Text: Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Liu Cheng
Since last year, the raw fish market has continued to decline, and raw fish farmers have almost lost money. Until the second quarter of this year, the market began to warm up, into June, the price of 2 catties of raw fish ponds in many places rose to 9 yuan, the market stock pond old fish selling accelerated, and most farmers achieved capital preservation or turned losses into profits. But what will happen to the follow-up market? How can farmers seize the opportunity to make money from raw fish?
As a leading feed company in the raw fish industry, Zhuhai Hailong (hereinafter referred to as "Hailong") has always adhered to the market demand of refined aquaculture with stable product strength, and created customer-centric differentiated value with professional service. In this issue of "BOSS Tea Talk", Zhong Xujun, general manager of Zhuhai Hailong Marketing, was invited to have a face-to-face exchange and listen to the different insights of the post-80s boss on the industry.
Zhong Xujun, general manager of Zhuhai Hailong Marketing
Raw fish next node or on New Year's Day
Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: What do you think about the follow-up market of raw fish?
Zhong Xujun: Judging from the current data of this fish, at least there is no problem with the overall stability and improvement this year, and it will not be bullish again. Some time ago, I communicated with some friends in the same industry, and we speculated that as of the end of May, the storage pond of raw fish and old fish was estimated to be about 600 million catties. At present, the daily circulation of raw fish is about 3 million catties, which means that it only takes 6-7 months to consume all the old fish, so we infer that the next market node for raw fish to rise will be on New Year's Day. Of course, it is impossible for the market to wait until all the pond fish are sold out before the price starts, and it is expected that the price will be affected 2-3 months before and after the pond fish are cleared.
In previous years, the first batch of raw fish in March and April seedlings has the opportunity to sell fish at the end of the year or around New Year's Day, then this batch of new fish will impact the price of old fish, but due to the sharp reduction of this year's first batch of fish (at least 50% reduction) and the slow pace of seedling, this year's new fish may not have much impact on the price of old fish, if it is really possible to clear the 600 million catties of pond fish around New Year's Day, at this time the first batch of fish is obviously not connected, and the good market of raw fish may continue from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year.
In previous years, the tail batch of farmers is also preempting the middle batch this year
Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: How can farmers seize this price increase node, and what suggestions do you have?
Zhong Xujun: If you want to catch up with the node of New Year's Day, we will suggest that farmers directly release the seedlings now to catch up with the time of the middle batch of fish. The middle batch usually casts seedlings from the beginning of May to the end of June, but because the overall rhythm of this year is late, at this time, the seedlings are directly released, and the high-end materials and winter sheds are built in the later stage, which is hopeful to catch up with the Lunar New Year to sell fish.
Hailong's customers are expected to release batches of seedlings this year may be the same as the previous year, or even slightly increase from the previous year, which is based on everyone's optimism about the follow-up market. Some of the farmers who raised the tail batch of autumn fish in previous years will also seize the position of the middle batch in advance this year, especially in Foshan, there are not so many ponds that can build winter sheds, and the rhythm of time is more important. We have a very high-quality raw fish farmer, in previous years are in July after the release of the water flower tail batch of fish, this year through his own judgment of the market plus the market information provided by Hailong, he also believes that can not wait for the tail batch, now has set 800,000 seedlings to put in the batch, he is more confident in the future.
Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: If the seedlings are released intensively, will the current supply of seedlings be in short supply?
Zhong Xujun: As far as I know, the supply of water splashes in the nursery farms in Guangdong is still relatively sufficient, and they have a very large reserve of parent fish, especially the female fish, this year. Previously, some peers said that last year's seedlings produced about 50-5.5 billion black sesame seeds, and this year it is expected that there will be at least 5.5 billion level of seedlings, and there should be no problem with supply. However, this year, the overall deformity rate of raw fish fry is relatively high, and we suggest that farmers should be cautious in the selection of fry and do a good job in seed quarantine and other measures.
Zhuhai Hailong: Everything starts from the customer
Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: If everyone grabs the batch, will it cause the concentrated fish market to fall?
Zhong Xujun: This is possible, if there are more seedlings in the middle and end of this year, then the market may decline after May next year. Our previous judgment is based on the current data and the overall situation of the industry, but each farmer's situation is different, Hailong will be based on each customer's pond mouth situation, breeding level, anti-risk ability and other factors, "tailor-made" the most suitable breeding model, recommend the best quality product program. I also suggest that farmers should look at the market according to their own situation, produce fish in a timely manner, and do not blindly play high prices.
Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: How does Zhuhai Hailong help farmers get the most value?
Zhong Xujun: At present, raw fish farming has entered the stage of accelerating the reshuffle, and the requirements for the level of fine aquaculture are getting higher and higher. Relying on the resource advantages of the whole industry chain of Haid Group, Zhuhai Hailong provides farmers with high-quality products, technical solutions, circulation resources, financial assistance and other all-round services around the pain points of breeding and the needs of farmers.
To put it simply, it all starts with the customer. For example, based on the combing and analysis of market data, the Hailong team we mentioned earlier provides customers with valuable market information and helps customers make breeding plans in advance. At the same time, Hailong has formed a series of raw fish feed, which can be matched according to the different breeding modes of customers (such as the first batch, the middle batch, the last batch, etc.) and the breeding needs (such as the pursuit of stable breeding or hurry, hurry, etc.). At a time when the industry is full of changes, Hailong will continue to upgrade its service and product strength, so that the service will be more focused on breeding, so that the products will be closer to customer needs, and create maximum value for customers.
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