A-shares have bottomed out and stabilized and rebounded soon? What are the main lines of investment? Here comes the top 10 brokerage strategies

Finance Associated Press

2024-06-30 20:51The official account of Cailianpress, a subsidiary of Shanghai Media Group

Finance Associated Press, June 30 (edited by Xuanlin) The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages have been released, as follows:

Guotai Junan: Blue chips are the front, technology is the first

The stock market bottomed out and stabilized, and the layout rebounded in July. Approaching the interim reporting period, the impact of performance growth on stock prices will increase significantly (the rise and fall of A-shares in July is highly correlated with performance). It is expected that the relatively dominant sectors in the report are: 1) technology hardware that benefits from industrial trends or cycle recovery: optical modules/consumer electronics/semiconductors/panels/computer equipment, etc.; 2) Resources with significant price increases: such as precious metals/industrial metals/shipping/fluorine chemicals, etc.; 3) Export of midstream manufacturing that continues to boom: such as ships/home appliances/tires/two-wheeled vehicles/hand tools/rail transit equipment, etc.

Considering that the market uncertainty has decreased, but the willingness of micro entities to take risks is low, the investment focus is on blue chips with products, orders, performance, and reasonable valuations. The market fully values macro risks, the stock market has bottomed out, and the investment perspective should be changed to the direction of layout rebound and greater stock price elasticity: 1) Focusing on the acceleration of the comprehensive deepening reform of Chinese-style modernization, the establishment of the third phase of the large fund, the increase in support for scientific and technological innovation mergers and acquisitions, and the stabilization and improvement of capital expenditure in the technology sector, recommended: electronics/military industry/communications/machinery/new materials; 2) AI+ equipment is expected to promote a new round of terminal update demand and create new consumption scenarios, while OpenAI terminates the provision of API services to Chinese manufacturers, which may mean that AI demand, innovation and domestic substitution are expected to resonate. 3) Pay attention to cash flow and stable operation, and the economic expectation is supported: operators/power/Hong Kong stock high dividend companies, etc.

Minsheng Securities: Physical Revaluation Preparing to Shift from Defense to Offense

In the past two months of marginal weakening of economic activity, the physical consumption sector remained resilient, and resilient power and energy have become the ballast stone of the market. Recommended: 1. Revaluation of the capacity value of upstream resource stocks: oil, copper, aluminum, coal and gold; 2. Focusing on manufacturing activities, the layout of a new pattern of global trade: shipping (dry bulk, oil transportation, container transportation, shipbuilding), power grid equipment; 3. Dividend assets: Physical consumption is the core of resilience, taking into account the absolute low valuations: electricity, water, gas and banks.

CITIC Securities: Three major signals to be clear, the market inflection point will appear

At present, the market has basically completed the adjustment caused by the expected revision, and the trend of survival of the fittest in the market continues. Looking forward to the third quarter, policy signals, price signals and external signals are expected to be clear, market liquidity is expected to improve significantly after the Third Plenary Session, investors gradually shift from the PEG framework to the free cash flow framework, funds to the industry leaders gathered, the third quarter in the three major signals clear, the market inflection point will appear.

At present, it is still recommended to continue to hold low-volatility assets with dividends, continue to pay attention to hydropower, nuclear power with stable free cash returns, and property insurance with stable premium growth. As the market inflection point in the third quarter is expected to be clear, the allocation focus will shift to high-performance growth, among which the high-performance growth sector represented by the CSI 300 has cost performance, and its ability to continue to create free cash flow and improve shareholder returns will also bring long-term investment value, focusing on banks (asset quality is expected to improve to open up revaluation space), machinery (equipment modernization and overseas competition), home appliances (stable competitive landscape, overseas business expansion and real estate labeling), electronics (consumer electronics, AI innovation, semiconductors are independent and controllable), anti-corruption affects the pharmaceutical industry (industrial integration, overseas breakthrough) after full pricing, and the Internet and consumer leaders of Hong Kong stocks.

Bank of China Securities: Dividends highlight the characteristics of "ballast stone".

At the end of the first half of the year, A-shares had significant advantages in dividend assets and continued to strengthen their dominant style. In the short-term market risk appetite reduction stage, the dividend strategy continues to play the role of absolute return ballast. The factors that broke the market deadlock in the second half of the year came from the substantial repair of real demand or the further release of policies beyond expectations.

