The price of Feitian continued to decline, the share price of Moutai fell, and the scalpers couldn't bear it

Blue Whale Finance

2024-06-12 10:02Posted on the official account of Beijing Blue Whale Finance

The Dragon Boat Festival just passed, and the liquor dealers had a terrible time.

The wholesale price of Moutai Feitian Liquor is like a talc on the edge of a cliff, falling day by day, and every price fluctuation is like a sharp steel knife, deeply stabbing the hearts of dealers.

The myth of Moutai, which only rises but does not fall, has stood for nearly ten years, and has almost become the "totem of faith" in the liquor industry. Many liquor companies are pinning their hopes on the prosperity of this "big brother", because Moutai's steady performance often means the prosperity of the entire industry, and the products of other liquor companies can also have a wider price space under the leadership of Moutai.

However, when the price of Moutai Feitian Liquor began to decline, this undoubtedly dropped a bombshell on the entire liquor industry. People inside and outside the industry can't help but panic, if Moutai can't stabilize the price, then where will the other liquors go?

Dragon Boat Festival prices fell

"The recent market situation has been terrifying." A dealer said frankly in an interview with the Blue Whale financial reporter, "The price of Feitian sometimes fell by 20 yuan, and then rose back to 5 yuan the next day, and then fell by 20 yuan, and the most terrible thing is that there is no bottom in sight." ”

On June 11, the first working day after the Dragon Boat Festival, the channel quotation of Moutai Feitian Liquor has fallen to 2,420 yuan, and even in some wine trading groups, some sellers have quoted a low price of more than 2,300 yuan. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the wholesale price of this wine was stable at about 2,480 yuan, and the drop was as high as 60 yuan in just three days, which fell below the rumored "life and death line" of Moutai 2,500 yuan, which caused widespread concern in the market.

According to sources, due to the collapse of Moutai prices, some scalpers began to make trouble. In just a few hours, tens of thousands of scalpers poured into the liquor store to apply for invoicing.

In an interview with the Blue Whale financial reporter, the person in charge of the e-commerce channel of a wine company said that the price fluctuation of Feitian wine is so large that it is also a huge challenge for the e-commerce platform. Since e-commerce platforms generally require delivery within 20 days at the latest, if the buyer buys at the peak of the price, and the price has dropped significantly by the time the goods are shipped, then the buyer will face a huge loss. As a result, scalpers may choose to refuse the goods or ask for a VAT invoice to increase the cost to the seller.

"At present, the most affected are mainly those scalpers who specialize in reselling Moutai." A Moutai dealer analyzed in an interview, "The price of their goods is usually higher, and the value of their stockpiling may be as high as hundreds of millions or even billions." Once the price of Moutai fluctuates significantly, their capital chain is likely to break. In contrast, dealers with Moutai distribution rights are relatively calm, because their purchase costs are lower, and even if the price of Moutai falls again, there is a certain profit margin, "just make less." ”

On June 11, Kweichow Moutai (600519. SH) closed below the 1,600 yuan mark at 1,569.0 yuan per share, down 3.1%, the lowest this year. Kweichow Moutai replied to the media that the company has noticed the fluctuation of stock prices and is currently operating normally. In response to the continuous decline in the batch price of Moutai in the market, the company said that it would "pay attention to it in real time", and the recent sales situation is normal.

Big Brother doesn't win in the heights

The myth of Moutai, which only rises but does not fall, has stood for nearly ten years, and has almost become the "totem of faith" in the liquor industry. Many liquor companies are pinning their hopes on the prosperity of this "big brother", because Moutai's steady performance often means the prosperity of the entire industry, and the products of other liquor companies can also have a wider price space under the leadership of Moutai.

However, when the price of Moutai Feitian Liquor began to decline, this undoubtedly dropped a bombshell on the entire liquor industry. People inside and outside the industry can't help but panic, because if Moutai can't stabilize the price, then where will the other liquors go?

