In the first half of 2024, the e-bike market ushered in a new situation. Mavericks, No. 9, and Polar Core, new power brands with technology and experience as the core, took the lead in launching a number of new products.
Among them, Mavericks launched a truly upgraded version of N1NXT, Polar Core released an electric motorcycle, an AE4i on the same platform, and Nine also announced the news of the upcoming release of the second generation of mechanics on the official Weibo.
At present, the new generation of new national standard high-end electric bicycles will generally use a larger capacity battery than before, achieve an actual range of more than 100km, and provide a better intelligent experience, many of which are from the new energy vehicle, motorcycle industry technology decentralization.
Titanium Media APP believes that after several years of exploration after the release of the new national standard in 2019, the electric bicycle industry has reached a new stage. Thanks to the technology spillover of lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and motorcycle industries, electric bicycles have begun to upgrade from the product level.
Image source: Nine's official website
Flat replacement motorcycle, battery life, frame comprehensive leapfrogging
For electric bicycles, battery life has always been the "top priority", and in various surveys on electric bicycles, consumers are very concerned about how far electric bicycles can go, which is also the most important factor affecting their car selection. After entering 2024, there are concerns about the range anxiety of electric bicycles that are being solved with the naked eye.
For example, the aforementioned polar core AE4i Pro version uses a 48V30Ah battery, and the official nominal range is 95km; Although the price of Maverick NXT is as high as 12,000 yuan, the master version is equipped with a 48V56Ah super large battery, which can achieve an ultra-long-distance endurance of 170KM in long endurance mode, which can be called "you get what you pay for".
Zhao Lei, who has worked in the electric bicycle industry for many years, told Titanium Media APP that there are several conditions that need to be met for this kind of "10,000 yuan electricity", first of all, the price of lithium batteries should be low enough, so that manufacturers can have enough profit margins.
Secondly, the high-end demand of consumers is activated, generally if consumers are buying the new national standard electric bicycle for the first time, it is difficult to choose thousands or even tens of thousands of products, the choice of such products is more "electric from the old players" or motorcycle friends as a choice for daily commuting.
For now, it seems that 2024 may be the beginning of the above two conditions being met.
According to the data disclosed by the ICC, the price of lithium battery cells in mainland power has continued to decline since 2023. The price of square power cells (lithium iron phosphate) fell from 0.82 yuan/Wh in January 2023 to 0.43 yuan/Wh in December 2023, a decrease of more than 47%; The price of square power cells (ternary) fell from 0.92 yuan/Wh in January 2023 to 0.52 yuan/Wh in December 2023, a decrease of more than 43%.
According to Li Yan, CEO of Mavericks, the cost of batteries accounts for about 40% of a two-wheeled electric vehicle, and the rise in the price of lithium batteries will bring great pressure to two-wheeled electric vehicles. Nowadays, the price of lithium batteries continues to fall, and manufacturers will naturally have more space to polish their products.
On the other hand, the demand for high-end e-bikes is converging from multiple aspects. It has been 6 years since the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in 2019, and it is generally believed that the replacement cycle of electric bicycles is about 5 years, which means that the earliest wave of new national standard electric bicycle owners may have or are thinking about updating their electric bicycles at home.
Zhao Lei told Titanium Media APP that for the electric bicycle industry from 2019 to 2020, "crossing the river by feeling the stones" is a common phenomenon in the industry. In a market environment where the average price of a product is 2,000 yuan, how to face the high battery price and the uncertain impact of the epidemic at the same time, and make a good product that meets the 55kg weight limit of the new national standard is a difficult question for various manufacturers.
Image source: Mavericks official website
However, with the passage of time, manufacturers have become more mature in the use of lightweight and high-strength body materials, and there is more room to play under the body weight requirements of the new national standard of 55kg. For example, the Maverick NXT uses a "double-arm fence bracket", and the polar core AE4i also uses a "double-shoulder fence bracket", and the common idea is to optimize the stress structure to achieve a motorcycle-like riding experience while ensuring the strength of the body.
