The author | Zhao Ling, and the editor | Gu Jinfeng
Source: Jufeng Investment Advisory, Good Stock Application
Automobiles are facing the industrial upgrading of automation and intelligence
Driven by intelligence, the automotive industry is expected to achieve industrial transformation and upgrading, and accelerate into a new era of interconnection of all things + intelligent connection of all things. At present, consumer electronics has entered the intelligent era one step ahead, and the automotive industry is currently lagging behind the consumer electronics (functional machine to intelligent machine) industry is still in the information age, the future is facing a new industrial upgrade from the information age to the intelligent era, the overall process can be compared to the functional machine to the intelligent machine.
Figure 1: Industrial upgrading from traditional cars to smart cars
Source: China Automotive Semiconductor Industry Conference, Ideal Auto, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
Automobile intelligence brings about the upgrading of the overall industrial value chain of the automobile industry, we are optimistic that in the "smile curve" of the automobile industry value chain, the automobile chip will be revalued under the intelligent empowerment and will become a new profit growth point for the automobile. As the automobile enters the era of intelligence, new profit growth points and enterprises will appear in the high value-added areas at both ends of the industrial chain, and the high added value will no longer come from the traditional body, chassis and other fields, but will be concentrated in the core chips, software, services and other fields.
Pay attention to Jufeng Investment Advisory (jfinfo)/good stock application, super leading target analysis and research report waiting for you to get!
Figure 2: The smile curve of the automotive industry chain
Source: Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
Intelligent + electrified, in the future, intelligent electric vehicles will become mainstream products, bringing consumers the ultimate travel experience. The key application developments required, including language recognition, gesture recognition, environment perception systems, AI intelligent algorithms, etc., will rely on core chips (sensors, power semiconductors, AI chips, etc.).
A new round of growth in the semiconductor industry of intelligent automation
Automotive intelligence + electrification has led to the continuous improvement of automotive semiconductor content. The semiconductor content of electric vehicles is about twice that of fuel vehicles, and the semiconductor content of smart cars is N times that of traditional cars, which is optimistic that new energy vehicles will open a new round of growth trends in the semiconductor industry.
Figure 3: Electrification of vehicles: Triple electric systems
Source: Automotive Chip Application Traction Innovation and Development Forum, GAC Research Institute, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
Figure 4: Car intelligence: smart cockpit + smart driving
Source: Automotive Chip Application Traction Innovation and Development Forum, GAC Research Institute, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
Automotive is the fourth largest application area in the semiconductor industry, accounting for 12.18% in 2019, benefiting from the rapid growth of the intelligent + electrification wave in the future. Combined with the above analysis, we predict that the future car chips benefiting from automobile electrification (three-electric system) + intelligence (intelligent cockpit + intelligent driving) are expected to achieve rapid growth.
Figure 5: Downstream applications of semiconductors
Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
Figure 6: Automotive intelligence will become a new driving force in the semiconductor industry
Source: China Automotive Semiconductor Industry Conference, HiSilicon, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
Historically, the growth of the semiconductor industry has been driven by a small number of killer applications, and we are optimistic about the rapid growth of demand for automotive semiconductors in the era of intelligence + electrification, which is expected to become a new driving force leading the development of semiconductors. From the development of the semiconductor industry in the past few decades, it can be seen that before 2000, semiconductors for the special field mainly benefited from aerospace, military and other downstream fields to drive demand, 2000-2010 semiconductors mainly benefited from computers and laptops to drive the volume, 2010-2020 mobile phones, tablets, etc. to drive the demand for semiconductors, 2020-2030 cars may become a new driving force leading the development of semiconductors.
The demand for semiconductors in the era of automotive automation and intelligence has increased
Compared with traditional cars, it is predicted that the number of various types of chips used in new energy vehicles will be significantly improved. The following are new energy sources
Semiconductor incremental measurement of automobiles compared to traditional automobiles:
1) Power management chip: It is expected that the power management chip required for new energy vehicles is compared with the chip required by traditional cars
To grow nearly 20% of the chips to 50;
2) Gate driver: It is expected that the Gate driver used in new energy vehicles is a completely new demand compared to traditional cars, each
The car needs 30 chips;
3) CIS, ISP: It is expected that the ciS and ISP used in new energy vehicles will increase by 50% to 20 per vehicle;
4) Display: It is estimated that each new energy vehicle needs 8 pieces; 5) MCU: New energy vehicles need to increase the demand for MCU by 30% Each vehicle needs at least 35 pieces;
6) IGBT, SiC: It is also a new demand for semiconductors for new energy vehicles
Global automotive sales changes for the incremental demand for semiconductor chips:
Suppose that the semiconductor chips required by traditional cars are 500-600 chips/vehicle, and the semiconductor chips required for new energy vehicles are 1000-2000 chips/vehicle:
Based on the sales of 72.76 million traditional cars in 2020 and 3.24 million units of new energy vehicles, the overall global demand for automotive chips is 43.9 billion per year.
