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On 15 June, Allah Lebanese launched another attack on Israel, not the first time that Lebanon has attacked Israel. And Lebanon's "allies" are not far behind, Iraq, Yemen, the Houthis have entered the war one after another, and even Afghanistan has taken action. And on 16 June, Lebanon continued to export fire into Israel.
Before that, even the United States was forced by the situation to persuade it to stop, but Israel did not comply. Now it will have to pay the price for its own willfulness.
Lebanon and Israeli grievances
Why is Lebanon playing such a role in this Middle East mess? This brings us to the old feud between Lebanon and Israel. In 1975, Lebanon was in the midst of a civil war, and the fundamental reason for the outbreak of this civil war was that Lebanon was a multi-sectarian country, with Christians and Muslims prevalent in its interior, and any one side was too powerful to cause dissatisfaction with the other, which led to conflicts. It is difficult to reconcile the contradictions between religious beliefs, and once they are linked to politics, they will turn into a struggle between the armies.
And there is another important reason why one side of Lebanon supports the PLO in Palestine to attack Israel from Lebanon, while the other side does not support the PLO to attack Israel from Lebanon, and the Palestinian people's frequent protests against Israel in Lebanon have caused Israel to fight back, and ultimately hurt the Lebanese people. For these two reasons, civil war officially broke out in Lebanon in 1982.
This civil war lasted for 16 years and could not be stopped at all for a short time. However, Israel intervened, and in the seventh year of the Lebanese civil war, Israeli troops took advantage of the situation and occupied large swaths of Lebanese land in one fell swoop. A large number of refugees in Lebanon have been displaced and left homeless. At this time, Iran came to the aid of the Lebanese, and the Lebanese Allah Party was born, and it is worth mentioning that the Lebanese Allah Party also belongs to the Shiite sect of Islam. The main purpose of this party, which was born during the war, was to fight the Israelites and drive Israel out of their land.
How does the Lebanese experience feel so familiar? Yes, the Palestinian experience is in fact quite similar to that of Lebanon, where Hamas was founded during the years of war and whose goal is to fight the Israelis, and even Hamas, whose aims are more radical, calling the act of waging war against Israel "jihad". As religious countries, the word "jihad" is supreme and shows that they are very hostile to Israel.
Moreover, like Hamas in Palestine, Allah in Lebanon has not been less involved in Israel over the years. In 2006, Lebanon launched a surprise attack on northern Israel, killing eight Israeli soldiers and capturing two Israeli soldiers. And the reason given by the Lebanese side is to support the Palestinian movement.
Also in 2006, Palestinian Hamas stood out in democratic elections, but Israel and the United States could not stand it, because Hamas's purpose is anti-Israel, and the United States, as Israel's "big brother", naturally did not allow its "little brother" to be threatened, so they joined forces to impose sanctions on Palestine.
Hamas naturally will not be arrested, and Allah Lebanon, as an organization with the same experience and goals as Hamas, also attacked Israel, but this move made Lebanon very angry, and said that Lebanon's behavior is provoking a war between the two countries, and Israel will definitely make Lebanon pay the price, so the two sides fight each other.
In August 2006, the United Nations intervened and mediated between the two countries, which calmed the two sides and decided on a ceasefire. However, the contradictions between the two countries have not been fundamentally resolved, which also paves the way for the resumption of war between Lebanon and Israel.
It was not until 2022 that Israel provoked Lebanon again, firing dozens of artillery shells into Lebanese territory without causing casualties, and then openly provoking a dispute with Lebanon over natural resources and knocking out three Israeli drones. It is clear that Israel has struck Lebanon, but it has not dealt a deadly blow. Such provocations
The Lebanese were furious, and the smell of gunpowder on both sides became stronger. After the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in 2023, Lebanon launched another attack on Israel, thus kicking off the Lebanese-Israeli war again.
