Some say this year is the best year of the next decade.
I don't know if the prophecy will come true, but the intuitive feeling that the world gives us is: more and more turbulent! The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than two years, the Palestinian-Israeli war continues, and the Middle East is not peaceful.
Looking around the mainland, North Korea willfully test-fired at every turn, stirring up nerves on the peninsula;
Taiwanese poisoners jump a few times from time to time, which can't change the trend but also makes you sick;
Philippine fishing boats have repeatedly rammed Scarborough Shoal, and the South China Sea is unstable...... Time also, life also.
Living in the same global village, it affects the whole body.
A butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon rainforest can also cause a storm.
Any small event has the potential to profoundly affect our destiny.
The poor international environment has affected our lives.
The first half of China's economy is over
Real estate is down, and all industries are not lifted. Business is not easy to do, entrepreneurial risk is high, employees are laid off at any time, and everyone is in debt...... The world is difficult, and each sighs for a long time. The anxiety is getting worse, but the heart is weak and unable to work hard. The more adversity there is, the more calm you have to be.
The world, like life, cannot always be smooth sailing, and the trend always rises in waves.
We were lying on our stomach, at the bottom of the wave. Just take advantage of this wave of the bottom wave, study, cultivate the mind, fitness, accompany children and parents, and meet the main rising wave with a better attitude. So what's next? Where is the economy headed? What do we do? First, let's look at real estate.
Real estate continues to dominate the lifeblood of China's economy.
Real estate can not fall, the central government's determination to save the market is very clear, and it can be seen from the frequent policies that the central government is indeed anxious. Real estate is the backbone of China's economy and the anchor of social stability. The next housing prices are likely to continue to bottom out, and first- and second-tier cities will take the lead in stabilizing. Driven by the frequent policies of the central government, housing prices will slowly recover and enter the Bronze Age. Future house prices will not skyrocket, nor will they plummet, but will enter a moderately volatile market.
Just like the current pork, automobile, and clothing industries, it no longer has a focus effect. Only by stabilizing the housing market can China's economy have a soft landing and there will be no major problems. Let's take a look at the Internet.
The Internet has been developing for more than 30 years, and with the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the Internet dividend has also peaked. It is becoming more and more difficult for platforms to acquire users, and it is becoming more expensive for merchants to acquire customers. Everyone is competing for each other in the stock pool, which has evolved into a zero-sum game. The rapid development of the Internet has been swept into the dust of history along with the savage growth of real estate. In the future, the competition for users will be more fierce for traffic acquisition. The biggest drawback of Chinese Internet companies is "homogeneous competition".
From taxi to group buying, from takeaway to bringing goods, it is much the same, they all rely on burning money to grab users, become bigger and then monopolize. However, now the "anti-monopoly law" has blocked the dream of such companies to go public. Relying on scale to create a monopoly and then go public to make money, this road has been blocked. China needs big companies like Apple and Tesla with core technology. And giants like Tencent, Huawei, and Alibaba have become infrastructure that affects our lives. It's like hydro communication, you don't feel it, but it's everywhere. But just ten years ago, being able to work at Tencent and Ali was like a god-like existence. Twenty years ago, it was an incomparably honorable to be able to work at China Mobile Unicom. Do you understand?
It's not how powerful the company is, but the dividends of the times.
Follow the dividends of the times, and ordinary people can also counterattack. Now it's the world of live broadcast again.
A Guo Youcai makes the whole people crazy. Under the wealth creation effect, more and more people have begun to follow suit. Next, the metaverse and blockchain technology will appear. In 2022, the first half of China's economy is over. In the first half (1979-2021), the "primitive accumulation of capital" was mainly completed. Including real estate, Internet, manufacturing. In 2022, the second half of China's economy is quietly kicking off.
What is the next development logic of China's economy?
From primitive accumulation to intensive cultivation. Gone are the days of brutal accumulation of the wide net, replaced by management and service to optimize these assets. For example, real estate. Nowadays, almost everyone has a set of real estate, and the house is no longer a scarce product, what is lacking is how to integrate the effective operation of vacant real estate and maximize the value.
For example, on the Internet, almost more than 90% of them are already netizens, and everyone is chatting about WeChat, Douyin, and Alipay.
How to convert users into private domain traffic, service to the extreme, and charge on demand, this is the right way to play. That is, on-demand docking, precise delivery, personalized service, and value closed-loop. The era of savage growth has passed, and the era of intensive cultivation has begun. Therefore, many enterprises and individuals nowadays pay special attention to creating IP and personality.
They rely on personas and strong IPs to deeply bind users, and under the drive of operation, they do value output, emotional management, and knowledge payment, and use new scenarios and models to make users pay willingly.
These are the dividends of the times in the second half of the economy. The first half is responsible for setting up the stage, and the second half is responsible for singing. When the framework of various infrastructure is in place, fine operation becomes inevitable. In the first half, it was courage, resources, and information.
As long as you are brave enough, Mu Zhong can also exchange canned food for airplanes. In the second half, the fight is meticulous, the fight is service, and the fight is IP. This is also the reason why many people lament that it is becoming more and more difficult to make money.
Information is becoming more and more transparent, resources are becoming more and more balanced, and channels are becoming more and more open, and many people who are accustomed to making money by relying on poor information, buying low and selling high, and monopoly, of course, cannot stand this change. In fact, the opportunity to make money has always been there, but it is reserved for people who are good at capturing change, can keep pace with the times, and are better. The second half of China's economy is the era of real personal charm, and the era of real fairness, openness and justice. China's best era has begun.