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Text: Mo Hanxue
Edited by Mo Hanxue
[Preface]
"Is it true that China and the United States cannot coexist peacefully?" This seems to be a problem of the century, and our country has always adhered to the principle of "friendship and cooperation," but the United States has been trying to find ways to sanction us and curb the development of the mainland.
In 2023, the U.S. imports from China fell by 20% in order to decouple Chinese products, and then they imported from Mexico, but in reality this situation is called "ineffective decoupling......
What's going on here? Is the decoupling between China and the United States now complete?
[China's rapid economic development has given the United States a sense of crisis]
In fact, the reason why the United States has been trying to suppress China is because the rapid development of China's economy in recent years has indeed caused a sense of crisis in the United States.
Not only that, but the speed and scale of China's economic growth have begun to have a significant impact on the global economic landscape.
According to the Global Finance and Development Report 2023, China's economy will contribute 32% to global economic growth in 2023.
This strong economic performance has not only boosted China's position in the global economy, but has also made other countries, especially the United States, feel a certain amount of pressure and threat.
Especially after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2019, it was the mainland that took the lead in controlling the situation, even if production had to be suspended due to the epidemic in the middle, it was very short-lived.
Looking at the countries where the epidemic broke out in the world, China was the earliest and fastest to control the epidemic, and the economy also recovered the fastest, which has always been a concern for the United States.
You must know that as early as 2018, a year before the outbreak of the epidemic, the United States launched a trade war, and they hoped to use this method to suppress our economic development in China.
At that time, the United States' move was indeed a small effect, and the bilateral trade volume declined, but unfortunately an epidemic directly turned the United States' efforts into nothing.
If it were only because of economic problems, perhaps the United States would not be so anxious, mainly because of China's active participation and increased influence in international affairs, which also made the United States feel uneasy.
China's peaceful rise and enthusiasm for foreign policy have made the US Government worry that the value foundation of the Western international order may be shaken, so all the efforts made by the United States are aimed at consolidating its position as the world hegemon.
[U.S. imports from China down 20%]
The current attitude of the United States towards China can actually be described in an Internet phrase: "I can't get used to us, but I can't kill us!" ”
Although the United States is desperately sanctioning the mainland, it is undeniable that in many places today, the United States is still dependent on our China for production, so the United States is eager to "decouple" our China.
According to a report by Tencent.com, U.S. imports to China will decrease by nearly 20% year-on-year in 2023, and China will no longer be the largest importer, a change that has broken a record that has been maintained for 17 years.
According to a report released by the U.S.-China Business Council (USCBC), U.S. merchandise exports to China have declined in 2023, down 4.3% year-on-year.
Although this data mainly reflects the export situation, it also indirectly indicates that trade tensions between the two sides may lead to a decrease in imports.
In addition, the U.S. Trade Representative has also raised the rhetoric of imposing new tariffs on China, as well as the escalation of the U.S. government's export control measures on semiconductors to China, which may be one of the factors leading to the reduction in imports.
In addition, in 2023, there will be continuous conflicts in major regions, and the game between China and the United States and other major powers will become increasingly fierce, so the United States will continue to increase export controls to China.
However, no matter how much the United States tosses, China and the United States still cannot achieve complete "decoupling", and still maintain a deep and continuous commercial relationship, and rely on each other's markets and products to a certain extent.
In fact, judging from the current situation, the United States still occupies a huge advantage, after all, there is still a certain gap between the renminbi and the dollar, so even if the mainland exports American products, the United States will not suffer losses.
It's just that the United States doesn't seem to want us to take advantage of it at all, so after drastically reducing mainland imports, it quickly wooed Mexico, but I didn't expect it to be "ineffective decoupling" in the end......
[In 2023, Mexico will overtake China and become the largest importer of goods in the United States]
In 2023, Mexico did overtake China to become the number one importer of goods to the United States.
According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the value of Mexico's imports increased by nearly 5% in 2023 to more than $475 billion, while the value of U.S. imports from China fell by about 20% over the same period.
This is also confirmed by the US media and official reports, with ABC reporting that Mexico became the largest source of US imports in 2023, according to data published by the US Department of Commerce.