The four countries are united, and Israel is in trouble
Lebanon's offensive unites Iraq, Yemen's Houthi rebels and Afghanistan. In fact, they've already teamed up before. Even after the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Syria was followed by an airstrike on Israel, with the help of Lebanon, Iraqi and Yemeni Houthi rebels.
This time, Lebanon is still ruthless, throwing hundreds of rockets at Israel, and the Israeli air defense system, which is known as the "iron network of the Middle East", is powerless. In fact, Israel's "iron network in the Middle East" has already appeared relatively weak in previous battles.
In particular, when Iran attacked Israel by air, Iran's missiles could even ignore the existence of the "Middle East iron network" to strike at Israel. But this time, Israel does not have the help of the United States. While the Houthis in Iraq and Yemen have also fired missiles at official Israeli counterparts, Afghanistan has been more conservative in proposing to join the Palestinian defense.
It can be seen that Israel has already presented a situation in the Middle East where everyone is shouting and fighting, so how does Israel respond? What does the future hold for them?
How the Middle East should go, will Israel give in
In fact, according to the character of the country of Israel, it is very difficult to get them to swallow their anger. Sure enough, just today, the southern part of Lebanon was attacked by Israel, and a high-ranking Lebanese official was tragically killed.
In this situation, the fighting between Lebanon and Israel will definitely not stop there, and the two sides may start a "turn-based" attack on each other, as Iran and Israel have done before. Unless, as in the previous Lebanese-Israeli war, the two sides can be brought to a halt through the mediation of the United Nations.
However, the prestige of the United Nations in recent years does not seem to be sufficient, and when Israel attacked the Palestinian Gaza Strip, the United Nations intervened in mediating an inhumane attack on Israel to cease fire during Ramadan. But Israel's symbolic withdrawal was followed by an even larger assault that drew international condemnation.
However, in this case, Lebanon may be on the side of the advantage, mainly because many countries in the Middle East are already bitter about each other, and in such a situation, Israel has no chance of winning without the help of the United States.
The reason why the United States changed its attitude and persuaded Israel to stop is simply because the United States sees that the situation is not right, and the weather vane tells them that this is the most appropriate time to end the chaos in the Middle East. The first is that the catastrophe of Palestinian civilians is part of the category of injustice that will be included in the category of injustice as long as Israel and the United States continue to commit atrocities against Palestinian areas.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the last century, the United States could even be said to be a dominant power, and its hegemonism can be described as tried and tested repeatedly, and many countries in Europe and Asia did not even dare to say a single "no" in the face of US demands. But now the times are different from the past, and now the world powers have risen one after another, especially the mainland and Russia, which are completely unafraid of the United States, and can even wrestle with him.
The Russians drove their warships and nuclear submarines to Cuba and had some exchanges with the Cuban leaders, and Cuba said that it welcomed Russia's arrival very much. This frightened the United States, knowing that Cuba is only a few hundred kilometers away from the American mainland, and if Russia uses Cuba as a springboard in the Americas and thus threatens the American mainland, then the United States will not even be able to sleep.
Once the flames of war spread to the United States, the good days of the United States will be completely over. It is undoubtedly unacceptable for a hegemonic country to change from a country that frequently interferes in the territorial sovereignty of other countries to a country that is being interfered with.
Therefore, the United States is so eager to persuade Israel to cease fire, mainly because of the problem of mismatch of interests. The United States' support for Israel is not only morally inconsistent, but also the frequent attacks by the Houthis in Yemen have also caused a headache for the United States' fleet to support Israel.
In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war is now at a critical stage, and the United States has to withdraw some of its forces in the Middle East, clench its fists, and intervene in key international issues.
The trend of the Middle East will change completely after the United States changes its attitude, Israel loses the support of the United States, and a ceasefire in the Middle East is only a matter of time.
Reference: "Israeli Army: Lebanon Will Face 'Devastating Consequences'" Reference
""Special Article" Israeli Army Kills Key Members of Lebanese Allah Elite Troops" Xinhua News Agency International
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