First of all, we will use the stock market to quantify the depth of this round of adjustment in the real estate industry, and then discuss the impact of policies on the real estate industry.
After all, in the history of the development of the real estate industry in the mainland, there has never been such a large adjustment and such a long time.
The trend of the A-share real estate index is actually clear at a glance, since the high point in 2015, the largest decline in the sector is as high as 71.64%, the index in April, and hit a new low, down to 757.39 points, what does this mean?
Basically back to the position at the beginning of 2014, the corresponding Shanghai Composite Index is below 2000 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped to 2635 points in this round, that is to say, the real estate sector is the main force of short-selling momentum in this round of A-share decline.
However, since the end of April, the real estate sector began to emerge, the trend is obviously strong, coupled with the linkage of bank stocks, the market has shown a strong large index, weak small index, the CSI 300 index on May 17 refreshed a new high, science and technology 50, Beijing Stock Exchange 50, hovering at a low level, struggling to find support.
At the end of the day, the policy stimulus to the real estate sector has exceeded market expectations.
Let's look at the blockbuster news on May 17: cancel the lower limit of the commercial personal housing loan interest rate policy for the first and second houses at the national level, and reduce the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the second house is adjusted to not less than 25%.
In addition, the recent mention of "coordinating the study and digestion of stock real estate and optimizing the policy measures for incremental housing, stepping up the construction of a new model of real estate development, and promoting the high-quality development of real estate" has sensitively captured that the "tone" of real estate may have really changed.
It can be said that in the past two years, the real estate bailout policy has been continuous, and the vast majority of cases are that after the market is a little hot, it will soon cool down, so that even observers who have been tracking major financial events for a long time will even see the real estate policy.
And this time, the rescue efforts are unprecedented, and judging from the market response, few people dare to continue to be bearish on real estate.
We can't help but ask, what factors determine that at this point in time, the visible hand of policy has begun to exert a large force?
Let's take a look at a set of data first, since this round of control of the real estate industry began in the second half of 2021, the national real estate development investment in 2021 still increased by 4.4%. In 2022, the largest decline will be made, with the national real estate development investment of about 13.29 trillion yuan, down 10.0% from 2021. This trend continued in 2023, but the decline narrowed, with real estate development investment falling by 9.6% nationwide compared to 2022.
The situation from January to March 2024 is like this, the national real estate development investment is 2,208.2 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year from 2023, and the residential investment is 1,658.5 billion yuan, down 10.5%.
On May 17, the latest data released showed that from January to April 2024, national real estate development investment fell by 9.8% year-on-year, and the forecast is a decline of 9.3%. In other words, real estate development investment in April was significantly lower than expected, and if you just look at April, real estate development investment may have fallen by more than 10%, and the decline rate in a single month is likely to exceed the situation in 2022, which is the fastest decline.
In other words, in April, the decline in real estate investment did not narrow, but widened. The decline in real estate investment is not terrible, but the acceleration of the decline is terrible. In order to prevent uncontrollable situations, strong policies are needed to stimulate the market at this point in time.
In addition, the new round of trade tariffs in the United States has increased uncertainty about the domestic economic recovery, and the importance of boosting the real estate industry has been superimposed.
Of course, based on the decline in investment in the real estate industry in 2024, it is not realistic for the whole industry to fully stabilize in the second half of this year.