This week, the regulator expressed his stance to "consolidate the foundation and cultivate the yuan", encouraging patient capital, and the expectation of short-term strong stimulus may be difficult to achieve. In May, the profits of industrial enterprises rebounded, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate and the year-on-year growth rate of the month both fell from the previous value. Structurally, revenue growth rebounded by 0.3 percentage points, cost increased by 0.2 percentage points, and profit growth fell by 0.9 percentage points. In terms of industry structure, the petrochemical, nonferrous metals and other industries have continued the upward trend at the bottom since the beginning of the year, and the growth rate of the computer and electronic equipment industry has declined, but the overall level is still at a high level. The key to domestic demand in the second half of the year is the stabilization and recovery of real estate data and the fiscal force, until then the market needs to wait patiently.

Zhongtai Securities: The next month is an important long "window" in the second half of this year

In terms of fundamentals, the next month is an important long "window" in the second half of the year. In the context of the Politburo meeting at the end of April, which clearly required the policy to "move forward", monetary policies such as interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, large industrial funds, brokerage integration, and "strong reform expectations" before the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee may be more intensive. In terms of risks, the financial regulatory risks during the window period of the Third Plenum may be limited. Geographically, with the German Vice Chancellor's visit to China in the coming month, China and the EU are in a "risk window" of consultations, and short-term risks may have been fully released. In terms of market capital behavior, domestic long-term funds and industrial capital are the most important sources of incremental funds for A-shares, and they are also important factors in determining the relative performance of short-term market sectors. From the perspective of the recent buying direction of the above-mentioned funds, the key directions of capital operation such as mergers and acquisitions and restructuring (science and technology innovation board enterprises), etc., dividend + technology are the most important directions in the future.

At this point in time, it is recommended that investors can focus on the technology stock layout opportunities related to improved liquidity and risk appetite. In terms of the segmentation of technology stocks, you can pay attention to: core military industry, semiconductor equipment and AI hardware-related consumer electronics. Semiconductor equipment: Under the further strengthening of scientific and technological restrictions in the United States and other countries, industrial policies before and after the Third Plenum may further make significant efforts. AI PC and mobile phone hardware: Recently, after the release of a series of blockbuster products such as GPT-4o real-time interaction, Microsoft AI+PC, and Apple M4 chips, the new AI ecology that can directly run locally on PCs and mobile phones has been opened, which may bring a new round of consumer electronics replacement boom.

Haitong Securities: The improvement of three major factors in the second half of the year is expected to promote the rise of the market center

As far as the current round of market is concerned, the money-making effect of the market structure has been differentiated since April, and the trend of various indices has gradually turned to a resting after mid-May. The recent cooling of market sentiment is also relatively obvious, which shows that the current market has entered the stage of accumulation of fundamental verification. With the positive changes in risk appetite, capital and fundamentals, the three major factors affecting the market in the second half of the year, A-shares are expected to come out of the rest and the market center may go to the next level. On the sentiment side, the Third Plenum in mid-July is expected to be a catalyst for sentiment and promote the market's risk appetite. From a fundamental point of view, the fundamental inflection point is expected to be confirmed under the promotion of policies; In terms of capital, in the context of overseas interest rate cuts, the improvement of economic expectations and the recovery of corporate earnings are expected to attract long-term capital to return to the A-share market. Under the many positive changes, the center of the A-share index in the second half of the year is expected to rise compared with the first half of the year.

With the gradual improvement of fundamentals and capital in the second half of the year, the white horse sector with low valuation, low allocation and greater performance elasticity may prevail. China's advantageous manufacturing sector with increasing advantages and high performance certainty is expected to become the main line in the medium and long term, and the mid-to-high-end manufacturing with export competitive advantages and the scientific and technological manufacturing leading the development of new quality productivity are worthy of attention.

Cinda Securities: There is a possibility that the economy and earnings will improve after July

There is a possibility that the economy and earnings will improve after July. (1) In Q2 of each year, there will be a seasonal decline in economic expectations. The Citi China Economic Surprise Index has weakened since late April, much like the time of the previous years, and the strength of the weakening is not very strong now. Seasonally, it is easier to stabilize in July. (2) Indicators such as copper, PPI, manufacturing inventories, global PMI, and exports have been improving, but because investors are habitually paying more attention to the more effective indicators (real estate) in the past decade, economic expectations have not rebounded significantly, and the bond market and exchange rate market are still weak. A similar situation occurred in the first half of 2016, when the data of black commodities such as rebar and real estate investment improved significantly, and the manufacturing and export data were still weak, but because more than ten years before 2016, the impact of manufacturing and exports on the economy was more important than that of real estate, so many investors felt that manufacturing and exports did not improve, and the economic cycle was difficult to start, until more data improved in Q3 and Q4, investors believed that the macro economy had improved.

