A group of growth fund managers are experiencing disruption and reshaping.
Wind Growth Fund Index shows that as of June 27, the index has fallen by about 35% since the beginning of 2022. Those fund managers who became famous when the "wind rose" on the growth track, many of them have fallen into the sand and "fallen off the altar" in the market in the past two years.
Do you sit back and wait, or do you want to change? The reporter found that in the past two years, the investment philosophy of more and more growth fund managers is changing. In terms of investment research methods, it has also gradually shifted from the perspective of paying more attention to demand-side analysis to taking into account both the demand side and the supply side. In addition, fund managers have become more diversified and balanced in the direction of their holdings.
Break through the original layout ideas
Since 2024, benefiting from the strengthening of the dividend wind, many funds with heavy positions in the dividend track have achieved steady growth in net value. However, looking at the top funds in terms of income this year, it can be found that among the funds that have stepped on the dividend track, there are several products managed by growth fund managers. For example, the CEIBS Era Win-Win Hybrid Launch A1 managed by Liu Weiwei, a growth fund manager from CEIBS Fund, has achieved a return of more than 20% since 2024.
Looking through Liu Weiwei's heavy stocks in the past year, the reporter found that Liu Weiwei not only retained the previous heavy position allocation of new energy batteries, photovoltaic and other growth tracks, but also increased the allocation of aquaculture, liquor and other industries. The first quarterly report shows that Muyuan shares, Luzhou Laojiao and other products appear in the list of heavy positions of several of its products under management. Compared with Liu Weiwei's heavy stocks in 2022, today's products are more diversified in terms of industry allocation.
In addition to aquaculture, liquor and other industries, dividend assets have also become a type of asset that many growth fund managers pay more attention to. For example, Fu Pengbo, fund manager of Ruiyuan Fund, said in last year's annual report that he was concerned about operators and companies with high dividend yields.
In addition to the diversification of the industry, diversification is also reflected in the concentration of individual stocks. Taking Huaan Media Internet Hybrid managed by growth fund manager Hu Yibin as an example, the first quarterly report shows that the top ten heavy stocks of this product account for 32.57% of the fund's net value, and the holdings are relatively dispersed; At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the top 10 heavy stocks of this product accounted for nearly 45% of the fund's net value. Earlier, at the end of the second quarter of 2018, it had been as high as 74%.
In addition, researchers from the Tianxiang Investment Advisory Fund Evaluation Center showed a set of data to reporters with Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mix as an example. Using the net value regression method to calculate the exposure of the product in different styles, TXMRT, the evaluation assistant of Tianxiang Fund, shows that since August 2021, the product has begun to gradually increase the exposure of value style to adapt to market changes, and in September 2022, the exposure ratio of value style will be increased to a higher range to improve product performance.
The supply side cannot be ignored
The "loss" of the growth track in the past two years may directly explain why growth fund managers seek change. Researchers from the Tianxiang Investment Advisory Fund Evaluation Center told reporters that firstly, affected by the economic cycle in the past two years, growth stocks have experienced a decline in performance growth when economic growth is sluggish; Second, due to the impact of overseas interest rate hikes, rising interest rates have put pressure on high-valuation growth stocks; Finally, against the backdrop of increased market volatility and uncertainty, the market's risk appetite has shifted from high-risk, high-return growth stocks to value stocks with stable returns.
The downturn in growth stocks has directly affected the effectiveness of related strategies. Taking the prosperity investment commonly used by growth fund managers as an example, Zheshang Securities once said in a research report that whether it is from the financial report data or from the medium and high frequency industry data, it can be found that the prosperity investment strategy is not continuously effective, but shows significant cyclical characteristics. The Huafu Securities report shows that this failure is still continuing. "Since the first quarter of 2023, the high-prosperity portfolio has continued to lag behind the industry's equal weight performance for four consecutive quarters."
In this context, whether to break away from the growth track has become a problem that many growth fund managers have to face. A fund manager of a Shanghai public offering institution bluntly said in a roadshow: "In the past, I tended to look for stocks with high expected returns, and it was difficult to accept relatively stable investment methods such as dividend strategies. However, as the market has changed and I have grown, I have come to realize that focusing solely on growth and valuations may not be enough to cope with the complex and volatile market environment. ”
Liu Weiwei also told reporters in a recent interview that in the past two years, he has increasingly felt that a balanced layout is an important way to ensure the long-term stability of portfolio performance. He admitted that too much attention to the new energy track had caused him to miss many investment opportunities in high-quality industries.
"I think many growth-style fund managers tend to pay more attention to the rapid growth of the demand side, giving too much weight to the analysis indicator of the industry's future growth space, and relatively downplaying the rapid changes in the supply side. After all, under the economic recovery in the past two years, the growth rate of market demand in some industries has slowed down, and it is not easy for growth fund managers who value demand space to capture high-quality companies with real growth. Liu Weiwei said.
Perseverance and transformation go hand in hand
In such an increasingly volatile investment environment, what is the way out for fund managers in the growth track?
Liang Hao, fund manager of Yuanlesheng Asset Management, once suggested that it is necessary to pay attention to the opportunities brought by price elasticity under the supply constraints of mature industries. "From the perspective of the four stages of development of the industry, 'embryonic stage, growth period, maturity period and recession period', many mature industries have also performed well in the past few years, because in the case of supply constraints, this type of company is more because of the elasticity of prices to bring about a rise in profitability."
"In the past two years, I have put competitiveness and business cycle in a more important position." Sun Wenlong, fund manager of Bodao Fund, said frankly, "I believe that enterprise value is the first principle of investment, but the realization of value needs to be obtained through the upward trend of the business cycle." Although cheap valuations are important, in practice, it is more desirable to see the fundamentals of business trends, and the trend on the right side can also shorten the process of value realization and give holders a better experience. ”
Examining a company from the perspective of long-term value is one of the solutions proposed by Liu Weiwei. He believes that as a growth-style fund manager, when selecting growth industries and companies, we should pay more attention to the company's competitive barriers and competitive landscape, and at the same time pay attention to the company's ability to obtain free cash flow for a long time, and select high-quality companies with long-term value in the industry as much as possible. "The advantage of growth fund managers is that they are good at tracking changes in the industry and exploring the future development space of the industry, but they do not have a deep understanding of the long-term value of these companies." Liu Weiwei said that nowadays, long-term value is more like an important anchor when selecting individual stocks, and has become an important analytical dimension when he researches companies.
In the view of Li Zhaoting of Yingmi Fund Research Institute, growth fund managers need to find a balance between change and perseverance in the current market environment. It is important to adhere to the long-term value investment philosophy to ensure that the intrinsic value and growth potential of the investment target are not affected by short-term market fluctuations. At the same time, it is also necessary to adjust the investment strategy in a timely manner and respond flexibly to changes in the market environment. Perseverance and transformation are not contradictory, but mutually reinforcing.
Reviewer: Hou Zhihong Editor: Ya Wenhui Proofreader: Wang Yin Producer: Li Ruoyu Signed: Peng Yong
