(Report Producer/Author: CITIC Construction Investment)
1. Core view:
Automotive air conditioning filter is a relatively ignored in the early market to benefit from the track, with the continuous improvement of new energy vehicle penetration, product upgrades, supply chain changes will bring about changes in volume, price, pattern, is a scarce consumables industry in the era of new energy vehicles.
Both demand and space, products continue to upgrade
1) Increased user demand: The epidemic has brought users to pay attention to on-board air quality, and automakers have gradually upgraded the configuration of air conditioning filters.
2) Space upgrade has the conditions: with the replacement of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles, the engine is cancelled, the front cabin layout space is increased, and the conditions for product upgrade are available. From single-effect filter element - double filter element - composite filter element - HEPA filter element, the product continues to upgrade. Represented by Tesla, the HEPA high-efficiency filter configured on the Model X has gradually sunk to the Model Y.
Consumer attention has increased, the frequency of consumable replacement has continued to increase, and the logic of ownership has been increased
Air conditioning filter element for consumables products, service life and environment, material related, in the past fuel car owners of after-sales maintenance cognition is limited to oil filter and other mandatory replacement consumables, the car air quality is low attention, air conditioning filter replacement frequency is low. With the increase in attention brought about by the epidemic and the upgrading of new energy vehicles, the number of annual replacements by consumers has continued to increase, gradually increasing from 2-3 years to 1-2 times a year.
The rapid improvement of industry space, new energy brings new growth poles, and the market expands with the increase of ownership
In 22-25 years, it is expected that the market space of automotive air conditioning filter will total 217/239/281/333 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 15% in 4 years. Among them, in the field of new energy vehicles, the air conditioning filter market space is expected to reach 11.3/24/46.2/79 billion yuan in 22-25 years, and the CAGR will reach 91% in 4 years, and new energy vehicles will bring a strong incremental market to the air conditioning filter.
Foreign monopoly, with the new energy vehicle enterprises to control the supply chain, after-sales service to enhance, the aftermarket gradually concentrated in the front of the brand, new opportunities for domestic brands
1) At present, most of the front-loading filter elements are foreign monopolies, and domestic brands mainly do after-loading and OEM markets, lack of brand recognition and scattered patterns. With the increased control of the supply chain by new energy vehicle companies, it is expected to gradually support the supply chain to accelerate domestic substitution.
2) With the extension of new energy vehicle enterprise services to the back end, from distribution to direct sales, strengthen after-sales service control, the aftermarket gradually concentrates on front-loading brands, refers to the tire industry, increases brand premium, and new opportunities for domestic production.
2. Summary of the report:
The attributes of automobile consumption have increased, and under the promotion of the epidemic, the on-board air has set sail
The automotive industry has entered the era of stock, new energy vehicle companies have entered the game, leading the trend of innovation, and the internal volume has intensified. Automobile manufacturing attributes have declined, consumption and technology (electric & intellectual) attributes have improved, there are bottlenecks in the short-term dimensions of scientific and technological attributes that cannot achieve obvious differentiation, and consumption attributes currently play a significant role in increasing the share of downstream OEMs.
Automotive air filters are an important component that affects the cockpit experience, and since the epidemic, consumer attention has greatly increased, and it is at the turning point of upgrading. Product upgrade trend from paper filter element to HEPA filter element; The functional compound trend of "multi-effect integration" and "filtration system upgrade", the two synergistically become the "wings" of the vehicle air consumption upgrade, and gradually touch the "itch point" of car owners.
A variety of filtration methods can achieve different filtration effects
The filter structure includes a coarse filter, a filter layer, activated carbon, a base, etc., and the core component is a filter layer, which can be further upgraded to filter PM2.5, bacteria, etc.
There are five ways to filter, and different structures have different ways of filtering. The filtration methods are barrier, sedimentation, electrostatic adsorption, surface adsorption, van der Waals adsorption. Coarse filter: barrier, filter element filter layer: barrier + sedimentation + electrostatic adsorption, activated carbon layer: surface adsorption, HEPA: van der Waals adsorption + sedimentation.
Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles pay more attention to air quality, and tend to use composite multi-effect filters with multiple functions such as barrier, electrostatic adsorption, and surface adsorption.
