 19 years, and the valuation of the ChiNext index is lower than the bottom of the epidemic in March 2020. (3) This year's style is similar to 12 years, the annual value is slightly superior, the growth is expected to be dominant in stages, and it continues to focus on the main line of stable growth, such as financial real estate and new infrastructure, the latter is more flexible.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities: Waiting for the U-shaped bottom to be constructed, there are still challenges in the short term
How do you view this RRR cut? Interpretation one, this is a reduction in the RRR under a relatively abundant liquidity, and the signal significance is the mainstay. Interpretation two, price-based tools are not the first choice, and recent policies will continue to focus on structure. Interpretation three, the market has previously been included in the high easing expectations, facing challenges and pressures in the short term. Interpretation four, it is not appropriate to use this small reduction of the RRR as a "starting gun" to become a new round of market, and the recovery of the epidemic will be the key. The epidemic is an important issue at present, and it will also have an impact on the focus and rhythm of economic policy until the epidemic improves. Regardless of the magnitude of the RRR cut, it may not become the "starting gun" of a new round of market, and the probability of the market grinding period will continue.
We believe that the market is in the medium-term U-shaped bottom period, and there are still some challenges and pressures in the short term. The tone and configuration are based on wait-and-see and defense, and the specific industries focus on: banking, agriculture, utilities, real estate chain, CXO, military industry, etc.
Guotai Junan Securities: Continue to exchange positions, the value market is far from over
The "small step" RRR cut illustrates the limitations of monetary easing. The index 3100-3400 oscillated, and the revaluation of real assets and sectors with stable cash flow and the company's value did not end.
The RRR cut will not be effective in driving the stock market's risk-free interest rate down. On Friday, the central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions, releasing about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. However, for stock investors, the news of the RRR cut is difficult to boost market confidence, and if the national standing meeting is held on April 16, the index should rise like a rainbow. On the contrary, the "small step" RRR cut shows that the space for monetary policy easing is being constrained by the inversion of the overseas monetary tightening cycle and the Sino-US interest rate differential that has not been encountered in a decade. Secondly, this also represents the weakening of the marginal effect of wide money to a certain extent, the continuous reduction of reverse repurchase and interbank certificate of deposit interest rates, and macro liquidity has been in an extremely loose situation. The reduction of the RRR and interest rate does not mean that the risk-free interest rate of the stock market must fall, the key lies in the willingness of investors to hold the currency. The lack of credit policies, inflationary pressures and the impact of the epidemic have increased the willingness of residents and businesses to hold coins.
Continue to swap positions: The style plate rotates within the value, not the growth/value switch. In the exchange, there are still many investors looking forward to the switch between value and growth again. Even if there is, we believe that the opportunity for a growth rebound is fleeting, and it is recommended that investors actively change their positions in the rebound. The A-share storm in June 2015, the semiconductor shutdown in July 2020, the collapse of core asset stock prices in March 2021, and the sharp decline in the growth sector in early 2022 all indicate that the stock price collapse caused by the deterioration of the micro-trading structure needs a very long repair. In a macro mix of declining economic expectations and high volatility in discount rate expectations, the growth/value positional warfare approach no longer applies. Low valuation, performance, performance determination is the optimal solution at present, the value market is far from over, but the internal rotation of value. Investment opportunities in stocks with low-risk characteristics: stocks with low valuation, performance, and definite performance. It should be pointed out that the low-value sector is not equal to the low-risk characteristics of the sector, and it is very easy to fall into the valuation trap by selecting stocks at low valuation. Economic and policy uncertainty, declining earnings expectations, declining risk appetite, before the credit path is clear, investing in stocks is like "driving in a foggy day", performance certainty is equally important. Industry recommendation: 1) the direction of holding physical assets and having stable cash flow, high dividends are only one of them: coal, chemical resources, second-tier central state-owned enterprise real estate, banks (Ping coal shares/ Wanhua Chemical / Bank of Ningbo); 2) public investment directions dominated by government expenditure: construction, power grid, wind and photovoltaics (China Power Construction / Mingyang Intelligence); 3) dilemma reversal: pigs, liquor and consumer services (Makihara shares / Wuliangye / Jin Jiang Hotel), focus on the bottom elasticity of Q2 consumer building materials and steel (Oriental Yuhong / Fangda Special Steel).
Huatai Securities: The RRR cut is a "supply" but not an "antidote", and the Sino-US spread and social financing structure are timing signals
The current round of RRR cuts is weaker than expected, focusing on two policy considerations: 1) the current macro liquidity is not lacking→ the cost of funds and financing environment may not constitute a constraint on A-shares, 2) taking into account the internal and external balance of policy order→ further easing space under the dislocation of the Sino-US profit cycle should not be overestimated. The key variable from rebound to reversal is the visibility of the inflection point of all-A non-financial performance, described in the "language" of three major spreads, that is, the Sino-US spread is the main contradiction, not the term spread and the credit spread; the social finance "language" describes, that is, the inflection point of the social finance structure is the main contradiction, and the March M1-M2 inflection point may have begun to appear, waiting for the medium and long-term loans to pick up.
In terms of configuration, the value continues to dominate, and the industry comparison idea is that the boom is excellent and not fully traded + those who are less affected by the epidemic or benefit from the epidemic: banks /CXO / construction / agriculture / food and beverage.
GF Securities: Growth continues to cut to value
A-shares still need to "think carefully", growth continues to cut to value, and allocate inflation benefit chain + stable growth. Before the real estate supply and demand obstruction and epidemic prevention policy have not changed significantly, the bottom of the A-share earnings cannot form a consensus expectation, so the value stocks may have been shaken, while the growth stocks will still be trapped by the upward trend of the real interest rate of the US Treasury and the changes in the supply and demand pattern.
