Contest & Time:
Euro 2024, 1/8 Finals (Match 1)
2024.06.30 00:00, Switzerland vs Italy
Score prediction: Switzerland 1:1, 0:0, 1:0 Italy (win, draw, draw)
The only close game in the 1/8 finals may not really be able to tell the winner in 90 minutes
ACCORDING TO THE PROBABILITIES OF SWITZERLAND AND ITALY PUBLISHED BY FOOTBALL OUTLETS SCORE 90 AND LIVE SCORE, THIS IS THE ONLY MATCH THAT HAS BEEN DEFINED AS A CLOSE MATCH BEFORE THE MATCH. After all, no matter what kind of pre-match prediction it is, almost no more than 10% of the two sides will be different.
Therefore, as soon as the knockout round comes up, there will be overtime or penalty kicks, and the probability will naturally increase sharply because of the appearance of this game.
Although in the combined team of the two teams, only Xhaka and Akanji have the advantage over the Italian players. However, it is undeniable that the situation of the Swiss team becoming more powerful as soon as they arrive at the national team is not at all reflected by relying on paper data.
Moreover, as the defending champions, Italy's serious decline in the strength of the forward line in this cup is actually an important premise that they are not favored at present.
After all, the current Switzerland can still be regarded as a standard four-wheel drive vehicle, and although the team as a whole does not have much bright spots, there are no obvious shortcomings that can be completely grasped by opponents.
But Italy is completely two-wheel drive, and the way of driving is still rear-wheel drive. This can actually be reflected from the data, although the goal of the draw with Croatia was scored by Zaccagni, but the promotion and assist were central defender Karafiori; In the 2-1 win over Albania, the goals came from the back and in the midfield!
Switzerland
Unbeaten in 16 of their 17 matches so far in 2023, Switzerland's lower limit is indeed trustworthy. However, the relative disadvantage lies in the weakness of the formation when it changes from 3 central defenders to 5 defenders, and this shortcoming depends on whether the defending champions can grasp it
In their last game against Germany, the Swiss team had already clearly demonstrated their characteristics - low possession and few shots on goal, but high efficiency and ultimately unbeaten.
So, as a team that cannot be fully measured by paper data, the mystery and unpredictability of this team lies in their resilience and integrity. After all, France were able to take a 3-1 lead in the last tournament and be equalized, while Spain eliminated them and went to a penalty shootout!
But the civilian Swiss team is not completely without weaknesses that can be grasped by opponents - the 3421 formation will adjust to 541 or 532 when defending, and this situation will also reduce the depth of the Swiss team's defense. After all, after the defense line is diluted, if one of them is blasted, it will naturally lead to the passivity of other areas.
Switzerland's attack, on the other hand, has its own rules – the wingers tend to adduct inside, making threatening passes and cutting forward in the middle or on the flanks. In addition, the fulcrum role of Embolo in the front court in the counterattack is also an important prerequisite for the team to complete the second attack and insert in the back row.
Overall, the Swiss team is relatively not afraid of slow or counter-attacking teams, so whether the Italian classic car can run is very important!
Italy
The defending champions Azzurri are actually getting weaker, after all, the talent of the strikers has determined their ceiling, and they may not really go very far
Three goals in three games is actually better than England at first glance, after all, Italy still averages one goal per game. But unfortunately, the proportion of these three goals came from the backfield players is really too large - Bastoni scored 1 goal, Calafioli 1 extreme assist helped his teammates draw with Croatia.
Therefore, although Italy is not a team that relies on the supergiant of the front line to decide the trend of the game, it is really too embarrassing and passive if there is no one in the front line.
So, for Italy, the team may have to try not to concede goals first in the knockout rounds, because their attacking ability is really too limited. Even, dragging the game into a penalty shootout to rely on Donnarumma's ability to save points to decide the team's promotion could be a tactic of Spalletti.
On the offensive end, when Chiesa Jr.'s form is obviously not as good as in the previous session, the play (long-range shot) from Barella may also become an important offensive means. After all, one of Sommer's relative shortcomings is saving long-range shots, as he is less than 1.85 meters tall and his coverage of some long-range shots is far from comparable to that of Donnarumma.
However, whether it is possible to create such a vacuum in front of the penalty area through rapid advancement and passing, or how to find the gap of the Swiss team through high-speed defense and attack, in fact, this question is not easy to answer!
Looking back at the last ten meetings between the two sides, in fact, except for the 3:0 victory of Italy in the last European Cup, most of the rest of the games hovered between 1 goal. Although more of the winners were Italy (4 wins, 6 draws), it can also be said that Switzerland is also 60% unbeaten against Italy!
Therefore, the 0:0 and 1:1 draws may have to be paid attention to, not only because of the high-frequency scores of the previous meetings between the two sides, but also because it is the most likely score and result combined with the characteristics of both sides.
So, in such a game, is it true that it takes a penalty shootout to determine the final promotion place through the play of Sommer and Donnarumma?