Different from air filter, air conditioning filter still exists in the new energy era
The margin of new energy vehicle consumables has narrowed, and the value of air conditioning filters has increased. Traditional fuel vehicles contain four kinds of filtration consumables, while new energy vehicles only have one filtration consumable for air conditioning. New energy vehicles have sufficient front cabin space, the volume of air conditioning filters can be installed is larger and more numerous, the number of air conditioning filter bicycles and the value of bicycles are increased, and Tesla Model Y is equipped with up to 4 composite filters and 2 HEPA filters.
Air conditioning filter and air filter, the two are fundamentally different. Both filter air, the difference is that the air conditioner filters the gas entering the cabin, while the air filter filters the air entering the engine. Air conditioning filter is a common component of all cars, and the air filter is bound to the internal combustion engine, which is shrinking with the development of electrification.
Vehicle air has become a selling point, air conditioning filter compound intelligence, and the value has continued to increase
The attributes of automobile consumption have increased, on-board air has gradually become a selling point, the awareness of personal protection in the superimposed epidemic environment has been improved, and the air conditioning filter has been iteratively upgraded, showing a compound and intelligent trend. With the functional compounding of automotive air conditioning filters, material upgrades, and the increase in the air conditioning filter area suitable for cars under the trend of electrification, the value of filter singles has increased: taking Tesla as an example, its on-board filter area is more than 10 times that of traditional fuel vehicles. The price of ordinary filter elements is 25-30 yuan, activated carbon filter elements are 30-80 yuan, and HEPA filter elements can reach up to 800 yuan.
Functional composite material upgrades, product iteration innovation
Functional compounding: Under the background of consumption upgrading and the epidemic situation, the filter element with a single function cannot meet all the needs of use. In order to meet consumer requirements, new products with odor removal and PM2.5 functions have emerged, such as Freudenberg's Micron Air series three-in-one filter. The functional difference between the air conditioning filter element and the coarse filter has been improved, and some models have begun to arrange filters on the outside of the air intake to filter large-size debris.
Material upgrade: Initially the single-effect filter element is made of non-woven fabric, and later upgraded to an electret non-woven fabric that can electrostatically adsorb PM2.5, and antibacterial ingredients can be added to achieve sterilization function. At the same time of functional compounding, the filter element materials are diversified, and coconut shell activated carbon, HEPA polymer materials and other type materials have emerged.
HEPA filter element, new direction
HEPA is short for High Efficiency Barrier Particles, often referred to as High Efficiency Particle Filters. As technology continues to advance, the standard definition of HEPA continues to improve. In the new European standard EN1822, which was introduced in 2009, the definition of HEPA was upgraded from above H10 in the original standard to above H13, that is, the interception effect of 0.3 μm particulate matter must reach more than 99.95%.
Filters that meet the HEPA rating have the following two characteristics: a sufficiently large filtration area to ensure a high dust holding capacity, and extremely high sealing performance to ensure higher filtration efficiency.
Tesla strongly promoted the HEPA filtration system, and "biochemical defense mode" became standard
In 2021, Tesla announced the installation of HEPA filtration system for model Y models and added a "biochemical defense mode" to the air conditioning system, which can achieve efficient purification of on-board air through passive and active methods.
Passive: the effective filtration area is ten times that of the filter core of ordinary cars; There are three layers of composite activated carbon filtration layer, which has the characteristics of medical grade high-efficiency particulate filtration, effectively blocking pollen, bacteria, viruses and pollutants from entering the interior of the car.
Active: The vehicle will form a high-pressure area inside the carriage during driving, and pollutants will not enter the car through the window gap or ventilation openings.
In experimental tests, Tesla's HEPA filtration system reduced the pollution level in the car from the extremely dangerous 1000 μg/m3 to a level that the instrument could not detect (below the noise background) in less than two minutes, achieving an efficient interior purification effect.
The new forces of car-making quickly followed, and the attributes of on-board air consumption became stronger
Tesla's "biochemical defense model" promotes the transformation of the attributes of the vehicle air filter from necessities to consumer goods, the cognition of the vehicle air has broken the circle to become a good publicity "selling point", the new car-making forces have launched their own air purification systems, and the consumption upgrade of the vehicle air is on the road.
