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#长文创作激励计划#上半年中国刚进行环台演习, the US Marine Corps announced that it would withdraw from Okinawa to Guam at the end of December this year.
According to other people familiar with the matter, the United States will also transfer some of Okinawa's troops to Hawaii around 2028.
If the U.S. withdrawal plan is successfully implemented, fewer than 10,000 U.S. troops will remain at the base in Okinawa next year.
This means that since the end of World War II, the United States has painstakingly managed the first island chain for more than half a century, and there will be a huge power vacuum.
Why did the U.S. military take the initiative to withdraw from Okinawa? Is it really going to abandon the first island chain, or is it a deliberate show of weakness to China?
The U.S. military abandoned Okinawa
The news of the US plan to abandon Okinawa has caused an uproar in Japanese public opinion, and the Fumio Kishida authorities are worried that the US withdrawal of troops from Okinawa is a precursor to the military strategic abandonment of Japan.
Since the end of World War II, the United States has been operating in Japan for more than half a century.
Although Okinawa occupies only 0.6 percent of Japan's total land area, the US military construction area in Okinawa accounts for 70 percent of the total area of US military bases in Japan.
It is true to say that Okinawa is the most important US military base in Japan.
Okinawa's strategic significance to the U.S. global layout lies in the fact that it is the middle hub of the first island chain: it is bordered by the Japanese mainland to the north, Taiwan to the south, and Chinese mainland to the west.
The shortest distance between Okinawa and the Chinese island of Taiwan is only 110 km.
It is precisely because of Okinawa's unique geographical location that the United States attaches great importance to it.
As far as Japan is concerned, if the Americans withdraw, they may lose not only the opportunity to interfere in the Taiwan Strait, but also their own security.
During this year's PLA military exercise around Taiwan, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces stationed in Okinawa went on high alert and activated the "Patriot-3" anti-missile system.
The Patriot-3 anti-missile system has a range of up to 160 kilometers and is basically capable of covering the Taiwan Strait.
Japanese parliamentarian Hirokazu Matsuno said in this regard: "Japan's move is to saturate the air interception capability around the Taiwan Strait and ensure the security of the Japanese mainland." ”
U.S. troops in Okinawa are not popular with locals
So what is the reason why the US military has to abandon this strategic location, despite Japan's concerns and the potential benefits of the first island chain?
During the more than half a century that US troops have been stationed in Okinawa, the local people of Okinawa have always had a strong sense of rejection of US troops, and it can be said that US troops are the "most unwelcome guests" of Okinawa.
The local anti-U.S. occupation movement in Okinawa has been in full swing and has a strong international impact.
The occupation of Okinawa by the U.S. military began after the Battle of Okinawa in June 1945.
The battle caused 95,000 Japanese casualties and 45,000 to 120,000 local civilians dead or missing, making it the largest casualty campaign during the Pacific War.
To this day, the Japanese people call the Battle of Okinawa "Iron Rain" as a testament to the brutality of the war. The series of military operations carried out by the US military in Okinawa have destroyed almost the entire modern Okinawa.
Most of today's Okinawan residents are descendants of those who survived the war, and it is precisely because of historical reasons that the local residents of Okinawa are quite hostile to the US military stationed in Japan.
Even after the US military completely occupied Okinawa, the US military still did not give up its sabotage activities against Okinawa, and this caused frequent conflicts between the US military stationed in Japan and the local residents of Okinawa.
In 1995, for example, three U.S. Marines beat and raped a 12-year-old girl in Okinawa. This appalling rape case led to a large-scale anti-American protest in Okinawa that year.
Under pressure from the local people, the U.S. Marine Corps had to move the "Futenma Base," where the American soldiers were located, to Ginowan.
On environmental issues, the US military stationed in Okinawa has often had a feud with the local people. Okinawa is only 1,207 square kilometers in size and is narrow from north to south, making it unsuitable for large-scale construction activities.
In order to turn Okinawa into an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" in the Asia-Pacific region, the US military has carried out large-scale land reclamation on the island of Okinawa, which has caused serious damage to the coral colonies inhabited by dugongs.
Under the tremendous pressure of public opinion in Japan and other countries around the world, the United States and Japan reached an agreement as early as 2012 on a plan to withdraw troops from Okinawa, which is scheduled to be implemented in 2024.
What the people of Okinawa today did not expect was that the US military, which had not been able to get rid of it before, would really "withdraw as scheduled" in 2024.
However, is the US military, which has been making constant moves in the Taiwan Strait in recent years, really willing to "never return"?
The evacuation of Okinawa is a sign of weakness or a lure to China
China's recent military exercises around Taiwan have raised doubts about the motives behind the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Okinawa: Is the U.S. military really showing weakness or trying to lure China in.
After all, before the US military withdrew from Okinawa, the "RAND" Corporation, a US think tank, proposed an ocean-going strategy to lure China into the second and third island chains and annihilate the Chinese Navy in the Pacific Ocean with the help of the US military's nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and electronic warfare superiority.
However, judging from today's international situation, whether the United States is forced to "show weakness" or deliberately "lure" and withdraw from Okinawa is a choice that the United States has no choice to make in order to preserve its strength.
In the "Joint Sword-2024A" military exercise, China has demonstrated enough hard power.
This may be the reason why the US military is withdrawing from Okinawa, and they seem to have come to believe that with China's current naval strength, the military bases in Okinawa will not do much, so it is better to withdraw most of the personnel and reduce the damage.
epilogue
As China's power grows, it is only a matter of time before US troops completely withdraw from Okinawa, or even completely abandon the first island chain. This is an inevitability of international strength being worn out by one another.
As for the attitude that Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, which are in the first island chain in the Asia-Pacific region, will adopt toward China after the withdrawal of US troops, it depends on their own.
Bibliography:
2024-06-19, Phoenix.com video: Half of the U.S. Okinawa garrison withdrew and only 10,000 remained, Yan Zhensheng: It's already very unpopular
Yahoo News: Withdraw from Okinawa and move to the second and third island chains! The U.S. 4,000 Marines moved another 5,000 garrisons to Guam to Hawaii and the mainland
Ryukyu Asahi Broadcasting: Guam Report Part 1 "U.S. Marine Corps Relocation Plan to Guam Now"