618 big promotion liquor is in the "catastrophe": not only Moutai, but also famous liquor such as Xijiu has fallen below price

Southern Metropolis Daily

2024-06-18 20:59Published on the official account of Guangdong Southern Metropolis Daily

618 big promotion liquor is in the "catastrophe": not only Moutai, but also famous liquor such as Xijiu has fallen below price

The month-long e-commerce "618 Promotion", although it gave consumers benefits, also made liquor companies and distributors "sweat".

In the "618 Promotion", the prices of some famous liquors have reached a "record low", among which the impact of Kweichow Moutai's Feitian Moutai has attracted much attention, but in addition to Moutai, the retail price of the main products of many well-known brands is lower than the batch price, and the original price system has been affected.

According to the reporter of the Nandu Bay Finance Society-Wine New Consumption Index Research Group in an interview, wine companies and distributors have maintained restraint on the 618 promotion this year, but in the drainage method of low-price subsidies after receiving goods in the e-commerce platform market, wine companies seem to have "nothing to do".

Even if the 618 promotion is a short-term behavior, and there are restrictions such as purchase restrictions, can the price of alcohol that has been beaten down be "recovered" afterwards? Under the pressure of e-commerce, will the ecology of the liquor industry usher in reconstruction?

The 618 promotion inverted the price of liquor and the batch price, and the liquor index "evaporated" by 14% in the same period

Even though all promotional products in the "618 Promotion" are restricted, wine companies are still deeply affected, among which Kweichow Moutai is considered to be one of the most influential wine companies.

According to a previous report by a reporter from Nandu Bay Finance Society, under the big promotion, the retail price of Feitian Moutai after subsidy on the e-commerce platform has been as low as 2210 yuan/bottle to 2299 yuan/bottle, and this price superimposed on the platform delivery mechanism not only makes the "scalper" backwater, but also makes the batch price of Feitian Moutai continue to fall for nearly a month, and the batch price of Feitian Moutai in 2024 will even approach 2200 yuan/bottle for a while.

Although the price of Feitian Moutai is declining, the product is still sold at a premium compared to the suggested retail price of 1499 yuan/bottle, while the price of other famous wines is directly "upside down" with the batch price.

In this "618 Promotion", the eighth-generation Wuliangye (52 degrees, 500ml), Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees, 500ml) and other famous wines with a price of 1,000 yuan were quoted as new low prices of 821 yuan/bottle and 797.5 yuan/bottle respectively after subsidies. In addition, a number of leading liquor companies, including Guizhou Xijiu, Langjiu, Fenjiu, Yanghe and Jiannanchun, have achieved new low prices for their main products.

Taking Guizhou Xijiu as an example, the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society noticed during the visit that the company's main products Junpin Xijiu and Cellar 1988 have fallen in price to varying degrees, especially the recommended retail price of 1498 yuan/bottle of Junpin Xijiu, the average retail price is about 830 yuan/bottle, but there is a unsalable situation on the terminal.

In the "618 Promotion", the average retail price of Junpin Xijiu fell further, with a price of 810 yuan/bottle to 815 yuan/bottle, of which on a large e-commerce platform, it hit a new low of 735 yuan/bottle through "group purchase + subsidy" and other methods; The price of the company's 10 billion-level single product cellar 1988,618 has been lower than 450 yuan/bottle, of which the lowest retail price has reached 415 yuan/bottle. From the point of view of the batch price, on June 18, the batch price of Junpin Xijiu was 790 yuan/bottle, and the cellar 1988 was 465 yuan/bottle.

In the 618 promotion, Junpin Xijiu has fallen further and has fallen below the batch price.

Langjiu, which is in the same head sauce wine company as Xijiu, has a low price in 618. In the 618 promotion, the price fell to 800 yuan/bottle to 805 yuan/bottle, and from the point of view of the batch price, Qinghualang is currently 825 yuan/bottle, which is also lower than the batch price. But as of press time, the Qinghualang sold at a low price has been sold out.

