Although India has problems of one kind or another, we must not underestimate this neighbor, because they have their own way of survival, and they are also rare countries in the world that have their own sovereignty and can give the United States a face.
That's pretty remarkable! Because of this, Modi's rating of 79 points is appropriate!
- Swordsman
one
India's election results are out, and many experts and scholars have also commented on India's election situation in the past two days.
Even the media in the United States and the West see it this way, and the well-known American media CNN reported it at the first time, believing that Modi's election results this time were very bad and facing an embarrassment that shocked him.
However, the swordsman personally believes that the overall performance of Indian Prime Minister Modi is still quite successful, very good, we have to give him at least a score of 79, which is only one point away from being excellent.
Why?
There are three reasons for this.
The first is a horizontal comparison with the situation in other countries, and secondly, a vertical view of the situation in India, and the other is the election results itself, which are quite good.
Then let's gossip into the main topic and look at this matter through these three different levels.
two
Let's start with the election results in India.
To get to the bottom of this, we need to have an understanding of India's electoral model.
First, India adopts a parliamentary federal system, or parliamentary republic, in which the parliament is divided into two houses: the upper house and the lower house.
The lower house, called the Lok Sabha, has a fixed 545 seats, and according to the constitution of the Federal Government of India, any party or coalition of parties can obtain the right to form a government as long as it can have more than half of the seats, or 273 seats, in the five-year election process.
This peculiar electoral model dictates that in India, the president is a symbolic position, and the real power is held by the prime minister, the leader elected by a multi-party coalition.
This is the largest political structure in India at the moment, and we can only do further analysis if we have an understanding of this political structure.
Second, India's overall political ecology is made up of two factions.
One faction is the coalition currently led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which is called the National League for Democracy (NLD), which is a coalition of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a number of other smaller parties.
The other faction is led by the Indian National Congress, the traditional party of the Gandi family, and their coalition of parties is called the Inclusive Alliance for National Development of India.
Due to the emergence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been in power for two consecutive decades, the Congress Party has been dealt a great blow.
After all, the position of the opposition party is too passive, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi often takes some extreme measures to crack down on the opposition, and even dares to freeze the election funds of the Congress party, not to mention other things.
So on the whole, Modi's ruling coalition is still in a very strong position.
Third, the final election results speak for themselves: Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won only 240 seats, not half of the 273 votes, but his coalition still has 280 seats, passing the line.
That's enough!
It's just barely crossed the line, is it really enough?
We only have to look at the situation on the side of the opposition coalition to understand everything.
The largest opposition party, the Congress Party, only won 99 seats, and the gap with Modi's BJP is too big!
The BJP has a total of 240 seats, and although it does not achieve a majority of one party, it is undoubtedly the largest party, and the other parties have even fewer seats!
Fourth, if the overall election results are okay, why do many people think that Modi's BJP is performing very poorly?
The reasons for this are complex.
There are both subjective and objective reasons.
Subjectively speaking, Modi, as a two-term prime minister, has done a lot of work before this election, and he looks quite ugly, and even some Western countries such as Britain and the United States have been overwhelmed, and they have accused Modi of suppressing the opposition party too much.
Modi himself has previously announced in a high-profile manner that he will win 400 seats in this parliament.
But the final election result is simply too far from 400 seats, only 240 seats, which is equivalent to a direct slap in the face!
Objectively speaking, although Modi's ruling coalition has more than half of the total votes, reaching 280 seats, in theory, other parties that are not the BJP can form a new loose coalition and even get the opportunity to form a government.
At the very least, Modi's BJP can be suppressed to a considerable extent in parliament, so that the BJP can no longer do whatever it wants.
But in fact, the probability of a new ruling coalition is almost zero, because Modi's BJP has formed a solid alliance with other parties and has a more similar governing philosophy.
Moreover, the BJP itself has a very large base that is far ahead, and the kind of loose alliance that exists in name is simply not able to move an inch under the impact of the BJP.
Regardless, for the first time since 2014, the BJP has not achieved a one-party majority, which is a tangible result.
In the past, they formed alliances with other parties, which was to give other people face, but now it is different, and the asking price is higher, and it is other parties that give Modi face.
Overnight, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went from being asked for a sacred status to an embarrassing situation in which it had to look at its eyebrows and look its back.
This will be fundamentally different.
This is the same as in the case of many joint-stock companies, if the big boss has an absolute controlling stake in his hands, 51% of the shares, he can do it when the board of directors is in a meeting, and if it only has more than 33% of the votes, then he can only have one veto, but he loses the qualification to act willfully.
It's as simple as that.
But even so, the swordsman still thinks that Modi is still quite good, especially in today's big international environment, and the facts have proved that he is a qualified politician who has passed the actual combat test.
叁
Let's start with international comparisons.
In the whole world, among the major powers other than China, Russia is undoubtedly in the first gear.
This is, of course, the election results!