The product manager of No. 9 Electric is responsible for the research and development of mechanic-related products told Titanium Media APP that compared with the traditional "battery car", today's No. 9 focuses on high-end positioning, the price is high and the natural high-end price, corresponding to the requirements of high quality and reliability, the test standard of the body is benchmarked against the traditional head motorcycle, the national standard of the strength fatigue test of the traditional battery car is 100,000 times, and the electric bicycle of No. 9 will do 1 million times to have the confidence to support the lifetime warranty of the No. 9 frame.
After using a higher-spec frame, the new generation of high-end e-bikes can show better body rigidity. For example, when cornering, braking sharply, pressing corners, and passing speed bumps, there will be a better riding experience, that is, motorcycle enthusiasts often say that the car is very "neat" (meaning that the body has a better sense of unity and is not loose).
Today, some consumers of the new generation of No. 9 high-end electric bicycles are themselves motorcycle users, and they have their own pursuits for safety and control. Therefore, the new generation of products is not only more expensive on the surface, but also the embodiment of different product ideas, rather than simply piling up materials.
On the user side, for the second electric bicycle at home, today's consumer demand has also changed a bit. Zheng Jie, an electric bicycle consumer in Beijing, told Titanium Media APP that he now has an electric bicycle purchased in 2020 at home and is preparing to replace it with a brand new electric bicycle.
"The previous car APP car was very easy to use, but the frame was too soft, and the speed bumps were like driving a boat. In addition, the battery of the original car has been worn out a lot in the past few years, and it can only run more than 30 kilometers on a full charge, compared with those new products with a range of more than 80 kilometers, which has doubled the improvement, which is very attractive. ”
In addition, Zheng Jie told Titanium Media APP that for a city like Beijing, where motorcycles are banned, high-end electric bicycles have a great attraction. "Owning a Beijing A motorcycle license plate can drive on the roads within the Fourth Ring Road casually, but the number is limited, and the market price is 30-400,000 yuan. In contrast, high-end electric bicycles are only more than 10,000 yuan at most, and they also have ABS, adjustable shock absorption and other configurations that motorcycle friends value, which can be said to be a kind of Beijing A flat replacement. ”
In fact, after 2024, the hot motorcycle market during the epidemic has indeed undergone some changes.
According to the data of the Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, from January to May 2024, Chinese motorcycle companies sold a total of 6.7359 million motorcycles, a year-on-year decrease of 6.05%, of which 3.71 million straddle bikes, a year-on-year increase of 19.47%; 2,355,100 scooters, down 31.20% year-on-year. Sales of pedal models have fallen by 31.2% year-on-year, which is already down by one-third.
There must be reasons for the economic environment, but there should also be some consumers who choose high-end electric self-transportation as a substitute for scooters because they do not need a driver's license, no annual inspection, and no mandatory scrapping years.
Intelligent acceleration to understand that users bring consumption upgrades
In addition to the improvement of driving, the intelligent upgrade of electric bicycles will also quietly accelerate in 2024. At present, including Maverick and Nine, millimeter-wave radar is provided as the standard configuration of new high-end models.
Millimeter wave is a kind of electromagnetic wave, by emitting and receiving the reflected signal, millimeter wave radar can obtain information such as the relative distance, velocity, direction, and direction of motion between itself and the object, and then make feedback through information processing.
Previously, millimeter-wave radar has been used in the automotive field, military field, aviation field and agriculture and other fields, and the most well-known is currently applied to intelligent driving.
Image source: Polar Core official website
Nowadays, with the popularization of the millimeter-wave radar industry, the market size has reached the level of 10 billion, and it will naturally spill over to the surrounding industries, and the two-wheeled industry is the first to eat the dividends.