In recent years, NIO ES8 is equipped with a set of intelligent air purification system jointly built by HEPA medical grade filter, activated carbon filter, negative ion generator, etc. Xiaopeng G3 is equipped with HEPA filter and point brush version HAF filter layer, which can remove particles with a diameter of more than 0.3 microns and can reach 99.97% and generate negative ions; The upcoming Zhiji L7 is equipped with a full-process customized air management system. Vehicle air has become a publicity tool for various car companies.
The price of new energy air conditioner filtration has risen together, and the OEM front-loading market has grown rapidly
Automobile sales: Assuming that the epidemic is alleviated, the lack of core is alleviated, and the national policy is in line with expectations, it is expected that the total vehicle sales in 25 years will reach 30.52 million units, passenger car sales will be 25.82 million units, commercial vehicle sales will be 4.7 million units, and the new energy penetration rate of passenger cars will reach 40%.
Front-loading market unit price: Assuming that the consumption upgrade is in line with expectations and the air conditioning filter upgrade brings about an increase in the unit price, and assuming that the commercial vehicle air conditioning filter will increase by 2% per year. After calculating the unit price of air conditioning filter OEM+OES market, it is expected that in 25 years, fuel vehicles will be 34 yuan, new energy passenger cars will be 137 yuan, and commercial vehicles will be 76 yuan.
OEM front-loading market space: During the 22-25 period, the OEM front-loading market space is expected to total 1.17/14/1.78/23 million yuan, and the FOUR-year CAGR will reach 25.3%. It is estimated that in 25 years, the corresponding market for fuel-fired vehicles will be 530 million yuan, new energy passenger vehicles will be 1.41 billion yuan, and commercial vehicles will be 360 million yuan.
Car ownership has grown steadily, and the OES+IAM aftermarket space is vast
Car ownership: 21 years of domestic car ownership 302 million, new energy vehicles 0.08 billion, assuming that the car scrap rate remains unchanged, by 25 years is expected to reach 396 million vehicles, new energy ownership of 0.36 billion. The scale of the aftermarket increased by about 30.7% over 21 years, and the new energy market increased by 350%.
Aftermarket unit price: Assuming that the channel profit and retail supply price are high, the unit price of the fuel vehicle air conditioning filter after installation is 20% higher than that of the front installation, and it is assumed that the new energy vehicle company builds its own after-sales system and causes IAM to bear pressure, so that the new energy air conditioning filter aftermarket price is equal to the front installation. It is expected that by 25 years, the unit price of fuel vehicle air conditioning filter will be 40.8 yuan, and the new energy will remain unchanged.
Replacement cycle: Assuming that the epidemic and the publicity of car companies make consumers more willing to change, according to the data of head air conditioning filter companies, it is assumed that the final value of the annual replacement frequency of passenger cars is 1.3 times, taking into account the more mileage of commercial vehicles, assuming that the annual replacement frequency of commercial vehicles is finally 2.
OES+IAM aftermarket space: During the 22-25 period, it is expected that the aftermarket space will total 205/225/263/31 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 14.8% in 4 years. It is estimated that in 25 years, the corresponding market for fuel vehicles will be 16.13 billion yuan, new energy passenger vehicles will be 6.49 billion yuan, and commercial vehicles will be 8.39 billion yuan.
It is expected that the vehicle air conditioning filter market will exceed 30 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 17.07% in 4 years.
In terms of air conditioning filter as a whole, the comprehensive pre-installation market and after-installation market situation, during the 22-25 period, it is expected that the overall market space of automotive air-conditioning filter will total 217/239/281/333 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 15% in 4 years.
In terms of new energy vehicle air conditioning filter, during the 22-25 period, it is expected that the market space of new energy vehicle air conditioning filter can reach 11.3/24/46.2/79 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 91% in 4 years, and new energy vehicles will bring a strong incremental market to air conditioning filters.
The main enterprises in the industrial chain: Jinhai Hi-Tech, Anhui Phoenix. The air conditioning filtration market has a wide range of room for growth, and related targets are expected to continue to benefit.
3. Excerpts from the report:
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].
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