The above tells how Argentina went from a colony to a developed country at the beginning of the 20th century, but political turmoil made prosperity unsustainable, in the case of economic deterioration, Argentines swayed left and right between democracy and authoritarianism, and the Cold War forced people to choose between capitalism and socialism, but the Argentines chose Juan Perón, who took the third way, but the loyalty of the people was unstable, and the so-called third way offended both the left and the right, so the country's political situation fell into turmoil again. Perón was finally ousted by the people who had brought him to power, and military politicians came to power again, where will the Argentine economy go?
The current President of Argentina, Javier Milley
1. The era of government intervention
After Juan Perón stepped down, General Eduardo Lonadi became the new leader, but his moderate style displeased the militants in the army, and he was ousted after only two months in power, and General Pedro Eugenio Aramburu, who succeeded him, did not become a traditional caudillo, although he suppressed the Peronists, but abolished the 1949 law on the unlimited re-election and centralization of power of the country's leaders, restored the original constitution, and re-established the autonomy of universities and journalism that were suppressed by Peron. In 1958, Argentina held a presidential election, and the radical civic coalition UCR, which had been suppressed by Peron, returned, but the party was divided on how to deal with the Peronists, Arturo Frandez, a lawyer and journalist, believed that the Peronists should not be banned from running, and the leader of the UCR party, Ricardo Barbin, was firmly opposed to Peron, so Frandez formed the citizens' radical intransigence coalition UCRI to confront the UCR, because Peronism was still influential in the country, On the basis of the original UCR comrades and with the blessing of the Peronists, Frandez was elected the new president of Argentina.
Pedro Eugenio Aramburu
Although the military was wary of Frandiz's pro-Peron colors, they still transferred power to him as promised, but what Flandiz inherited was actually a mess. For the political purpose of the right-wing color and to eliminate the adverse impact of the Peron period on the economy, Argentina led by the military joined the International Monetary Fund IMF and borrowed heavily in a large amount, but in order to obtain this loan, Argentina accepted the harsh conditions, privatization and the immersion of foreign capital squeezed the domestic national economy, so that the national economic system established during the Peron period was disintegrated, and finally not only did not solve the economic problems, but there was a trade deficit so that it failed to repay the loan on time, and Argentina began to fall into a foreign debt vortex. By the time Frandez came to power, Argentina had a foreign debt of $1.8 billion. In order to change the status quo, the economic policy adopted by Frandez is called developmentalism, that is, the development of industry, and the main measures include attracting foreign investment to promote industrialization, promoting oil self-sufficiency, and reducing the government's operating costs for public transportation.
Arturo Frandiz
Oil self-sufficiency was the key to industrialization, and the dilemma at that time was that the output of 5 million tons could not meet the domestic demand of 15 million tons, so it was necessary to import, Frandez continued Peron's policy of nationalizing oil, but the need for advanced extraction technology and international cooperation was opposed by the left, but Frandez said that he "would rather abandon the unrealistic intellectual attitude than defend the national interest", and the military also supported Frandez's policy based on national defense considerations. In 1960, the state-owned oil company YPF was able to establish itself in the petrochemical industry and become self-sufficient, oil and gas production tripled in three years, and the foreign exchange that was previously used to buy energy was finally used to import industrial equipment, and in 1958, the state-owned coal company YCF was established to solve the problem of insufficient coal self-sufficiency, in addition to vigorously developing the steel industry, attracting investment on the basis of state-owned enterprises to promote the expansion of the steel industry. As American businesses were in a period of expansion during this period, Frandez's efforts to attract investment were successful, and the sudden increase in investment overheated the economy.
公民激进不妥协联盟( UCRI )
Inflation in Argentina reached 113% at the beginning of 1959, but it fell in 1960 due to increased oil extraction and production, as well as renewed appeals to the IMF, and the development of the steel and petrochemical industries also led to the modernization of agriculture, with fertilizers, pesticides, and mechanization contributing to increased agricultural productivity. The automobile industry is a key industry for Frandez, and one of the aims is to reduce the pressure on public transportation by increasing the number of private cars, and international brands such as Citroen and General Motors have landed in Argentina, which not only created 150,000 jobs, but also saved the consumption of car imports, and Argentina's automobile production increased from 29,000 units in 1957 to 128,000 units in 1962. The transport reform, which required the scrapping of 32 percent of the existing railroad tracks, the dismissal of 70,000 railway employees, and the scrapping of all steam locomotives, as well as 70,000 wagons and 3,000 trains, sparked a workers' strike movement that plunged the country back into turmoil and weakened the authority of the constitutional government.