It is estimated that in 2026, the sales volume of traditional cars will be 67.8 million units, and the number of new energy vehicles will be 44.2 million units, and the overall global demand for automotive chips will increase to 90.3 billion per year.
It is estimated that in 2035, the sales volume of traditional cars will be 24 million units, and the number of new energy vehicles will be 96 million units, and the overall global demand for automotive chips will increase to 128.5 billion per year.
Figure 7: Incremental demand for semiconductor chips in global automotive sales
Source: 2021 China Automotive Semiconductor Industry Conference, ST, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
According to the data released by HiSilicon at the 2021 China Automotive Semiconductor Industry Conference, the global automotive semiconductor market will be about 50.5 billion US dollars in 2021, and the total automotive semiconductor market is expected to be close to 100 billion US dollars in 2027, and the growth rate will remain above 30% in 2022-2027. China's automotive semiconductor market is rising steadily, with about 100 billion yuan in 2020.
Chart 8: Global Automotive Semiconductor Market Size Forecast (US$100 Million)
Source: 2021 China Automotive Semiconductor Industry Conference, HiSilicon, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
Automotive chip classification and investment opportunities
Chart: Classification of automotive chips
Source: Automotive Chip Application Traction Innovation and Development Forum, GAC Research Institute, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
In 2020, the market demand for automotive semiconductor products: main control chips accounted for 23%, power semiconductors accounted for 22%, sensors accounted for 13%, memory chips accounted for 9%, and others accounted for 33%.
Chart 9: Market Demand for Automotive Semiconductor Products in 2020 (%)
Source: Automotive Chip Application Traction Innovation and Development Forum, GAC Research Institute, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
Main control chip: The computing power continues to increase with the improvement of intelligence from L1
Figure 10: Automotive MCUs account for the MCU segment
Source: China Automotive Semiconductor Industry Conference, HiSilicon, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
MCU accounts for about 30% of the number of semiconductor devices used in a car, and each vehicle needs at least 70 MCU chips, and as cars continue to evolve to intelligence, the demand for MCUs will grow faster and faster.
With the development of smart cars, especially the rise of smart cockpits and automatic driving concepts, the main control chip came into being.
Figure 11: Comparison of master chip MCUs and SOCs
Data source: Gaz Automotive Research Institute, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, Jufeng Investment Advisory
SoC chips are mainly divided into intelligent cockpit and automatic driving chips: cockpit chips take into account the characteristics of high safety, high computing power, low power consumption and other characteristics of future development trends. Qualcomm layout of a variety of chip products, technology and market advantages gradually obvious, traditional automotive SoC chip manufacturers' products are mostly used in low-end models, market share is squeezed, in addition to local companies to open the force;
In terms of SoC manufacturers, Jingchen Shares, Rockchip Micro, and Fuhan Micro accelerate the layout of automotive chips. SAIC Group's investment in Jingchen is conducive to the development of Jingchen in the automotive field, Jingchen chip products are mainly used for in-vehicle infotainment systems, and has made positive progress in cooperation with overseas high-end high-value customers, and received orders from some customers, and sales have increased steadily. Rockchip micro-PX series products have been applied to some automotive electronic products, in 2021 the company launched the first chip RK3358M that passed the AEC-Q100 vehicle reliability standard test, facing the field of smart automotive electronics, and will continue to launch intelligent cockpit, entertainment central control, visual processing and other processor chips for the automotive front-loading market. Fuhan Micro focuses on the layout of vehicle vision chips, and has passed AECQ100 Grade2 certification, entered the automotive front-loading market, according to the company's "GEM to issue convertible corporate bonds to unspecified objects prospectus" announcement, automotive image signal processing and transmission link chipset project can cover a variety of areas including ADAS, driving recorder, reversing rearview and other automotive electronic products.
