Now it is a market economy, the market price is determined according to the situation of the listed fat pigs, if the amount of pork on the market is in a situation of oversupply, the price of live pigs will fall. If pork is in short supply, hog prices will rise. In recent years, the pig market has been relatively weak, the price has been sluggish, and the long-term fluctuations around production costs have only seen two price surges in July and October during the golden period of the pig price cycle in 2022, and the rest of the time is low and unstable.
On May 18 this year, pig prices began to show a slow upward trend, and the price of fat pigs per catty around the Dragon Boat Festival exceeded 8.50 yuan in most places, and in some places broke through 9 yuan and approached 10 yuan. One of the reasons for the increase in pig prices this time is that it has entered a new pig price cycle, and the second reason is to reduce production capacity and eliminate a large number of sows, so that the number of sows in the herd has been greatly reduced. Third, the Dragon Boat Festival and the college entrance examination overlapped, and pork consumption increased. Pig farmers are holding a wait-and-see attitude, a large number of fat pigs on the market, artificially caused by the reduction of the number of fat pigs on the market, which has promoted the price of live pigs.
July to August due to the hot and dry climate and school summer vacation, is the off-season of pork consumption in a year, the price will have been at a low level, although July to August is the weakest season of pork consumption in a year, but with the recent college entrance examination admission, parents send students to school side travel, banquet to thank tutors and other to promote the development of tourism, catering industry, the arrival of the traditional festival Mid-Autumn Festival is the main factor driving the increase in pork consumption. This year is the golden period of the new price cycle of live pigs, so the price of live pigs will not fall sharply, and I think there is a high probability that it will still fluctuate around 9 yuan per catty. After the end of August, the temperature of pigs around the country dropped and schools have been opened, and gradually entered the peak season of pork consumption, the price of live pigs will rise slowly, I think the highest price of pigs this year appeared in November and December, the price of live pigs will fall during the Spring Festival, that is, the law of falling every year has taken effect.
The main factors that inhibit the continuous rise in pig prices are pig farmers, many pig price increases during the period of pig farmers concentrated on a large number of fat pigs, and some even did not reach the weight of the pigs also slaughtered, resulting in the saturation of pork in the market, forming a buyer's market, and the price fell. Many farms hoard a large number of fat pigs for secondary fattening during the price increase period, which virtually reduces the number of fat pigs on the market, resulting in a shortage of pork in the market and promoting price increases.
But raising big fat pigs is a loss, when the price of pigs reaches the highest, the second fattening of the pigs are all slaughtered, the second fattening of the pig meat is more than the standard pig, two big fat pigs are equivalent to the meat of three standard pigs, resulting in a decline in the price of pigs, so every time the price of pigs rises is about a month, the price of pigs is often short-lived, and soon towards the trough of prices. In addition, the factor that affects the price of pigs is to follow the trend of pig farms, whenever the price of pigs rises, there is a certain profit from breeding, social capital will pour into the pig industry, these farms do not raise sows, buy fattening piglets in the market, a large number of piglets caused the price of piglets to rise sharply, these piglets after 5-6 months of fattening a large number of slaughter, the market pigs are in a situation of oversupply, resulting in a sharp drop in pig prices.