A gas pipeline under construction in 1958
The lifting of the ban on Peronism in 1958 by Frandez and the return of the leadership of the General Confederation of Labor to the 20-member committee formed by the Peronists and independent trade unions in 1961 increased workers' autonomy but also increased resistance to economic reforms, having previously given the military greater autonomy to suppress subversive activities. In the 1962 legislature elections, the Peronists won nine constituencies, the military was dissatisfied with the tolerance of the Peronists and staged a coup d'état in March of that year, the President of the Senate pro tempore, José María Guido, came to complete the remainder of Frandez's term, the economic situation deteriorated due to political turmoil and borrowed $100 million from the IMF, Peronism was banned again, and in the 1963 presidential elections UCR candidate Arturo Umberto Ilya was elected as the new president. As soon as he came to power, he annulled the contracts signed by the YPF with foreign oil companies during the Frondiczi administration and paid large sums of money, and foreign investors withdrew sharply, and oil production fell and imports were again needed. Ilya fearlessly offended the United States, opened trade markets with the PRC and maintained relations with the USSR.
Frandez inspecting the car
Instead of borrowing a penny from the IMF because of the deterioration of commercial relations with the United States, Ilya reduced his external debt from $2.1 billion to $1.7 billion with a trade surplus. Ilya strengthened state intervention in the economy, through exchange rate controls, prevented the peso from appreciating in the economic expansion phase and boosted exports, and due to strong production growth, the fiscal deficit relative to GDP fell from 6.79% in 1962 and 6.13% in 1963 to 5.82% in 1964, 3.59% in 1965 and 4.19% in 1966, GDP increased by 10.3% in 1964 and 9.1% in 1965, and at the social level Ilya increased by 23% In 1964, Argentina promulgated a minimum wage law stipulating that the minimum monthly salary was 82.67 US dollars, while China's average annual wage was only 580 yuan at the same time, at the exchange rate of about 235.78 US dollars, and the monthly salary was 19.65 US dollars, which means that the minimum wage of people in one month is equal to our average salary for more than four months, which shows that Argentina is still strong at this time.
Arturo Umberto Ilya
However, Ilya made the same mistake as Frandez, which led to the Peronists taking advantage of the permissive media environment to attack Elijah, and the victory of the Peronist Awami League in the 1965 House of Representatives elections also displeased the military. Ilya's economic policy also made mistakes, the printing of money to cover the fiscal deficit without borrowing foreign debt led to the depreciation of the currency, and the refusal of the Congress to approve the 1966 budget led to a slowdown in growth, although the average real wages of the people increased by nearly 25% during his administration, and the unemployment rate fell from 8.8% to 4.6%, but the people proved to be difficult to please, and the growth did not stop but only slowed down, and the opposition took the opportunity to criticize his policies for actually doing nothing. In June 1966, amid the indifference of the Argentine people, the military took the opportunity to launch a coup d'état, and the constitution was frozen again.
Demonstrations against Ilya
2. Attempts at market reform
The new leader was the former Commander-in-Chief of the Army, Juan Carlos Onganía, who appointed the Minister of Economy under General Aramburu and the liberal economist Adalbert Krieger Wassena, who suggested that "private capital should increase its participation in the sector, while the nation-state is primarily responsible for creating the necessary macroeconomic conditions for investment", in essence a market economy with Argentine characteristics, with specific measures such as devaluation of the currency to promote exports, an increase in export withholding taxes to cover the fiscal deficit and a reduction in dependence on external debt, Building dams to address power shortages, improving the transport infrastructure, improving export efficiency, opening up oil production to private companies, and reducing import taxes to promote competition. From 1966 to 1969, the inflation rate successfully fell from 31.9% to 7.6%, and GDP growth reached 6.8%.
Juan Carlos Ongania
Wassena's reform environment was much better than Milley's today, with less resistance to reform under the protection of the military, and the penalties for disruptive activities were three to two years in prison, and collective labor agreements were canceled, so the reforms were easier to implement, but in practice they were at the expense of the masses. One of the measures of the Wassena's reforms also included the freezing of wages, the low unemployment rate but the decline in real incomes, the agricultural sector also suffered from high withholding taxes on exports, the rise in wholesale and retail prices, the increased pressure on the masses to live, the Argentine people paid the price for their indifference, the people were unwilling to endure the pains of the reforms, and the working class, which had been constantly "loved" during the constitutional government, could not stand such anger, so under the instigation of Peronists, socialists and other currents of thought, in 1969 guerrilla warfare, Demonstrations and other activities were raging, and Ongania did not have an iron-clad will to reform, although there were acts of repression, but in order to calm the anger, he immediately replaced Wassena, and the interruption of reform led to the gradual flight of foreign capital, economic growth slowed, and the fierce labor movement also worsened the economic situation.
