Text: Dazhuang Laboratory
(All content in this article has official and reliable sources, and the specific information is detailed at the end of the article)
In the long history, the rise and fall of countries has become a norm, and even the former superpower, the Soviet Union, has not escaped the tricks of fate, and finally collapsed and became the predecessor of many countries.
And when the time comes to 2024, another country has disappeared from the world, and since the founding of the country in 1991, this country has fallen into a complex geopolitical game with Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey and other countries, and in just 33 years, it has come to an end in a hurry, so where is this country? How did the country come to an end in such a short period of time?
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The first "country" to disappear in 2024
According to an article published on October 13, 2020 by Huanqiu.com, the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh is located in the southwestern part of Azerbaijan, and the vast majority of the people living here are Armenians.
Originally, Armenians belonged to the Armenian state, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, many countries were divided, and the region of Nagorno-Karabakh was planned to be under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan.
However, Armenia is not happy, and it is for this reason that Azerbaijan and Armenia have been at odds over the administration of Nagorno-Karabakh in the Armenian belief that Nagorno-Karabakh should be part of Armenian territory.
In particular, after Nagorno-Karabakh was declared a Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in 1991, Azerbaijan has been in conflict with the Armenian-backed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic for many years in the name of defending the territorial integrity of the country, and has also waged many wars.
And on September 28 last year, Samwell Shahramanian, the leader of the separatist forces in Inner Armenia in Azerbaijan, released a piece of news that shocked the world.
From the first day of 2024, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic established in 1991 will officially disappear from the world, which means that the 33-year-old state will no longer exist, and this result will officially end the long-standing dispute between the two states of Inner Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In addition, Shahramanian also said that after the decree comes into force on January 1, 2024, including those who have left the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh and the people who are still in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, must have a clear understanding of the conditions proposed by the Republic of Azerbaijan for return.
This demobilization decree not only put an end to the secession of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenia, but also played a role in eliminating the root causes of religious and ethnic problems in the Caucasus region, which have long led to local conflicts.
The collapse of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is closely related to the victory of Azerbaijan in the war that produced the Armenian separatist movement.
It is precisely because of this war that half of the Armenians, who account for 80 percent of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh, have returned to Armenia for refuge, which indirectly deprived the rebels of their backing and became a tree without roots, and could only be forced to disarm, accept the armistice agreement, and officially return to the negotiating table.
From the article published by the Russian Sputnik news agency on September 17, 2018, we can understand that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been on the verge of breaking out since Nagorno-Karabakh officially seceded from Azerbaijan in 1988.
And in the following 1991, the then leader of Nagorno-Karabakh Stepanakert formally established the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh after breaking away from the Azerbaijani state, which further deteriorated Azerbaijan's relations with Nagorno-Karabakh and gradually lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Since then, Azerbaijan has been trying to negotiate with the reactionary forces in Nagorno-Karabakh in order to defend the territorial integrity of the country, but Armenia has always supported the interests of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which has hindered Azerbaijan to a certain extent.
In addition, due to the serious enclave phenomenon between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Azerbaijan, which has always believed in Islam, and Armenia, which believes in Orthodox Christianity, have always had friction due to their different beliefs, and the establishment of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has become the fuse for both countries.
The cause of the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh
In an article published on September 30, 2023, we can learn that historically, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the tragedy of the collapse of the Soviet Union are inextricably linked.
For a long time, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the Soviet Union and other forces have been engaged in complex geopolitical games, among which Armenia's domestic and foreign policies have also changed, especially in the choice of NATO and Russia, which has affected the trend of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
During the long period of the Soviet Union, based on the consideration of international relations and the governance of ethnic issues, Moscow took measures such as administrative district changes, population resets, and ethnic migrations, which formed a pattern of ethnic geography and created enclaves of various religions and nationalities to a certain extent.
As a result, Nagorno-Karabakh, which was originally legally part of Azerbaijan but whose main ethnic group was Armenians, became the fuse for Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Because the Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region have always been eager to return to Armenia, but because of the Azerbaijani administration, they can't help themselves.
In order to save its own people, Armenia started friction with Azerbaijan, and after Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence, it fought a war with Azerbaijan, and finally the stronger Armenia occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and also occupied part of Azerbaijani territory.
In addition, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the republics formed a situation of porridge, and they neglected the governance of the country for the sake of the division of immediate interests, and signed the Agreement on the Commonwealth of Independent States without resolving these major problems of the situation of enclaves and cross-border peoples.
This has laid the groundwork for the continued fermentation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the future, including the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the Georgian war, which are also inseparable from this agreement.
Even in modern times, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been the object of contention between Tsarist Russia, Iran, and Turkey, which further complicates the problem.
Not only Iran, but also Turkey has always considered the region its sphere of influence, and has also stepped in to support Azerbaijanis of the same origin as itself.
In addition, Russia sees this region as its own buffer zone, and has also stationed troops in Armenia to resist NATO's continued eastward expansion, so Russia is to some extent the country that really determines the future of Nagorno-Karabakh.
In 2018, after Armenia took power through a peaceful coup, relations with Russia slowly deteriorated, relations with the United States became better and better, and it also urged the withdrawal of Russian troops stationed in Armenia.
This was quickly noticed by Armenia's old enemies, Turkey and Azerbaijan, and seized the opportunity to quickly launch the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.
In this war, because of the loss of Russian support, Armenia had no choice but to sign a ceasefire agreement in 2022, in which Russia was allowed to deploy peacekeeping troops and agreed to return most of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan.
However, the Armenian leadership, which has suffered diplomatic setbacks, is extremely dissatisfied with Russia's inactive actions in the war, which has led to a reversal of the war, and has publicly accused Russia of not fulfilling the Collective Security Treaty.
And Armenian leader Pashnyan once refused to sign the communiqué at the summit of the Jito in Yerevan, which made Russian President Putin angry and left the scene, even though the relationship between Armenia and Russia has not reached the level of rupture, but Armenia's various actions in Cao Ying's heart and Han are already known to everyone.
To this end, Turkey saw another opportunity and relaunched the third Nagorno-Karabakh war in the name of counter-terrorism, in which the Armenian separatist forces were encircled and suppressed without legal support, thus bringing the 33-year history of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to an end.
For this reason, former Soviet leader Ryzhkov once lamented in his published book, he believed that the collapse of the Soviet Union was largely due to ethnic relations, which were fully reflected in the Nagorno-Karabakh War a few decades later.
With the outbreak of the Nagorno-Karabakh War, the development opportunities of several generations of people have been severely damaged, and countless innocent lives have been sacrificed.
Resources:
Huanqiu.com - How much competition is hidden behind the "deep" Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? October 13, 2020
Sputnik - Azerbaijan holds large-scale military exercises in the Nagorno-Karabakh region on September 17, 2018
Qingtong's Perspective: Historical Attribution and Geologic of the Fall of the "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic", September 30, 2023
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