According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 30, in June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month; The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were both 50.5%, down 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in terms of output, the mainland's economy has generally maintained expansion, but the foundation for sustained recovery still needs to be consolidated.
The prosperity of the manufacturing industry is basically stable
Zhao Qinghe said that in June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.5%, the same as the previous month, and the prosperity of the manufacturing industry was basically stable.
Image source: National Bureau of Statistics
Judging from the sub-data, the production of enterprises continued to expand. In June, the production index was 50.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the production of manufacturing enterprises continued to expand.
The new orders index was broadly flat. According to the data, the new orders index in June was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the market demand in the manufacturing industry is still insufficient. From the perspective of the industry, the new order index of papermaking, printing, cultural, educational, sports, aesthetic and entertainment products, railways, ships, aerospace equipment, computer communication and electronic equipment and other industries is higher than 53%, and the market demand of related industries is released quickly.
In June, the price index retreated. According to Zhao Qinghe's analysis, affected by factors such as the recent decline in the prices of some bulk commodities and the lack of market demand, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 51.7% and 47.9% respectively, down 5.2 and 2.5 percentage points from the previous month.
New drivers continue to grow. From the perspective of key industries, in June, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing was 52.3 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in the expansion range for eight consecutive months; the PMI of equipment manufacturing was 51 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and maintained expansion for four consecutive months. "The transformation and upgrading of the mainland's manufacturing industry continues to advance, and the new quality productivity continues to grow and develop. The PMIs of energy-intensive industries and consumer goods industries continued to be below the critical point at 47.4% and 49.5% respectively. Zhao Qinghe said.
In addition, business expectations are broadly stable. In June, the expected index of production and business activities was 54.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and manufacturing enterprises have stable expectations for market development. From the perspective of industries, the expected index of production and business activities in agricultural and sideline food processing, metal products, railways, ships, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment and other industries is located in a relatively high prosperity range of more than 58%, and enterprises have strong confidence in the development of the industry.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that since the beginning of this year, a number of policies to stabilize growth and promote a rebound have been put forward, and the results have continued to appear, gradually enhancing the strength of the economic rebound. However, it is important to note that the problem of demand contraction is still prominent.
"At present, we are in the critical stage of promoting an all-round economic rebound and sailing against the current, we must significantly increase the counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, significantly increase the role of government investment in stimulating enterprise orders, drive enterprise production and investment to continue to be active, the employment situation continues to improve, and accelerate the transformation of demand contraction to demand expansion." Zhang Liqun said.
The non-manufacturing sector continues to expand
Zhao Qinghe said that in June, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand.
Image source: National Bureau of Statistics
The prosperity of the service industry fell slightly. In June, the business activity index of the service industry was 50.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level of the service industry has declined. From the perspective of industries, the business activity index of air transport, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, insurance and other industries is in the relatively prosperous range of more than 55%, and the total business volume has grown rapidly; The business activity index of capital market services, real estate and other industries continued to run at a low level, and the prosperity level was low. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 57.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in a relatively high prosperity range, indicating that most service enterprises continue to be optimistic about the recent market development.
The expansion of the construction sector has slowed. Zhao Qinghe said that there has been continuous heavy rainfall in many places in the south recently, and the construction of the construction industry has been affected to a certain extent. In June, the business activity index of the construction industry was 52.3%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 54.7%, indicating that most construction enterprises remain optimistic about the future development of the industry.
Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that in June, the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased from the previous month, but it was still above 50%, which means that non-manufacturing business activities continued to expand. From the perspective of expectations, the expected improvement of the service industry will drive the non-manufacturing industry to improve, and the demand for summer consumption-related service industries is expected to be released in the next two months, becoming the main driving force to support the smooth operation of the non-manufacturing industry.
Reviewer: Ni Mingya Editor: Li Ruoyu Ya Wenhui Proofreader: Wang Yin Signed: Sun Hong