Have you noticed that the topic of the housing market has been hot recently, especially around Huang Qifan's prediction? He is not an ordinary analyst, and every time he speaks, he is very material, especially his views on the deleveraging of real estate companies and the trend of the housing market, which is simply unpredictable! Let's find out and see how powerful Mr. Huang is.
Having said that, Huang Qifan is not a simple character, his background is not ordinary, he is an official from a scholar's background. This background gave him a different perspective, after all, looking at problems is not only based on experience, but also supported by data. I remember that a year before Evergrande's thunderstorm, that is, around 2022, the housing market was still very hot at that time. But Mr. Huang did not follow the crowd to coax, but warned early, saying that the debt ratio of real estate companies in the mainland exceeded 80%, much higher than that of Hong Kong and some developed regions in Europe and the United States, and this situation was very abnormal in his opinion.
He clearly cautioned at the time that this highly leveraged situation was unsustainable and that there would definitely be adjustments in the future. Sure enough, it didn't take long for the country to begin to implement the deleveraging policy for real estate enterprises, and the famous "three red lines" policy was introduced. As soon as this policy came out, it can be said that it has completely changed the living environment of real estate enterprises. Those real estate companies that listened to Mr. Huang's words and adjusted their strategies in time may still be able to take a breath; Those who are still making great progress may face even more serious challenges.
You think, Mr. Huang's foresight analysis is indeed based on his profound knowledge and sensitive grasp of policy trends. An analysis like his is not a simple guess, but a comprehensive judgment with data, theory, and foresight. In 2023, Mr. Huang was asked in public about housing prices again. His answer at that time was also very in-depth, not directly predicting whether housing prices would fall to the lowest point, but analyzing the supply and demand relationship and policy guidance of the entire real estate market.
He mentioned that from the sales area in 2021, it has been declining, from 1.8 billion square meters to 1.5 billion square meters, and is expected to stabilize at about 1.2 billion square meters. The logic behind this figure is that the existing housing area in the country is more than 50 billion square meters, and according to 50 years of depreciation, there is about 1 billion square meters of renewal demand every year. Combined with other factors, the annual market demand should be about 1.2 billion square meters.
This data-driven analysis is both clear and convincing. Mr. Huang's analysis method not only gives the market a reference, but also points out a clear path for those real estate practitioners. His words are not only predictions, but also a kind of guidance and advice for the future market.
But you know, there's always a lot of voice in the market, and some people probably just like to go against the grain and not listen to this kind of warning. Market fluctuations are always accompanied by various voices and predictions, and some people may be optimistic about the market and think that housing prices will rise, and they may continue to expand with high leverage and continue to acquire land. Others may be more cautious, investing less and reducing debt, and the difference in decision-making is likely to be two very different futures.
Mr. Huang's prediction actually planted a seed for the market to think: should it continue to expand, or start to shrink and adjust its strategy? This kind of strategic choice has a great impact on the future of every real estate company and even the entire market.
Mr. Huang's views and analysis are not only an interpretation of the current situation, but also an early warning and guidance for the future. His words are of great importance that cannot be ignored, especially for real estate companies that stand at a crossroads.