In the past two days, the subtropical high has strengthened significantly in the western section, and as a result, new changes have taken place in the plum rain belt on the mainland: not only the plum rain in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is really endless, but the position of the plum rain belt has moved significantly northward compared with the previous two days, and Chongqing and southwestern Hubei have also been included in the scope of heavy rain.
1. Heavy rains and heavy rains are aimed at the extremely arid areas
However, this is only a prelude to a dramatic change in the weather: supercomputer forecasts indicate that an atmospheric cyclone is formed as the cold and warm air currents over central China collide violently. This atmospheric whirlwind, like an angry giant, carrying a huge amount of rain, is approaching us step by step. In Chongqing and southern Sichuan, the rain has begun to intensify, and the rainstorm belt will be in full swing along the Yangtze River.
According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, from the 28th to the 29th, northern Hunan, Jianghan, southern Henan, northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu and other places will be covered by heavy rainfall, the largest range this year. As the eastern section of the rain belt lifts northward, a wide range of heavy rain and heavy rain will advance to central and southern Henan, northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu and other places.
The formation of this atmospheric cyclone is actually the formation of an extratropical cyclone. An extratropical cyclone, as the name suggests, is a cyclonic phenomenon that occurs in temperate regions. They are usually accompanied by low pressure systems, bringing intense storms and precipitation. The impact of this extratropical cyclone will cause swirling winds of magnitude 8 to 10 with gusts of 9 to 11 in the central and southern Yellow Sea and parts of the northern East China Sea.
Second, the rainy season "typhoon" is about to start!
At present, there are large areas of severe drought to extreme drought in the south of the Great Wall of the mainland, especially in central China and the Huanghuai region, and the meteorological drought in many places is extremely serious, and this time it will usher in a "big test". Since 2024, although the rains have alleviated some of the meteorological droughts, in fact, the drought situation in the central and eastern parts of the continent is still very severe. The arrival of this torrential rain is like a "rain" in a dry land, bringing a glimmer of hope to local crops. However, this sudden heavy rain may also pose a risk of flooding.
June is the rainy season in the southern part of the continent. This year's rainy season is particularly special compared to previous years, on the one hand, the rainy season is very typical, the scope is relatively concentrated and stable, and on the other hand, the rainy season will swing northward, and the collision of cold and warm air masses will form the "rainy typhoon", that is, an extratropical cyclone that brings strong winds and heavy rain.
The precipitation process covers northern Hunan, Jianghan, southern Henan, northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu and other places, and the scope is the largest this year. The rainfall is heavy, and there may be fierce rainstorms close to the level of extremely heavy rainstorms locally, so it is necessary to strengthen precautions. In addition, due to the influence of extratropical cyclones, in addition to strong winds at sea, winds on land will gradually increase, and some areas will indeed have a typhoon-like visual sense of strong winds and heavy rain.
In general, the most important weather process on the mainland at the end of the month is the extratropical cyclone system induced by the collision of cold and warm over central China. This atmospheric cyclone brought heavy precipitation and windy weather, which had an important impact on the extremely arid areas and coastal areas of the mainland. At present, with the gradual eastward movement of the atmospheric cyclone, the precipitation in Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places will gradually increase, and it is necessary to pay attention to the prevention of short-term heavy precipitation and strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
This weather process reminds us once again that the power of nature cannot be ignored. In the face of climate change and extreme weather, everyone needs to enhance their awareness of prevention and improve their response capabilities in order to better protect themselves and their homes. I hope that everyone can spend this "water war" safely and usher in a sunny future.