This week is the closing week of the A-share market in the first half of the year, and after half a year of shocks, how to interpret the market in the second half of the year is about to kick off.
Looking forward to the future performance of A-shares, industry insiders judge that mid-July will usher in an intensive disclosure period for semi-annual report performance forecasts, and a small number of bright spots may become the focus of the market in the third quarter; Some growth sectors have clearly shown a performance inflection point, which may become the focus of investors' allocation after the third quarter; For the dividend strategy, in the short-term market risk appetite reduction stage, it continues to play the role of absolute return ballast.
For the specific allocation of the market outlook, the high-performance growth sector represented by the CSI 300 is cost-effective, artificial intelligence in the industry is still worth paying attention to, and companies with stable cash flow and operation and supported economic expectations are also optimistic; In terms of bond investment, short- and medium-term interest rate bonds may be structurally advantageous.
Major events that affect the future investment
The prosperity of the manufacturing industry is basically stable, and the overall output of the mainland economy has maintained expansion
According to data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on June 30, in June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.5%, the same as the previous month; The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were both 50.5%, down 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month. In terms of output, the mainland's economy has generally maintained expansion, but the foundation for sustained recovery still needs to be consolidated. Some experts said that from the perspective of the changes in the sub-index, the production side has increased steadily, the growth of new kinetic energy has accelerated, the vitality of micro subjects has improved, the pressure on raw material costs has fallen in the short term, and the overall economic operation is stable. However, the problem of insufficient market demand needs further attention.
The new regulations on commission reduction for public funds will be officially implemented on July 1
The "Regulations on the Administration of Securities Transaction Costs of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" came into effect on July 1, in which the commission rate for the transaction of passive equity fund products shall not exceed 2.62/10,000, and other types shall not exceed 5.24/10,000. The upper limit of the distribution of securities trading commissions of public funds shall be controlled, and the upper limit of the distribution ratio of trading commissions shall be reduced from 30% to 15% in light of the actual situation of the industry. Fund managers are required to regularly disclose information such as the level of transaction commission rates, annual aggregate expenses and distribution details on their official websites to strengthen market supervision and restraint.
Shanghai's property market set a number of records in one day
According to the "Online Real Estate" data hosted by the Shanghai Real Estate Exchange Center, 1,210 second-hand houses (including commercial, the same below) were traded in Shanghai on June 29, exceeding the 1,184 units on June 15, and exceeding 1,000 units for the fifth time in the month, becoming the highest transaction volume this year. In addition, as of June 29, the total transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai has reached 25,319 units that month, exceeding 25,000 units for the first time since June 2021, setting the highest monthly transaction record in the past three years.
Institutional outlook on investment
CITIC Securities: After the inflection point, it gradually turned to excellent growth
Mid-July is about to usher in the intensive disclosure period of semi-annual report performance forecasts, and a small number of bright spots may become the focus of the market in the third quarter, such as oil and gas, copper and aluminum, steel, etc. in the upstream sector, machinery and power grid equipment in the manufacturing sector, consumer electronics, domestic substitution of semiconductors, AI computing power, etc. in the TMT sector. The growth sector in the traditional impression of some investors has clearly shown a performance inflection point, which may become the focus of investors' allocation after the third quarter, and the high-performance growth sector represented by the CSI 300 is cost-effective.
Guotai Junan: The layout rebounds and the stock price elasticity is in the direction of greater direction
It is recommended that the investment focus should be on blue chip stocks with products, orders, performance, and reasonable valuations, and the investment perspective should be changed to the direction of layout rebound and greater stock price elasticity: first, the capital expenditure of the technology sector has stabilized and improved, and electronics, military industry, communications, machinery, and new materials are recommended; Second, AI+ equipment is expected to promote a new round of terminal update demand and create new consumption scenarios, and recommend Hong Kong stocks Internet, AI computing power, AI chips, computers, and media leaders; The third is to pay attention to cash flow and stable operation, and support the economic expectations, and recommend operators, electric power, Hong Kong stocks and high-dividend companies.
Bank of China Securities: The dividend strategy continues to play a role as a ballast for absolute returns
In the first half of 2024, the large-cap/dividend sector has become the focus of market capital chasing, and after the liquidity shock at the beginning of the year, the value sector represented by dividend stocks has risen in response. With the continuous guidance of "long-term investment" and "patient capital" on the policy side, the relative advantages of dividend stocks have become more and more obvious, and the dividend strategy continues to play the role of absolute return ballast in the stage of short-term market risk appetite reduction. The key to domestic demand lies in the stabilization and recovery of real estate data and the fiscal force, and the market still needs to wait patiently before that.
Ping An Fund: The high-dividend strategy is suitable as the main allocation direction
In terms of equity investment, the investment opportunities brought about by dividend assets, core assets, and the reshaping of the global supply chain are worth paying attention to, and it is suitable to take the absolute high dividend strategy, that is, stable value as the main allocation direction; In terms of bond investment, short- and medium-term interest rate bonds may be structurally advantageous, medium and high-grade credit bonds can be moderately extended, and short-duration and high-coupon strategies can continue to be adopted.
Qianhai Open Source Fund: Gives a "high allocation" rating to A-share financial and other sectors
Combined with the economic development and policy prediction in the second quarter, the overall financial, cyclical and technological aspects of the A-share market are given a "higher allocation"; Optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market, at present, Hong Kong stocks are bearish and cost-effective, and Hong Kong stocks still have high-quality companies that maintain profitability and continue to expand. In terms of the bond market, interest rate bonds are bullish for the long term, but to guard against short-term adjustment risks, the credit market recommends dumbbell allocation. In terms of commodity allocation, the allocation of gold has certain insurance attributes.
Morgan Stanley Fund: The valuation of the computing power sector is still at a reasonable level
At present, the large-scale investment of global AI industry giants and the penetration rate of the industry are still in the initial stage, and the IT infrastructure represented by computing power is benefiting from the demand for AI, and the prosperity is still on the rise, and the breakthrough of multimodality, AI applications and long text restrictions will continue to drive the growth of computing power demand. The valuation of the computing power sector is still at a reasonable level, and in the future, if the field of artificial intelligence can usher in the explosion of more super applications, there will be more original investment opportunities.
Reviewer: Wang Chao Editor: Ya Wenhui Proofreader: Wang Yin Producer: Li Ruoyu Signed: Peng Yong
