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Let's take a look at what happened between China and the Philippines.
On April 25, the Philippines, the United States, and France held a trilateral joint military exercise in the South China Sea, pulling the U.S. and French navies to support itself, and the exercise area is very close to the disputed waters between China and the Philippines.
On May 1, China drove away a Philippine official ship that had intruded into the waters off Scarborough Shoal in accordance with the law, and the coast guard water cannon took tough measures against the Philippine ship, causing some failure of the Philippine ship's radar and electronic components, causing heavy losses.
During this period, the Philippines has successively provoked on a number of islands, such as Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal, continuously dispatched official ships into China's territorial waters, and continuously invited the US military to participate in military exercises in the South China Sea. In this regard, the Chinese army has exercised great restraint, and the Philippines has made itself the best adversary?
The 5201 ship of our coast guard used water cannons to attack the Philippine ships
One: The Philippines has seriously trampled on the red line
Looking at the countries around China, no country has the courage to provoke China on its own, such as Japan, India, and the weak Philippines, all of which have the support and connivance of the superpower behind them.
On 8 May 1999, Beijing time, the US-led NATO brazenly bombed the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia with precision-guided bombs.
This is the case with small countries, and the conspiracy of a villain can only show its vulnerability, and the Chinese navy at that time was far less powerful than it is now, and could not rely on military force to completely resolve the disputes over islands and reefs in the South China Sea.
The Philippine landing ship "Sierra Madre" sank to Ren'ai Shoal in the South China Sea
In 2016, the Philippines once again relied on the so-called "international tribunal" to adjudicate Scarborough Shoal, a disputed island between China and the Philippines. After the confrontation at Scarborough Shoal, a certain group of Chinese Air Force aviation bombers H-6K bombers entered the airspace of Scarborough Shoal and released photos of H-6K and Scarborough Shoal in the same frame, and the Chinese army completed control of Scarborough Shoal.
After the pro-US Max Jr. came to power, the Philippines completely fell to the side of the United States, agreeing to the four military bases stationed by the US military in the Philippines, and the US military's "Typhon" medium-range missile battery has entered the Philippines with a range of 1,800 km, which is already capable of striking targets in China's Hubei Province, posing a severe challenge to China's national security, and this is a naked military provocation.
The Philippines is backed by the United States and Japan, thinking that it can do whatever it wants after signing the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense" treaty, and disputes and confrontations over Scarborough Shoal and Ren'ai Jiao have occurred frequently.
Two: Why did the PLA delay in making a move?
All along, the Chinese army is extremely cautious about using force to solve problems, mainly depends on two major factors, one is the strategic gains, if the strategic benefits are far less than the cost of the war, then the conflict will not become the choice of the Chinese army, the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea played the national and military prestige, played China's 70 years of peaceful environment, the self-defense counterattack war against India made India dare not cross the Himalayas and the Karakoram Mountains, our army only used a small number of elite troops to contain hundreds of thousands of Indian troops, deterring the Indian army from daring to act rashly, obviously the Philippines is an opponent completely unqualified。 In terms of size, equipment level, and will to fight, they are not at all opponents of the PLA.
In 2024, the total tonnage of naval vessels in the Southern Theater has exceeded 1 million tons, with 1 aircraft carrier, 1 amphibious assault ship, 5 dock landing ships, 18 destroyers and more than 30 frigates, fully mastering the military superiority in the South China Sea.
On the other hand, the Philippine Navy does not have a single decent combat ship above the frigate, nor is it equipped with missile destroyers, submarines, and other main battle equipment, and the gap between the Chinese and Philippine militaries is beyond imagination.
The second major consideration for the PLA not to use force lightly is the international public opinion environment, and it must not leave the international community with the excuse of bullying the small and seriously disrupt China's development environment; under the premise that China's comprehensive national strength has not surpassed that of the United States, certain opportunist countries in the South China Sea will turn to the United States in one fell swoop, which is not conducive to China's long-term management of the South China Sea. But the Philippines is bent on destabilizing the South China Sea, and if China believes it has to use force to resolve the South China Sea issue, then the Philippines must be the best adversary.
Three: The Philippines has established itself as the best adversary
The Philippines is pulling the United States to confront China in an attempt to change the balance of power between China and the Philippines. However, it has also reduced the psychological burden on the Chinese military to resolve the South China Sea issue by force, and the Philippines has made itself the best adversary.
If the dispute over islands and reefs in the South China Sea is completely resolved, the Chinese military can consider three tactics: one is to use anti-ship missiles to destroy the Philippine sunken ship, which is completely controllable and can minimize the scale of the conflict, and after the implementation of military control over Ren'ai Jiao, Philippine armed personnel and ships will no longer be allowed to enter the 12-nautical-mile territorial waters.
The second is to focus on striking Philippine naval vessels, aiming at heavy casualties for the Philippine military, thoroughly resolving the dispute over islands and reefs with the Philippines, and ending the wartime alliance between the United States and the Philippines, so as to take this opportunity to change the pattern of struggle in the South China Sea.
The last option is to attack the Philippine mainland, especially the U.S. military bases stationed in the Philippines, and I think that as the Sino-Philippine dispute worsens, the Chinese military can prioritize the first and second options rather than the more aggressive third option.
In resolving the disputes and confrontation between China and the Philippines over islands and reefs in the South China Sea, the Chinese military has maintained great restraint and patience and does not want to deal with the Philippines, but if the Philippines is obstinate and uses itself as a pawn of the United States to contain China, the Philippines will become an excellent opponent of the Chinese military. If you have any views and suggestions on the article, you are welcome to like, comment and forward it in the comment area.
Part of the information source of the article: Philippine ships illegally invaded Scarborough Shoal, and the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines made a 4-point response to Global Network