Annual recommended allocation order: upstream cycle> overseas (automobile, auto parts, home appliances>), financial real estate> AI, medicine & semiconductors &> new energy consumption, the top of the ranking may be the strongest main line of the future bull market.

China Securities Construction Investment: Not sad or anxious, waiting for the opportunity to come

Combined with high-frequency prosperity combing, looking forward to the third quarter, the growth sectors of the independent business cycle are still upward, including consumer electronics, storage, power grid power equipment, construction machinery, nuclear power, etc., and the recent market has paid special attention to the electronics industry chain. With the implementation of Apple's AI layout, the consumer electronics innovation cycle and the recovery cycle of the global semiconductor industry are worth looking forward to. At the same time, the Chinese prefix, fiscal and tax reform, IT, etc. are also expected to usher in the theme market catalyzed by the policy expectations of the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee in the short term.

In addition, the bonus calendar effect will gradually diminish in July. Judging from the performance of the average weekly excess return of CSI dividend constituents in the four weeks before and after the dividend date (relative to Wind All A) in 2029-2023, the excess return of dividend stocks in the week after the dividend date is generally negative, but from the second week, the impact of dividend events on the stock price will begin to weaken. As of this Friday, nearly 70% of the CSI dividend constituents have intensively disclosed the dividend implementation plan, and the impact of the transaction level on the overall style is expected to gradually weaken in July. Considering that the pressure of weak economic fundamentals still exists in the third quarter, dividend stocks with stable performance and high-quality asset quality are still the focus of the bottom position allocation, and the industry focuses on power, highway/railway, oil exploration, thermal coal, state-owned banks, etc.

Industrial Securities: The market and leading style are the beta of the times

Since the beginning of the year, the world, including A-shares, has been dominated by the market and the leading style. Behind this, on the one hand, under the global chaos, high-probability investment has become a consensus. On the other hand, the fundamental advantages of leading enterprises continue to expand. In addition, in terms of funds, the main force of increment is dominated by large-cap index passive funds and insurance funds, which also further strengthens the leading style of the market. From a profitability perspective, the current economic bottom has gradually become clear, but the path of economic recovery may be more modest, rather than a "V" reversal. In this context, the large-cap leader, as a benchmark with competitive advantages in various industries, may continue to generate excess returns in the coming stage. From the perspective of capital, the reshaping of the united front of the market leader and core assets has just begun. In the current capital market environment, on the one hand, ETFs and insurance funds have become an important source of incremental funds in the market, and on the other hand, the speculation of small-cap stocks and "shell value" has been suppressed, jointly promoting the market to focus on the large-cap leader, and high-win investment is gradually becoming the consensus of all funds in the market. Therefore, with the moderate recovery of the economy and the prominence of the leading profit advantage, with the blessing of the high-probability investment concept and the united front, the large-cap leading style will still be an important source of excess returns in this year's chaotic market.

Guosheng Securities: Stable growth, stable real estate, and stable demand urgently need to be strengthened by policies

From a fundamental point of view, recent high-frequency data showed that the economy continued to be low in June, pointing to the economy in the second quarter will be weaker than expected, and the GDP growth rate may be about 5%. In terms of structure, the recent high-frequency data of real estate sales has improved, which may be the gradual emergence of the effect of policy relaxation in the early stage, and the follow-up still needs to pay attention to the sustainability and magnitude of the rebound, in addition to the need to pay close attention to export changes.

In terms of policy, the current downward pressure on the economy still exists, and it is urgent to stabilize growth, stabilize real estate, and stabilize demand, and focus on two important meetings in July in the short term: first, the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, which will be held on July 15-18, focusing on the progress of reform; The second is the mid-year Politburo meeting, which will be held at the end of July as usual, and pay attention to the recent National Standing Committee and the relevant statements of various ministries and commissions.

(Finance Associated Press, Xuanlin)

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