The cockpit domain controller was further integrated, and domestic manufacturers quickly followed up. On the basis of integrating basic functions such as instrument central control, rear-seat entertainment, HUD, and voice, the intelligent cockpit platform of many suppliers has further integrated the functions of surround view, DMS, OMS and some ADAS functions, etc. The domestic intelligent cockpit companies represented by Desay SV quickly follow up to achieve production matching.
Analog chip: Intelligent driving needs to obtain a large amount of data through sensors, L2-level cars are expected to carry 6 sensors, L5-level cars are expected to carry 32 sensors, the proportion of automotive semiconductors is significantly increased, intelligent driving obtains a large amount of data through sensors, L2-level cars are expected to carry 6 sensors, and L5-level cars are expected to carry 32 sensors (ultrasonic radar 10 + long-distance radar sensors 2 + short-range radar sensors 6 + surround view camera 5 +). 4 long-range cameras + 2 stereo cameras + 1 Ubolo + 1 lidar + 1 position calculation), which is significantly faster than L2. It can be seen that the analog chip is an essential part of the automatic driving system.
In terms of sensor manufacturers, new products from companies such as Weier Co., Ltd. have been introduced into the automotive market. Vail's CMOS image sensors, LCOS, and ASICs are all used in the automotive sector, where the company's CMOS image sensors provide cost-effective, high-quality image solutions for rearview cameras (RVC), surround view display systems (SVS) and electronic rearview mirrors.
In terms of lidar, Hesai, Sagitar, Valeo, etc. released new products. Hesai Technology launched the automotive grade semi-solid-state lidar AT128 equipped with a new generation of self-developed chips, and released the new close-range ultra-wide-angle lidar QT128. Hesai AT128 dot frequency of more than 1.53 million points per second, with 200 meters @ 10% of the super telemetry capability, the farthest ground line can reach 70 meters, can provide the necessary perception for the production car to achieve stable and reliable L3 + ADAS function. With an ultra-wide vertical field of view of 105°, the QT128 is a blindfolded radar for autonomous driving applications such as L4-level robotaxi and robotruck.
Power semiconductors: The value of traditional fuel vehicle power semiconductors reached 87.6 US dollars, and the value of bicycles in new energy vehicles reached 458.7 US dollars, achieving more than four times the growth of the absolute value of automotive semiconductors in growth, and the value of power semiconductors increased the most from the classification. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the value of power semiconductors in new energy vehicles has increased significantly. According to the traditional fuel vehicle semiconductor value of 417 US dollars, the value of power semiconductor bicycles reached 87.6 US dollars, according to the FHEV, PHEV, BEV bicycle value of 834 US dollars, the value of power semiconductor bicycles reached 458.7 US dollars, the value increased by more than four times.
In terms of power semiconductors, Silan Micro, Times Electric, Star Semiconductor, and Hongwei Technology actively lay out. The main motor drive module of the V generation IGBT and FRD chip independently developed by Silan Micro has been tested by many customers in China in the first half of 2021, and some customers have begun to supply in batches.
Times Electric's 2020 passenger car IGBT has received orders from GAC and Dongfeng.
In the first half of 2021, Star Semiconductor's automotive grade IGBT modules applied to the main motor controller continued to be released, with a total of more than 200,000 new energy vehicles, and a new generation of vehicle specification 650V/750V IGBT chips based on the seventh-generation micro-trench Trench FieldStop technology was successfully developed and expected to be supplied in batches in 2022.
Hongwei Technology's vehicle-grade IGBT module GV series products have been realized to zhen drive technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. small batch supply, Huichuan technology, hive electric drive technology Hebei Co., Ltd. (Great Wall Motor subsidiary) and Magumit is in the process of product certification of GV series products.
Investment Consultant: Ling Zhao, Practising Certificate No.: A0680615040001
Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific operational advice, according to which the operation profit and loss is at your own risk
Reference Research Report:
Seven questions and seven answers to automotive chips: traditional to intelligent change, value to growth revaluation - Tianfeng Securities 20220128
The penetration rate of smart cars has increased rapidly, and in-vehicle chips are the best track - China Galaxy Securities 20220321
Electronics industry weekly report: tight supply and demand of semiconductor materials, domestic substitution to accelerate the breakthrough - Guosheng Securities 20220321