In the big promotion, Qinghualang was not "spared".

The reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society noticed that the products of other leading wine companies also appeared "new low". Yanghe's high-end Dream Blue M9 and Dream Blue M6+, the subsidized prices are 899 yuan/bottle and 538 yuan/bottle respectively; Fenjiu's high-end blue and white 30 (domestic version) and the main sub-high-end blue and white 20 are quoted at about 769 yuan/bottle and 340 yuan/bottle after subsidies; Jian Nanchun's main sub-high-end single product crystal sword, after subsidies and grouping, the lowest price reached 344 yuan / bottle. The prices of the above-mentioned products are lower than the batch price of dealers.

A number of famous wines are lower than the batch price, and Jiannanchun is "rare" to be traded below 350 yuan.

The low price of Moutai caused by the big promotion, as well as the inversion of the retail price and the batch price of well-known products, directly affected the confidence of the capital market in the liquor sector.

Since the e-commerce platform launched a month-long 618 promotion on May 20, the liquor sector has been declining. The Flush Liquor Index closed at 3156.29 points on June 18, down 0.98%, with a cumulative decline of 14.48% since May 20, and 15 of the 21 trading days closed down. These include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, whose stock prices have fallen by more than 10%.

Will the price of alcohol "recover" after the big sale? After "618" last year, the price of liquor fell

It is understood that the 618 promotion is one of the important nodes of the industry to clean up inventory. However, the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society noticed that this year, liquor companies and distributors have maintained a certain degree of "restraint", such as the above-mentioned liquor companies, although their "official flagship stores" on the e-commerce platform participated in the 618 promotion, but the price reduction was not large, and the main products were generally maintained at the batch price of 80 yuan or above.

A dealer who continued to provide terminal wine price data to the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society said that this year, whether it is a wine company or a dealer at all levels, the attitude towards 618 has been a cautious wait-and-see, and some wine companies have repeatedly told dealers to raise prices even before 618, even if they participate in price reduction promotions, the product reduction should not be "lower than the batch price".

The dealer also revealed that the 618 promotion "price-breaking" products mainly come from the e-commerce platform, "because the amount of goods they take is not small, for them, 618 is a reasonable time to clear the inventory", the dealer also said that in addition to the inherent inventory, the platform side also collects part of the famous wine with a price of 1,000 yuan in the market, "through low-price subsidies to divert traffic."

In fact, it is not the first time that the retail price of liquor and the batch price of liquor in the 618 promotion have been inverted. In the same period last year, when the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society paid attention to the performance of the wine price of the 618 promotion, a number of famous wines were "tentatively" sold below the batch price. For example, the price of the eighth-generation Wuliangye after receiving the subsidy went to 859 yuan/bottle, which was lower than the price of 889 yuan/bottle in the distributor plan at that time; After receiving the subsidy, the price of Guojiao 1573 is 939 yuan per bottle, which is equivalent to the batch price; After the subsidy of Junpin liquor, the lowest price was 905 yuan per bottle, and the price was lower than the batch price at that time.

According to the observation of the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society for a year, after the "price breaking" of 618 last year, the price system of specific liquor has been greatly affected, for example, in the following year, both the batch price and the retail price have dropped sharply, and the price has fallen by more than 200 yuan per bottle; After the 618 promotion of Guojiao 1573 last year, the retail price also suffered a "heavy blow", and the quotation of some terminals for Guojiao 1573 was lower than 1,000 yuan for a long time; The eighth-generation Wuliangye has been relatively unaffected, as the company has adopted a number of price strategies in the market in the past year, such as in March this year, the company said in a statement that the eighth-generation Wuliangye sold at a low price on a large shopping platform was a "fake".

It is understood that even if wine companies use low-price sales on e-commerce platforms to control goods and even "block", they seem to have "nothing to do" about frequent "big promotions" to break prices. For example, in this promotion, the e-commerce platform purchases products from the market "regardless of cost" to sell, and for some dealers with high inventory, e-commerce procurement is an opportunity to clear inventory.

