Codonopsis: Affected by continuous drought and lower yields, coupled with investment participation, the market has risen rapidly. But it also stimulated the recovery of production, and the market entered a correction period. This year's inventory is also the lowest year, especially the lack of pharmaceutical goods, resulting in high prices, and it is difficult to fall in the short term.
Muxiang: This round of price increases is due to the low price for many years, and the origin is dug more or less; Second, the continuous drought, resulting in a reduction in production, and the bull market is driven by the general rise, and the capital boosts the cause, the market of the variety will still be at a high level in the short term.
Atractylodes: First, the demand for decoction pieces and Chinese patent medicine raw materials both increased, of which the demand for gastrointestinal drugs increased by 367.1% year-on-year; second, production has been continuously affected by drought and flood disasters; Third, the impact of the epidemic has caused the inventory of this variety to be empty, resulting in the price of Atractylodes macrocephalus soaring, constantly breaking through the highest level in history, and it is expected that it will still run at a high level in the later period.
White peony: The growth cycle is long, generally 4-5 years, and many growers have given up or reduced the planting area due to the fact that it fell close to the floor price in 2019-2020. In recent years, affected by the continuous reduction of the mining area, there are more artificial capital participation, and there are more cases of reluctance to sell and higher prices by holders, and the market will still run at a high level in the future.
Peony skin: the general growth cycle is 5 years, can also grow to 6-8 years, due to the planting area began to decrease after 2015, in recent years has been basically in the state of only digging not planting, plus the product is time-consuming and labor-intensive, high processing costs, in the long term, the market will still remain at a high level.
Aster: This variety is easy to grow and does not have high requirements for soil and environment. The product is generally planted directly after the new production in the early spring of each year, and the planting input cost per mu is not much, the planting input is about 1000 yuan in previous years, and the planting investment of one mu in 2023 is about 2000 yuan, and the general yield per mu is between 1000-1500 kg, and the dry product is 300-400 kg, according to the new market price of 70-80 yuan this year, the normal output value per mu of the new production is 2-30,000 yuan, compared with the income of growers per mu in previous years, the planting enthusiasm of farmers is more than 5000 yuan, In addition, the price of aster buds has skyrocketed in the past two years, and the income per mu has been additionally increased. After the surge in planting area, the future market will fall rationally.
Chrysanthemum: last year's large amount, the price of new production fell to the ultra-low price, growers lost money, many businesses actively copied the bottom, this year's planting area as a whole has decreased, but because the price rose in advance during the planting season, the actual decrease this year has to be observed. The production cost of this product is low, and the picking cost is the bottom of the market.
Oxknee: From the price point of view, it is indeed not high, but this product Hebei and Henan wheat harvest planting, belongs to semi-annual crops, and corn than income, the current corn price falls, and the current planting period, the market rises in advance is not conducive to production reduction.
Dilong: It is a large variety of animal medicinal materials, and the sales volume is not small, and it belongs to the demand for steel. It's just that there are too many origins of this product, most of the provinces in China have production, and the large amount of foreign imports has caused many businesses to pay attention to it, but it is difficult to make a big breakthrough in the ups and downs of the market. The market outlook focuses on the impact of national regulatory policies and the new pharmacopoeia.
Cork Cork: The current "pioneer officer" of bark medicinal materials, has played an exemplary and exemplary role for other bark medicinal materials. After years of accumulation, several market shocks, there is finally a big breakthrough. The production cycle is long, the production is difficult to recover, and after several years of continuous rise in the market, the over-development of resources in the production area, which will affect the output in the following years, in the short term, there is inventory pressure, and in the long term, there will be less resources to support, and the mentality of the holders is firm.
Eucommia ulmoides: One of the representatives of "three woods" medicinal materials, there are many origins, resources are widely distributed, and resources are difficult to investigate, resulting in a stable market for many years. At present, driven by cork, the market of Eucommia ulmoides has also heated up, and the attention has increased, but Eucommia ulmoides has not yet undergone the baptism of market shocks, and the resource situation has not yet been verified, and it is estimated that the market will be dominated by shocks in the near future.
