First, the theme of the big rise: domestic software + electronic invoice
The Audit Commission's disclosure of the annual audit report shows that it has deepened the reform of key areas and improved the relevant institutional mechanisms. We should comprehensively sort out the problems that have repeatedly and frequently occurred in economic operation in recent years, and persist in examining and solving them from the perspective of reform. Plan for a new round of reform of the fiscal and taxation system, improve the division of fiscal powers and expenditure responsibilities between the central and local governments, and increase the intensity of balanced transfer payments.
The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference and the 2024 Government Work Report both clearly put forward a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform. In fact, with the transformation of the real estate supply and demand pattern to a new development model, the lack of revenue from land sales makes it necessary for local governments to systematically plan fiscal and tax balances and long-term debt management mechanisms. On the whole, improving the matching of the financial and administrative powers of the central and local governments is the main consideration for deepening the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and establishing a modern financial system.
In terms of industries, related industries such as taxation and IT, electronic accounting vouchers are expected to usher in innovation, and many stocks rose sharply in the afternoon.
Second, the interpretation of the research report (Zheshang Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, Northeast Securities): the increment brought by taxes, finance, and numbers
(1) Shenwan Hongyuan reviewed the past 40 years of fiscal and taxation system and IT construction process, from the unified revenue and expenditure - fiscal contracting - tax reform + public finance budget reform - expenditure reform, informatization has played an important supporting role, through the golden tax project, the golden finance project, the mainland has also established a set of fiscal and taxation IT system with Chinese characteristics, and the current blueprint of the mainland's modern governance system is still not completed, and the reform of fiscal and taxation informatization will continue to advance.
(1) In terms of demand increment, in terms of taxation, in 2022, the State Administration of Taxation will open the bidding for the fourth phase of the Golden Tax project, with a total of four major projects: the electronic invoice platform, the legal person electronic tax bureau, the application support platform, and the tax human end platform, and the current construction of the State Administration is relatively complete, and it will enter the provincial promotion stage in 2024. According to the incomplete statistics of the government's procurement network, the scale of a single project of the provincial platform is 300-8 million yuan, and the annual market size of the provincial construction period is expected to reach 5-600 million yuan.
In terms of finance, the 2.0 phase starting in April 2023 will continue to incorporate new modules, including asset management, final account reports, etc., to continue to improve the management ability and efficiency of the central government, the number of new modules proposed in the current 2.0 stage is slightly lower than 1.0, according to the 1.0 to promote 3-4 years, it is inferred that the 2.0 stage or 2-3 years to complete the construction of the asset management + final account report module, and the 2.0 stage will also be expanded to the management of social security funds, and the future growth space is expected to be 1.4 billion yuan.
In terms of data, the standardization of accounting data will bring corresponding requirements such as product module upgrades and interface transformations. Whether it is a self-built system or a third-party service platform, the final contractor is still a financial and tax IT vendor that has been deeply engaged in the field of financial informatization for many years.
(3) Northeast Securities also said that electronic accounting vouchers are an important starting point for fiscal and tax reform, improving efficiency and enhancing compliance supervision for budget units and corporate financial management. For budget units, the introduction of electronic accounting documents has greatly improved the efficiency of financial management and the visibility of funds. The electronic operation of the whole process simplifies the reimbursement process, strengthens the real-time monitoring of financial funds through the integration of data resources, improves the level of refinement and standardization of budget management, and effectively prevents capital risks. On the enterprise side, electronic accounting documents promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement of financial management, simplify the reimbursement process, support intelligent decision-making, and help enterprises proactively meet new tax requirements.
Electronic accounting vouchers are concentrated in the budget unit market and scattered in the enterprise market, with a space of nearly 100 billion. In terms of budget units, it is estimated that the annual SaaS service fee for each unit is about 15,000 yuan, and the market space is about 10.5 billion yuan per year. In terms of the enterprise market, the market space for large, medium and small enterprises is estimated to be about 82.6 billion yuan per year
Third, who will be the darling of the market in the new round of fiscal and tax reform?
Feitian Integrity: As a leader in intelligent network identity authentication, its influence in the bank customer base should not be underestimated.
Tax Friends Co., Ltd.: Focus on providing tax management services for tax authorities, and its professional ability is highly recognized in the industry.
Zhongke Jiangnan: It provides financial information software services, and the application of visualization technology enhances the added value of its services.
Digital authentication: As a leader in the domestic electronic authentication industry, its role in ensuring the security of transactions is crucial.
In addition, companies such as Jincai Internet, Boss Software, Jiuqi Software, Yonyou Network and Aerospace Information have also shown strong competitiveness in the fields of digital government, digital enterprise construction, digital ticket solutions, and financial and tax SaaS services.
As a company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Kingdee International's performance in financial and tax SaaS services is also worth looking forward to
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