The industry believes that even if the purchase is limited as a restriction, some products "break the price" during the promotion period, which has a great impact on the current price system of liquor. Ouyang Qianli, an analyst in the liquor industry, told the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society that the e-commerce promotion price cannot theoretically be lower than the offline batch price or the lowest transaction price, so as to ensure that dealers, terminal stores and other links have certain profits. However, when the platform rushes its performance, it will choose the method of "breaking the price" to attract offline terminal stores and group buying customers to place orders online, after all, these orders are much larger than the orders of online shopping users.

"Every time a 'price break' is experienced, the winery has to adopt a policy to appease the distributor so that the distributor does not return or leave the market. For dealers, often in order to maintain the terminal system, it is also necessary to release greater policies and lower prices to rebuild the distribution system. Ouyang Qianli said.

Cai Xuefei, an analyst in the wine industry, previously told a reporter from Nandu Bay Finance Society that this round of wine price decline is more due to the external market environment affecting consumer confidence, and middlemen selling goods have led to price stampede, product prices need to be repaired, and channel flexibility also needs to be restored.

E-commerce is "pressing step by step", will the traditional sales system of liquor be "reshaped"?

In addition to traditional e-commerce platforms, the rise of video e-commerce, community e-commerce and live broadcast e-commerce has allowed wine companies and distributors to obtain a major channel for direct contact with consumers.

According to a previous report by a reporter from Nandu Bay Finance Society, even if the price has been repeatedly broken, the layout of e-commerce channels of wine companies is still strengthening, such as Wuliangye, Yanghe and Shanxi Fenjiu, which focus on online efforts, and the revenue of online channels reached 4.165 billion yuan, 436 million yuan and 1.667 billion yuan respectively last year;

At the end of last year, Hao Hongfeng, the founder of Jiuxian Group, publicly predicted that in the next five years, online sales would share 50% of the sales of the alcohol industry. The industry believes that if it is divided according to the proportion of 50% of sales, the current offline sales system of liquor may be impacted.

According to the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society, the dealer model is the most traditional and largest sales channel for liquor, and in terms of profit model, one of the dealers is to make a profit by taking the price (including the ex-factory price) and the difference between the sales price, which is the birth of the liquor batch price, which is mainly the price set by the first-class merchants for the second-level and below dealers; On the other hand, the write-off of expenses such as dealers and enterprise markets is also another way to make profits.

The industry believes that according to the traditional offline liquor sales model, the factory needs to set high prices and strictly control the price in order to retain the profits of each distribution level, but this is just the opposite of the logic of low-price drainage of e-commerce. This series of entanglements of interests has put e-commerce platforms and wine companies in a state of "loving and killing each other".

So, under a series of price inversions and various consumers "voting with their feet", will e-commerce channels reconstruct traditional liquor sales channels? In this regard, Ouyang Qianli believes that for high-end liquor, there is a phenomenon of resource exchange between buyers and sellers, and there will be no restructuring in the short term. On the other hand, low-end liquor, beer and other products are likely to reconstruct their distribution channels online. In addition, as online platforms pay more and more attention to "instant retail", it means that the e-commerce model of "online ordering, offline delivery" will occupy an increasing share.

So, after this round of "618 Promotion", will the retail price and batch price of liquor continue to fall or return to its original state? In this regard, the industry also maintains an optimistic attitude, the above-mentioned interviewed dealers believe that the low-price sales of 618 e-commerce are mainly caused by tens of billions of subsidies, which is a short-term behavior, and the business model of normal liquor dealers has not changed, "some of the large e-commerce platforms that operate liquor have not dropped too hard in 618, and try their best to integrate into the existing liquor sales ecology, after all, all the prices are broken, and everyone has no business to do."

Reporter Bei Bei of Nandu Bay Financial Society

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