According to the reporter's investigation, the current prices of high-end liquor such as Wuliangye's Puwu, Luzhou Laojiao's 1573 and Langjiu's Laoqinghualang are stable in the price range of 900-1000 yuan. However, once the price of Feitian Moutai continues to fall, this price range is bound to be seriously squeezed, and the market space of other liquor brands will also face the risk of being compressed.

In 2014, due to the impact of the eight policies, the price of Feitian Moutai plummeted to 800 yuan, and the flagship products of Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, Puwu and 1573, also fell to below 600 yuan, and the living space of the entire liquor industry suffered an unprecedented compression.

Now, whether the past will repeat itself and where the future of the liquor industry will go has become a question that every industry insider and consumer is concerned about.

A senior industry insider said in an interview with the Blue Whale financial reporter that in the current complex economic environment, it is difficult for every industry to stand alone, and the liquor industry is no exception. He analyzed that due to the profound changes in the economic cycle and the consumption environment, rigid demand has decreased. The fluctuation in Moutai's price this time is likely to be triggered by a chain reaction triggered by the sell-off of inventory by one or a few large dealers. Despite this, Moutai, as a leading brand in the liquor industry, is still very resilient. It can only be said that the uncertainty of the current economy has been transmitted to the end of the market, resulting in the fading of Moutai's financial attributes to a certain extent. "Moutai has sufficient supply in recent years, and the output of Moutai in 2023 will be 57,000 tons, which makes the social inventory abundant and the scarcity of Moutai reduced. Under the influence of supply and demand, an increase in supply may lead to a decrease in prices. At the same time, it also means that Moutai is no longer as scarce as it used to be, making it less attractive as an investment product. ”

The underpinning of the "family".

For Moutai, the decline in its price can often be effectively adjusted through the "volume control" strategy. Previously, there was news that the policy of "enterprises subscribing to 1499 yuan Feitian" in many places was suspended, and the reason behind it was that the number of applicant companies was too large and the number of places was saturated. This change actually implies that Moutai is already actively taking volume control measures to stabilize market prices.

Xiao Zhuqing, a marketing expert in the liquor industry, said in an interview with Blue Whale Financial Reporter that he expects Moutai Chairman Zhang Deqin to push traditional dealers to use their own funds to buy low-priced Moutai liquor in order to increase the market transaction price of Kweichow Moutai. This strategy aims to jointly maintain Moutai's brand value and market price stability through the active participation of dealers.

At the symposium of dealers in Kweichow Moutai, Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangsu provinces held on May 10, Chairman Zhang Deqin emphasized the important position and key role of dealers in the growth of Moutai. He said that dealers are Moutai's family and an indispensable support force for Moutai. In the future, Moutai will continue to respect and care for dealers, and work together with dealers to promote the better development of Moutai.

Zhang Deqin's return is not accidental. Some analysts believe that the re-appointment of Zhang Deqin as chairman of Kweichow Moutai is precisely because he has a deep background and strong mobilization ability of the old Moutai department and the old distributor of Moutai. At the critical moment, he was able to take on the key task of pushing Moutai through the difficulties and achieving stable development.

This strategy is not the first of its kind in Zhang. In the last industry adjustment period around 2014, Moutai merchants also bought a large number of Feitian Moutai at a loss to raise prices. Wu Xiangdong, chairman of Zhenjiu Lidu Group, mentioned in a public speech that a batch of Moutai operated by Huazhi Liquor Store at that time was facing losses due to high prices, and each bottle of Moutai even had to lose 10 to 20 yuan. However, with the gradual recovery of the market, the value of these inventory Moutai has gradually recovered. These big businessmen "won the bet".

Despite the complexity of the current market environment, a big businessman said in an interview with the Blue Whale financial reporter that once the price of Feitian Moutai reaches a certain psychological price, he will still buy it. "As a leading brand in the liquor industry, Moutai's rigid demand attribute determines its irreplaceability in the market." But he did not disclose the exact price.

View original image 130K

•