Russian President Vladimir Putin's vote rate in this election process was as high as more than 80%, and even reached 85%!
This is unique in the entire international community, which shows that Putin's prestige among the Russian people is very high, and it also shows that Russia is currently facing internal and external troubles, and their people know that Russia cannot afford to toss at all, and only Putin, a strongman, can bring Russia out of the predicament.
Among the other major powers, there are really not many leaders who can outperform Modi's election results.
Let's talk about the United States, which many people have high hopes for, the Biden administration has lost the House of Representatives since the 2022 midterm elections, and now it is a typical lame government.
In addition, the situation of party struggle in the United States is much more intense than in India, and the strength between the two factions is basically in a state of half-pound and half-pound, rather than being like the Bharatiya Janata Party, which makes it difficult for the United States to truly implement many major policies, and it often keeps pushing down and starting over and repeatedly standing still.
Even for the sake of the interests of their small group, they often oppose for the sake of opposition, disregarding even the most basic decency!
It is precisely because of this situation that there will be a very strange phenomenon, whether it is Trump or Biden, these two US presidents want to win over Indian Prime Minister Modi as a pawn in their global strategy, but it is precisely Indian Prime Minister Modi who seized the opportunity and in turn used the United States, which is mired in vicious party disputes, as a tool of India.
With the help of the global strategy of the United States, especially their hysterical suppression policy against China, India has achieved rapid growth as a country.
That's pretty remarkable!
The pie in the world today is so big, and in the context that China has taken a considerable part of it, and in the context that the entire United States and the West still maintain a very strong position, we just need to think about how much it cost Russia to obtain their development rights. Do you still dare to underestimate India's leader, Modi?
Among the other major powers, Germany is in a worse situation, but it is worth mentioning.
Because the election situation in Germany is somewhat similar to that in India, the vast majority of cases are governed by coalitions of political parties.
There is a possibility that the party that becomes prime minister is not necessarily too strong, sometimes not even a 33 per cent veto, and more often than not, it has to compromise on the merits.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is a prime example, and many policies are difficult to implement by German Foreign Minister Baerbock's Green Party.
All that's left is!
If we compare the situation in Germany with India, we will understand that although Indian Prime Minister Modi's BJP does not have a majority of one party this time, they still have a very, very large voice, which is completely different from the situation in Germany.
It is precisely because of these horizontal comparisons, especially with the two superpowers, Russia and the United States, that we can have a real understanding of the reality of the country in India, and we can also give Modi an objective rating, and I personally feel that he is also a very good politician in the international community today.
Modi's name is not called in vain!
肆
Finally, the situation in India.
If Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's performance is so good, why did the swordsman only give him a score of 79?
Because Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's domestic policy has gone terribly wrong.
This is mainly manifested in two ways.
On the one hand, one of the main reasons why Modi's BJP has such a good base is that it uses religious factors.
There are many different religions in India, but Hinduism accounts for the vast majority, with a total of more than 900 million followers, the second largest sect is Islam, which also has a population of nearly 200 million, and the number of Sikhs is also quite large, and the others are small sects.
On the plus side, as long as the BJP adheres to its theocratic governing philosophy, it will have a very good foundation, but at the same time, it has also planted a huge mine in the country of India, which has invisibly torn Indian society very apart.
The Sikh-led Khalistan movement in India, which is currently gaining traction in the international community, is a prime illustration of this.
Modi's long-term disregard for the legitimate rights and interests of other minorities or sects will only divide the country even more, just like the hierarchical stratification that they have never resolved, which is bound to create a huge obstacle to India's development.
Another point is the short-sightedness of Modi's ruling team, although they have effectively used the historical opportunity of the United States and the West to suppress China, they have been confused by them at the specific operational level.
Corruption, inefficiency, and grey areas have made India the world's most famous foreign-owned graveyard under the Modi team, and it has not yet reached the heights they and the outside world expected.
Society is very cruel, God has given you a chance, but you can't grasp it, then God will definitely take it back!
epilogue
All in all, it is fitting to borrow a phrase from Professor Jin Canrong to summarize India, a country that has all kinds of problems, but is still the idol of many developing countries.
We Chinese often understand the situation of the whole world from China's unique model of learning hegemony, and naturally think that India is very ordinary, but our unique model of China is to put the homework there and even the United States cannot copy it, let alone other countries!
On the contrary, it is India's wall-to-wall model of many opportunities and many problems that has given many countries the power to set an example.
This is the real world.
Because of this, Modi's overall score of 79 should be appropriate.
We must not underestimate this neighbor, because they have their own way of survival, and they are also the rare countries in this world that have their own sovereignty and can give Americans a face.
That's enough!
I am a swordsman, in-depth thinking, rational analysis, accompany you to witness the evolution of the world's great changes that have not been seen in a century, please pay attention to what you like, if you have something to say, please leave a message to teach, thank you for reading.