Adalbert Krieg Wassena
In 1970, the former junta leader Aramburu was kidnapped and executed by Peronist guerrillas, and dissatisfaction within the military with the government's incompetence led to the ouster of Ongania and his replacement by Brigadier General Roberto Marcelo Lewveston. In order to cope with the adverse effects of liberalization reforms, Lewveston put the brakes back on protectionist and nationalization policies, and raised wages in an attempt to win the hearts and minds of the people, but the withdrawal of foreign capital led to worsening inflation and more frequent protests, and nine months later Lewiveston stepped down, and the Army General Staff Alejandro Agustín Lanús took the helm, Lanús carried out pragmatic diplomacy, maintained good relations with China, and lent 40 billion pesos to small and medium-sized enterprises at the economic level and suspended imports to prevent capital flight. In 1972, the economic situation was not bad, and in 1972 there was a surplus in terms of trade, but the junta decided to relinquish power in order to appease the people, and after negotiations with the opposition, in 1973 a presidential election was held, and Héctor José Campola was appointed by Peron, who was abroad, to be elected as the new president of the Justice Party.
Alejandro Agustín Lanus
III. The Third Peronism
When Campora came to power, he aimed to develop the economy while balancing the interests of all parties, so he threw out the social contract theory. The theory was put forward by José Bel Gerbad, a Jewish-Argentine communist who served as Minister of Economy, through a tripartite agreement between the government, representatives of small and medium-sized enterprises, the CGE (Economic Federation) and the CGT, the main points of which were to freeze prices to stop inflation, suspend collective wage bargaining for two years after a general wage increase to stop the labor conflict, and aim to achieve 40-50% of the national income of employees in the next four years to increase real wages, solve the problem of inflation, and consolidate economic growth. Campora's coming to power was actually paving the way for Peron's return, so he voluntarily resigned after only a little more than a month in power and was replaced by Raul Rastiri of the same party as interim president, and arranged for Peron to return to China to run for the next president, Argentina held another presidential election in September of that year, Peron was re-elected president with 61.86% of the vote, the presidential change did not affect Gerbad's reforms, inflation slowed to 12%, and real wages rose by more than 20% in the first year. GDP growth accelerated from 3 percent in 1972 to more than 6 percent in 1974.
Héctor José Campora
The improvement in the economic situation encouraged Perón to pursue interventionist social and economic policies similar to those he had pursued in the 40s, namely nationalization and the improvement of workers' conditions, but the country was once again mired in a new political struggle. The right wing of the Justice Party regarded the left wing of the party as a socialist force and demanded action against the left, while the left wing regarded the right-wing bureaucracy as "traitors" and waged a violent struggle, and the assassination of CGT Secretary General Rudge, the representative of the moderate right wing of the Justice Party, made Peron's contradictions with the left irreconcilable, although Peron still tried to integrate the left and right at the last moment, but Peron, who suffered from prostatic enlargement and heart disease, died in July 1974 at the age of 78. Peron became acting president, Isabel was closely linked to the right, the left wing in the government was kicked out, and Gerbad, the enforcer of the social contract, was dismissed.
On June 12, 1974, Perón greeted supporters at his last rally
In fact, the contract existed in name only. At the end of 1973, the oil crisis led to the restriction of exports, the increase in import costs also led to the government having to subsidize the loss of enterprises by the production price limit, and some enterprises also reduced production due to the impact of price restrictions, so that the black market disappeared, and finally the government agreed to increase the price, and the increase in the cost of living also made workers demand higher wages, and in March 1974, at the request of the General Labor Union, the wage adjustment was approved, which shows that the price freeze and wage freeze in the contract have failed. In order to cope with the expansionary policies of the government, these crises could be suppressed by Peron's prestige, but his death completely eliminated the social contract. Against this backdrop, Alfredo Gómez Morales became the new Minister of Economy, and instead of resolving the crisis, he failed to resolve the crisis and reduced the value of the peso by half the following year, while pressure from the trade unions forced the government to agree to wage increases again, and the country fell back into inflation.
Isabel Peron
In June 1975 Celestino Rodrigo became the new Minister of Economy, and Rodrigo adopted a policy of shock therapy. The union rejected the proposal and launched a general strike, which eventually forced Rodrigo to step down after only a little more than a month in office, and Bonani, who succeeded Rodrygo, was ousted for three weeks after trying to circumvent the economic policy of the union system. This discontinuous policy led to no improvement in inflation and the union-backed Antonio Cafiero became the new Minister of Economy, who tried to reconcile the contradictions between the trade unions and the Chamber of Commerce, but the gradual intensification of the political struggle made it impossible to reconcile, during which he also expected to seek a loan from the IMF, but refused the IMF's offer to send an exploratory mission for fear of weakening his reputation among the trade unions against the psychology of the Peronist national economy, so he served for more than five months, but the crisis was not resolved. The weakness of democratic government has led to an even greater conspiracy......
Isabel Perón speaks at the CGT conference on March 10, 1976