We have seen a very strong rebound in the A-share market after the opening of the session, with the three major indices rebounding at the same time, and the Shanghai Composite Index has risen nearly 1% so far. However, from the perspective of the trading volume of the two cities, it is very clear that the current trading volume of the two cities has not appeared particularly strong compared with the previous trading day, and it is a shrinking rise, which can be attributed to the corresponding infinite rebound from the technical side.
However, most of the sectors rebounded today, but we saw that there was a continuous shock in the direction of liquor, and the liquor sector has fallen by more than 0.5% so far.
So what is the reason for the relative decline in the liquor sector?
The core reason is that the consumption expectation of the high-end liquor market in the market has weakened, and the consumption momentum has weakened. The core reason for the decline in the stock price of mid-to-high-end liquor is that the current liquor consumption scene is limited and the consumer market is expected to weaken.
The correction cycle for consumer stocks has continued so far. Consumer stocks, led by liquor, are still in a cyclical adjustment stage in the entire cycle. Judging from the current obvious market, there was only a rebound at the daily level, and then it entered a new downward channel.
Moutai's wholesale prices have not continued to rebound. The current wholesale price of Moutai, the leader of liquor, has always been stable between 2,180 yuan and 2,200 yuan, and has not rebounded above the previous 2,600 yuan.
Is the current rally in liquor over?
Personally, I think that judging from the current liquor market, it is only a rebound at the daily level. At present, there is a new volatile downward market. The momentum below has not been strengthened, and there is not too much money under the situation of shrinking trading volume in the two markets, or incremental funds are only in the current liquor. It is likely to start a new volatile downward market.
What is the impact of the weak rebound of liquor and the re-shock and fall?
Medium and long-term counter-cyclical focus on the current liquor industry. At present, liquor has only entered a relative downward state, but if consumption recovery and consumption stimulation are carried out in the future, it will definitely drive new growth, so we need to pay attention to the liquor industry counter-cyclically
Keep an eye on other consumer stocks in contrarian correction cycles. Consumer stocks have entered a relative correction stage as a whole, except for the current strong pork direction, other consumer stocks have more or less injected into the overshoot. From this point of view, it is only a matter of time before consumption rebounds.