Recently, judging from the import data given by China Customs, the volume of imported bulk liquor (hereinafter referred to as loose liquor) of 10L and above in May fell sharply year-on-year, with a decline of 47.52% and 69.79% respectively.
Specifically, in the context of the sharp decline in volume, Australia's imported loose wine has increased by more than 10 times year-on-year for two consecutive months. As a large proportion of the import value of the same period last year, the imported loose wine from Spain, which accounted for more than 20% of the import value, was directly "cleared" in May this year. Under the trade-off, what changes have been presented in imported loose wine this year?
01
Behind the halving of the volume: the average import price of loose wine continues to fall
On the whole, against the backdrop of a sharp decline in May, the import volume of loose wine still recorded an increase of 4.19% in the first five months of this year. However, at the same time, the import value showed a double-digit decline of 18.26%, which also made the overall average import price drop to 0.71 US dollars / liter, a year-on-year decline of 21.54%.
Judging from the trend of the average import price for five consecutive months this year, it has fallen from 0.84 US dollars / liter at the beginning of the year to 0.51 US dollars / liter in May, which is very obvious.
Liu Xuesong, head of Qingdao Houcang International Supply Chain Co., Ltd., told WBO: "Since the beginning of this year, the price of bulk wine in the whole world has declined significantly, mainly because of the weak global economy and consumption environment. ”
In terms of import data, the average price of loose wine in several major source countries in the first five months of this year has declined significantly, and only France and South Africa have increased to a certain extent. Among them, Chile, the largest source country, fell by 24.16%, with an average import price of US$0.64/liter; Spain, Australia and Italy, which have relatively high average import prices, also fell by 43.17%, 25.54% and 32.42% respectively.
Qi Jin, head of the international business department of Gaosheng Liquor Group, also said: "On the whole, the global price of loose wine has indeed dropped significantly this year, and the average price of loose wine in almost all major producing countries in the world has fallen to a new low. ”
According to the data given by Ciatti, a well-known international grape and original wine agency, the global loose wine prices in June are at the lowest level in the past five years. For example, the average price of Australian raw wine has dropped from US$0.86/liter in 2020 to US$0.57/liter today, which is in the same gear as Spain and South Africa; Italy and Chile have also fallen from their 2022 highs, with average prices of $1.12/liter and $0.76/liter, respectively.
02
Australian loose wine has made a strong return, and the pattern of imported loose wine has ushered in changes
On the other hand, with the official return of Australian wine to the Chinese market at the end of March, there has also been a very significant increase in its loose wines.
Since January this year, although the Chinese government has not officially canceled the "double reversal" of Australian wine, domestic wine importers have begun to prepare in advance. From January to May, Australia's bulk wine imports increased by 279.54%, 80.00%, 774.19%, 1495.00% and 1097.50% year-on-year respectively, and the import value also increased by 281.28%, 176.25%, 245.80%, 2105.58% and 799.90% year-on-year respectively.
Overall, the overall volume of Australian loose wine in the first five months increased by 576.45% and 403.67% year-on-year respectively, from the data point of view, although it has not reached the peak level in 2020, it has exceeded the level of the same period in 2021, when the "double anti" measures for Australian wine began to be officially implemented at the end of March of that year.
At the same time, the other two major source countries, Spain and South Africa, saw a "cliff-like" decline in their loose wine imports in the first five months of this year. Among them, the volume of Spanish loose wine, which originally accounted for nearly 10%, fell by 89.63% and 94.11% respectively in the first five months of this year; South Africa's loose liquor, which accounted for more than 5% of the total, also fell by 94.45% and 93.84% respectively. Under the trade-off, the proportion of Australia's bulk wine imports has increased to 12.35% this year, almost replacing the market share of the two.
At the same time, as the price of Australian raw liquor has further dropped to the price range of raw liquor that has traditionally won at low prices such as Spain and South Africa, its market advantage has been further obvious. From the perspective of taste, quality, cost performance, and consumer adaptability, Australian original liquor may be more in line with the favor of the Chinese market and importers, and the overall pattern of imported bulk liquor will also usher in more obvious changes.
Qi Jin told the WBO that Gaosheng Liquor, as the head importer of domestic raw liquor, almost stopped importing loose wine orders from other source countries this year, and only retained a little Chilean loose wine, and almost all other import shares were given to Australian loose wine.
This phenomenon is also very evident among bulk wine importers.
An importer of loose liquor in Shandong said: "Because of the prediction in advance that Australian wine will be liberalized, the import plan of other countries was suspended at the beginning of this year, and I have been waiting for the first two months, without rushing to place an order, just waiting for the official landing." After that, in April, I saw a lot of wine merchants going to Australia to negotiate orders. ”
Qi Jin said: "For example, Chilean bulk wine companies have made a round of preparations for the return of Australian wine, and at the end of last year, they conducted a round of low-price clearance in order to clean up the inventory of old wine. And after the clean-up was completed at the beginning of this year, the price was raised again. This has also led some bulk wine importers to choose the more cost-effective Australian loose wine this year when comparing Australia and Chile. If we look at the data at the end of the year, this trend may be even more pronounced. ”
At its peak, in 2020, Australia and Chile accounted for nearly 40% of the total value of loose wine imports in the same period.
At present, the imported bulk wine market still has a wide range of market fundamentals, especially the low-price channels dominated by e-commerce, and a large number of bulk wine filling products are settled in sales, and this market still has an obvious acceptance of bulk wine. For Spain and South Africa, at the moment when Australian wine is fully returning, its original low price advantage is also ushering in a deeper market impact in the context of the price reduction of Australian bulk wine.
As for why, in the period when the growth rate of Australian wine is so obvious, the overall import of loose wine in May still showed a significant decline? An industry insider believes that at present, bulk wine is in the period of conversion of import sources, and May may be in the gap period of conversion, and some replacement orders have not yet had time to declare and clear customs, so that part of the data has not been fully presented, so it has led to obvious import disconnection.
Liu Xuesong also believes: "From the perspective of the entire alcohol consumption environment, the trend of imported loose wine is still unclear. The decline in May seems to be a single-month decline, but in fact, there are macro factors that have not changed the overall consumption trend. At present, alcohol consumption has also entered the off-season, and many importers will also wait and see, and they will be conservative in terms of stocking. ”