Let me first ask a question, will house prices go up?
This problem, we will find that there are many reasons for saying that it is rising, and some people may be able to give a lot of reasonable explanations when it comes to falling.
Let me give you a few examples of the fall in house prices.
First, houses are for people to live in, and there are more and more aging people, and there are fewer and fewer new births. There is no one left. What do you want to do?
This logic is almost the power of the coffin argument in the hearts of many people, because the population is decreasing, then the supply of real estate is overdemand, then no one wants the house, then the house price will not rise.
The second argument is that housing prices have risen too violently in the past, and the deformed and abnormal housing prices will eventually return to their original shape, and no one can stop coming.
The third statement is that the first ring of Beijing is up to 10,000, the center of Shanghai is up to 8,000, and the rest are IQ taxes. People have run away from the big cities, and who will build houses to live in?
These statements seem to be very representative, but, sorry, people with these concepts are people with low awareness of real estate.
In the past, when housing prices rose sharply, they couldn't make money, so they always looked at the property market with emotions.
It is precisely because they can't understand that they are reaped repeatedly with various rhythms.
I'll tell you the truth.
First, the decline in the number of new births will not be immediately reflected in the property market, because the people who are in demand now are those born in the past, which is precisely the peak period of birth.
Second, population decline has little impact on core cities, and under the strategy of large urban agglomerations, the population gathers in core cities, which is the general trend.
Many people don't understand, thinking that people are running out of big cities, but in fact, the truth is that almost all high-quality talents are concentrated in core cities, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will leap again in the future, standing on top of the world and becoming the best city in the world.
Third, Beijing and Shanghai have relaxed the property market purchase restriction policy at the same time, and we all know what the weight of these two cities is. The signal is too clear, and it is imperative to pull up the property market.
If the policy is good and the weight is increased, the property market may really rise.