Acacia bark: wild resources, medium dosage, strong market exclusivity, historically the market has been hovering at a low level. The price doubled in 2021 and ran firmly, indicating that a new bottom has been established. In 2023, driven by the super bull market, the market wants to rise again, but there are still plenty of resources, and the market is just a flash in the pan, and it will quickly return to its original position after rising. In the short term, the acacia skin still needs to be adjusted by shocks, waiting for the further reduction of production at the resource end, and in the long run, it is difficult to recover production, and the long-term is still worth paying attention to.
Magnolia: The dosage is medium to high, the franchise is strong, and the peripheral businesses do not pay much attention. With the increase of work value, the bottom of the market is also steadily improving, and the market outlook focuses on the production of resources, which is mainly stable in the short term.
Cinnamon tube: large resource reserves, relatively short production cycle, stable supply and stable market at present. This price is not high, the social stock is not large, and the market will pay attention to the emergence of new favorable themes.
Xia Kuqiu: At present, although there is a quantity of old goods in the hands of merchants, but the cost is not lower than the current new price, and the enthusiasm for selling is average. Recently, Henan production area ushered in two effective rainfall, the drought has eased, farmers into the stage of cutting balls, with the students have summer vacation, the labor of cutting balls will also be further supplemented, it is expected that the amount of new goods cut out will slowly increase, then the market may fluctuate.
Broken bones: This product can produce new products all year round, although the broken bones are wild, but due to the wide distribution of production areas, and wild resources have not been exhausted, high prices are easy to stimulate the increase in production, and even short-term price decline. After the actual digestion, the price in the future market still continues to rise. There is still potential in the long run.
Haijinsha: In recent years, the total output of Haijinsha is not large, and there is basically no inventory in the market, after all, it is a high price, and most of the market operators are buying with sales, and drug users do not dare to stock up in large quantities. In a normal year, the output of Haijinsha can fully meet the market demand, and the price is also stable. In recent years, there is basically no adulteration, and the demand for genuine products has increased, which is the reason for the high price.
Citrus aurantium: There are many production areas and a large retention area, and the limes planted during the high price period from 2014 to 2018 have entered the full fruiting period one after another. Stimulated by high prices for many years, a lot of new areas have been expanded, especially in Chongqing in recent years. However, because the flowering and fruiting stages of citrus aurantium are susceptible to disasters and yield reductions, there are also large and small fruiting years, and the market often fluctuates due to this. Due to the large base of citrus aurantium plants on the ground, the conditions for a large rise are not available, and if there is a good yield reduction, a small rise is expected.
Cimicifuga : The current cimicifuga market has hit a record high, in this context, the domestic output and the volume of North Korean goods have a certain impact on the market, and the market has also entered a period of shock adjustment, we need to correctly understand the changes in the variety market. From a long-term perspective, as a wild resource variety with a long cycle, there is still room for hope in the future market.
Qianghuo: It is understood that the new production of Qianghuo in 2024 will be reduced by 60% compared with 2023, and the volume in 2025 will be almost not counted. The lack of seedlings due to the obstacle of heavy cropping and continuous cropping in major old producing areas is very common. Due to the national protection of Qianghuo wild resources, the shortage of mining and the abandonment of Qianghuo farmers by domestic species, coupled with the long planting cycle, with the digestion of the supply, there will be a gap between supply and demand in the later stage, and the market has to go to a higher level.
Buddha's hand: the recent Sichuan production area affected by the reduction of production, the market continues to rise, the production area is expected to officially produce new in August, the current origin has no supply, individual merchants began to accept new reservations, the asking price is more than 65. The cycle of bergamot takes 3-4 years, and the current price is not high, nor is it considered low. The price of bergamot rises and falls in the future, mainly depending on whether the weather is good.
Summer none: As a small variety, it is easy to be controlled in summer, and the price is easy to be pushed up step by step. However, hoarders must face two realities: first, after all, this variety is a small three varieties, the actual demand is not large, and the excessively high market will not suppress demand; Second, the variety is not easy to store and is prone to insects, and the risk of overdue storage is greater. The risk of the market outlook needs to be controlled in a timely manner.
Note: Unless otherwise specified, the price unit is in kilograms. Please look for the integrated operation of production, supply and marketing (planting, processing and sales) of Chinese herbal medicines: Gao Jiuheng said that medicinal materials will take you to learn more about the knowledge of the Chinese herbal medicine industry chain.