Taking the polar core AE4 as an example, through millimeter-wave radar technology, the product realizes BSD blind spot monitoring and RCW rear collision warning system. Users do not need to look back or be distracted, and can remind the owner of the fast approach of oncoming vehicles behind the car through the flashing lights on the screen, so as to improve the safety of driving.
In addition to millimeter-wave radar, ABS is also a new technology that has been devolved from the upstream motorcycle industry to the e-bike industry. ABS stands for Anti-Lock Braking System. The main function is to prevent the wheels from locking during braking, and to avoid the wheels from sliding and flicking. Compared with cars and motorcycles, drivers of electric bicycles often do not know much about braking safety, so it is more necessary to use anti-lock braking systems.
The product manager of No. 9 Electric in charge of the research and development of related products of the mechanic told the titanium media APP that the products of No. 9 using ABS will not be limited to high-end models in the future, because No. 9's ABS is independent research and development, and more scale effects will be reflected in the later stage, which will help more applications in affordable electric bicycles, realize scientific and technological equality, and improve the safety of No. 9 users in driving.
In other aspects, the progress of electric bicycles in intelligent perception is the most obvious, such as the common keyless start on the car is currently popular, and the functions similar to side support induction and seat induction are also gradually popularized, which has obvious effects on the user's experience. Functions such as kinetic energy recovery and cruise control, which are standard in new energy vehicles, have increasingly become the basic functions of electric bicycles.
The product manager of No. 9 Electric in charge of the research and development of mechanic-related products told Titanium Media APP that compared with when the new national standard was just implemented, today's electric bicycle products have some differences in thinking: as manufacturers better understand the needs of users, they will gradually strengthen existing products in terms of user experience, practicality, and control. From the original low quality and low price to today's consumption upgrading, we will jointly promote the positive development of the industry and provide users with more safe, easy-to-use and reliable products.
Previously, Li Yan, the founder of Maverick Electric, said at the media communication conference that after the price of the battery dropped, Maverick would not choose to reduce the price, but would give users more at the same price. Nowadays, it seems that more and more e-bike manufacturers have adopted a similar strategy, attracting more users and improving the competitiveness of the entire industry by constantly innovating and optimizing their products. In the context of declining battery prices, riding the wave of the first wave of updates of the new national standard electricity, the electric bicycle industry is expected to usher in a new situation.
The same is true from the perspective of financial data, the ninth company, which will have a smooth sail in 2023, will have a revenue of 2.562 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54.18%. Among them, the electric two-wheeler business continued the high growth trend of last year, with sales revenue of 1.19 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of 119%, and a single-quarter sales volume of 416,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 126%.
And the Mavericks, who were at a low point in 2023, also rebounded in the first quarter of 2024. The revenue in the first quarter was 504.7 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. Among them, the sales volume of electric scooters was 129139, a year-on-year increase of 36.8%. Maverick Electric expects revenue in the second quarter of 2024 to reach 912 million yuan to 995 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10% to 20%.
In terms of policy, on April 12, 2024, 14 departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Trade-in of Consumer Goods" to promote the trade-in of electric bicycles. The "Action Plan" proposes that with reference to the relevant practices of trade-in of automobiles and home appliances, relevant departments should study and promote the trade-in of electric bicycles to effectively prevent and control the safety risks of old electric bicycles. Local governments have responded positively to the Action Plan, and Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai have clearly pointed out that they will promote the replacement of electric bicycles, and other provinces will follow suit.
Tianfeng Securities believes that there is still room for electric two-wheeler product upgrades, and ASP is accompanied by performance upgrades. With more innovative features added, electric two-wheelers may become more comfortable and better to ride. With the improvement of product power and the expansion of electric two-wheeler consumer groups, some four-wheeler users may also buy electric two-wheelers as a supplementary means of transportation. (This article was first published on Titanium Media APP, author|Wu Honglei, editor|Zhong Yi, Zhao Lei and Zheng Jie are pseudonyms in the article)