Therefore, A shares still need to "think carefully", the value style will continue to dominate, the industry allocation: 1. 2. Resources/materials (coal/copper/potash) benefiting from "supply-demand gap"; 3. "Old-fashioned" stable growth forces to carry the role of economic "stabilizer" (real estate / consumer building materials / home appliances); Consumption "steady growth" and post-pandemic recovery expectations (leisure services/hotels).
Essence Securities: The policy can be expected to increase, and it is recommended to allocate stable growth > global inflation, high prosperity > post-epidemic repair
As far as the central bank's "RRR cut and no interest rate cut" behavior on the 15th, this RRR cut is in line with market expectations at the time point, but the RRR cut is very restrained; as for the interest rate cut, after the National Standing Committee emphasizes the "timely RRR cut", the market's expectations for "simultaneous interest rate cuts" will begin to decrease. We believe that the magnitude of this "RRR cut" has a limited effect on the repair of economic expectations and the alleviation of the capital tension in A-shares. But more importantly, this round of "RRR reduction" is still a clear and positive signal of the steady growth policy, and the follow-up "new plan" is more worth looking forward to.
From the current trading logic observation: we still believe: first, stable growth can not afford, high prosperity is difficult to be happy; second, stable growth cash, high prosperity turnaround. At present, it is in the process of "stable growth cashing in, high prosperity turning point" (in the process of stable growth and cashing, there will be a wave of excess real estate or consumer stocks, and then it will gradually transition to the direction of high prosperity. The configuration we recommend is stable growth (real estate chain, infrastructure, banking, food and beverage) > global inflation (coal, agriculture and animal husbandry, petrochemicals), high prosperity (digital intelligence, photovoltaics, military industry, semiconductors, wind power, new energy vehicles) > post-epidemic repair (hotels, aviation, catering, tourism, etc.).
Huaan Securities: The effect of steady growth in the first quarter is about to be "revealed", and the allocation is still given priority to balance
In the second week of April, the domestic epidemic and the overseas Fed accelerated to tighten risks to suppress the market. The central bank on April 15 to reduce the RRR by 25BP, monetary policy is more restrained, the probability of further stimulation in the short term is small, the "steady growth" policy is expected to remain infrastructure, real estate and promotion fees, the effect still needs macro data to be verified, pay close attention to the macro data released on April 18.
It is recommended to continue to balance the configuration to cope with fluctuations. In terms of allocation, the stability of the growth chain is the strongest, and it is recommended to continue to participate; under the policy of promoting consumption, the certainty of consumption recovery has been improved; the liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and it can still participate in the third stage of growth in the medium and long term.
Guohai Securities: At present, A-shares are still in the bottom period, and continue to be optimistic about infrastructure, real estate and other fields related to stable growth
At present, A-shares are still in the bottoming period, on the one hand, a series of positive changes have occurred in domestic policies, including the first RRR cut in the year, the further relaxation of local real estate policies, and the gradual relaxation of domestic supply chain shocks, etc. On the other hand, the Fed's interest rate hike of 50BP and balance sheet reduction are also expected to land in early May. However, the final confirmation of the market bottom signal needs to see the macroeconomic bottoming out and stabilization, and the negative disturbances overseas are significantly alleviated.
In terms of industry allocation, we continue to be optimistic about infrastructure, real estate and other fields related to stable growth, and participate in the post-cycle in stages and some consumer sectors that benefit from the marginal relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures. The stable growth sector is the direction of the least resistance at present, focusing on real estate, infrastructure and banks that benefit from the expectation of stabilization of the real estate chain. In the post-cyclical sector, the focus is on coal, petroleum and petrochemical, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc., which are expected to rise in price. The consumer sector focuses on industries such as food and beverage and tourism retail, which are fully adjusted and benefit from the marginal relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures.
Guangdong Kai Securities: The central bank moderately reduced the RRR, and the market shock repaired
Although the central bank's comprehensive RRR cut is less than expected, it still has a certain role in promoting the reduction of social comprehensive financing costs and enhancing market risk appetite. In addition, the upcoming April Politburo meeting is the highest-level meeting to deploy follow-up economic work priorities, the market attention is relatively high, this Politburo meeting is likely to continue the main tone of last year's Central Economic Work Conference and Politburo meeting, "stable" word is the head, supporting economic operation in a reasonable range.
Looking forward to the future market, we believe that under the influence of policy support and the approaching heavy meeting, A shares have a high probability of continuing the shock repair trend, and the market is dominated by structural markets, and it is recommended to focus on three main lines. First, pay attention to the main line of steady growth of policy forces. Internal and external disturbances make the economic downward pressure increase, stable growth as the main line of policy, in the long run will still be the main line of the market, it is recommended to pay attention to the new and old infrastructure that directly benefit from counter-cyclical adjustment and the real estate sector in the outstanding performance, low valuation of the target. Second, pay attention to the main line of large consumption. In terms of policies, the National Standing Committee will deploy policies and measures to promote consumption, and comprehensively implement policies to release consumption potential; in terms of funds, the recent recovery of the issuance of consumer-themed public funds is expected to bring incremental funds to the market; at the company level, after the pressure on the cost side of leading companies is gradually alleviated, it is expected to enjoy the dividends of profit elastic repair in the medium and long term. Third, pay attention to the large financial sector that is favorable to the RRR reduction policy. For the banking sector, the reduction will help ease the cost of bank liabilities, form a support for performance, and pay attention to low-value core stocks with high asset quality. For the brokerage sector, the loose liquidity environment will help boost the market's risk appetite, and the low-level brokerage sector is expected to usher in a valuation repair market.
Editor-in-charge: Tactical Constant