The change is also seen by netizens as part of the Biden administration's strategy to "get rid of dependence on China," encouraging companies to find suppliers in allies or relocate manufacturing operations back to the United States.
No wonder Biden is so anxious, the mainland's economic development momentum in recent years is indeed very strong, and some data show that GDP has reached more than 70% of the United States.
Perhaps, in the eyes of the Americans, if they do not intervene again, then their American market will be occupied by our Chinese products, so they will reduce the mainland's exports and speed up the "decoupling" from us.
It's a pity that what the US government didn't expect was that they went to great lengths to "decouple" from the mainland and find Mexico to import, but in the end they still did useless work......
Mexico did become the largest source of imports to the United States, but that doesn't mean that all products exported to the United States are made in Mexico, in fact, there is evidence that many products exported to the United States through Mexico are actually made in China.
According to an analysis by the Financial Times: the volume of Chinese goods shipped from Mexico to the United States is increasing!
Inadvertently, our Chinese companies have used Mexico as a transit point to indirectly export products to the United States, but these are all unintentional moves, after all, the coverage of goods made in China is too wide now.
There are also reports that in Monterrey, in northern Mexico, Chinese companies have set up large factories to produce products such as reclining chairs and leather sofas, which are advertised as "100% Made in Mexico", but are actually destined for the American market.
Although Mexico is apparently the largest source of U.S. imports, many of the products that are exported to the U.S. through Mexico are actually made in China.
So it is very ridiculous that the United States has been tossing for so long, but it has always been "ineffective decoupling......
There are also our Chinese electric vehicles, which are now further occupying foreign markets, which the United States cannot stop, so even if they are in a hurry, it is useless!
And people in many countries in Europe and the United States are very fond of goods made in China, and even the "old man's music" eliminated in our country is also deeply loved in Europe and the United States.
[Today, the economic contest between China and the United States continues]
As the "number one enemy" among the imaginary enemies of the United States, China's development can be said to be very competitive, and it is developing by leaps and bounds in the military, scientific research, and economy.
In particular, cutting-edge scientific and technological fields such as chips and artificial intelligence are the focus of Sino-US competition, and the United States has imposed restrictions and sanctions on our Chinese high-tech products, which has further intensified the scientific and technological competition between the two sides.
Although trade and investment between China and the United States have grown significantly over the past few decades, the economic and trade relationship between the two countries has faced new challenges and uncertainties in recent years due to political and strategic factors.
The United States is even more through the "CHIPS and Science Act" and other legal forms to exclude China and restrict cooperation with Chinese companies.
Not only that, but there is also fierce competition between China and the United States in the financial field, which is not only related to the economic future of the two countries, but also affects the stability and development of the global economy.
We in China are not accustomed to such vexatious sanctions by the United States, and we in China have no habit of saying that the debt problem of the United States has already given them a great headache.
Therefore, the United States is not willing to completely tear the skin of China to us, and at present, the mainland and the United States have a sense of mutual checks and balances.
However, no matter how the checks and balances are, the mainland and the United States cannot completely decouple, after all, after so many years of development, there are too many intricate commodities and transactions, even if the United States repeatedly reduces the mainland's imports, but it cannot prevent other countries from importing the mainland's goods.
Judging from the current situation, it is very likely that the United States will shoot itself in the foot, and in the end it will lose more than it gains......
【Conclusion】
Although the United States has reduced imports from China, it has not been able to completely "decouple", and although Mexico has become the largest importer of goods from the United States, with an import value of $475 billion, it still cannot get rid of Chinese manufacturing.
The United States may not have expected the development of this matter, after all, their original intention in doing so was to get rid of the goods made in the mainland, but they did not expect it to be self-defeating.
In fact, as the two largest economies in the world, there is a strong complementarity between the mainland and the United States, so it is impossible to achieve complete decoupling......
Resources:
The Observer reported on April 24, 2024, "Exports to China Fall 4.3% YoY, US-China Business Council Sounds Alarm Bell for U.S. Lawmakers".
A report by the Institute of Regional and Country Studies of Peking University on December 11, 2023
Observer.com's report on February 8, 2024, "Mexico surpasses China, becoming the largest source of imports to the United States".
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