Author: Yu Fei
01 | The Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor was opened
7 years of research, 7 years of construction, 24 kilometers, 30 minutes by car, across the Lingding Ocean of the Shenzhong Channel, June 30 at 10:50 a.m., officially opened, opened to traffic at 3 p.m.
The people on both sides of the Pearl River have been looking forward to this great passage of the century for a long time.
The reason why this is a century corridor is because, although its length is not as long as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, which was opened in 2018, but:
First, this passage has set 10 world bests.
This is a cross-sea cluster project integrating "bridges, islands, tunnels, and underwater interconnection". The project adopts the scheme of the East Tunnel and West Bridge, the route starts from the Shenzhen Airport Interchange, connects with the second phase of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Yanjiang Expressway, crosses the Pearl River Estuary to the west, lands at Ma'an Island in Zhongshan, docks with the Zhongkai Expressway under construction, and realizes landing in Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Guangzhou through the connecting line. With a total length of 24 kilometers, two-way eight lanes and a design speed of 100 km/h, the project is currently the most difficult cross-sea cluster project in the world.
According to Shenzhen's official disclosure, this channel has set 10 world's best, and has also set 10 international leading technologies.
Second, the actual carrying capacity is much greater than that of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge.
Although the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge has been opened a long time ago, this bridge is subject to the restrictions of the customs area, and not all vehicles can go up.
Crucially, the bridge perfectly avoids Shenzhen, which has the most traffic.
When the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge was built, Shenzhen strived for the "double Y" plan, but the final game result was a single "Y", so that the world's longest sea-crossing bridge successfully avoided Shenzhen.
The consequence of avoiding it is that this channel, which cost 126.9 billion yuan, is more like a tourist route with few vehicles after it is opened.
According to the Southern Network, in the five years since the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, a total of 36 million people and 7.5 million vehicles have traveled to and from Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao.
Compared with the Nansha Bridge, which opened in the same year, which is much shorter than it, the Nansha Bridge has a daily traffic flow of more than 100,000 people.
The Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor is expected to have a daily passenger flow comparable to that of the Nansha Bridge.
02 | Whoever is good is who is good and who is bad
The Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor runs through the whole line, and Shenzhen people go to the west bank without having to go to the congested Humen Bridge and Nansha Bridge.
At the same time, a considerable number of vehicles from Dongguan to the west coast will also choose the Shenzhong Channel, after all, the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel is wider.
In terms of tolls, the official price has long been announced.
The toll fee for the whole line is 66 yuan per time.
The opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor has greatly alleviated the congestion of the connecting passages on both sides of the Pearl River. According to the forecast, the daily traffic volume of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor will be 8-100,000 pcu/d after the opening of the high-speed channel. That is, an average of 80,000 to 100,000 traffic per day. It is directly comparable to the current traffic flow of Nansha Bridge.
This will greatly promote the circulation of various factors of production such as people, money, and materials on both sides of the Pearl River, and accelerate the expansion of economic benefits.
Of course, there are two sides to the coin, the opening of this bridge:
First, it is a great benefit for the cities on both sides of the Pearl River. Especially Zhongshan and Zhuhai.
Zhongshan is the biggest beneficiary. Because of the opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor, Zhongshan is directly connected to Qianhai, the economic hinterland of Shenzhen, and Zhongshan has also become a city near Shenzhen in the formal sense, which will greatly promote the economy of Zhongshan, which is currently in a downturn.
In recent years, Zhongshan's economy has encountered a dilemma under the superposition of the basic effects of the Sino-US trade game and its own high housing prices.
In 2018, Zhongshan's GDP growth rate was only 3.1%, and in 2019 it fell to 2%, in 2020 it was only 1.5%, and in 2022 it was only 0.5%.
Source: Zhongshan Bureau of Statistics
In 2019, in order to stabilize the economy, the Zhongshan Municipal Government prescribed 7 "prescriptions": 1. Spare no effort to stabilize employment; 2. We must go all out to stabilize investment; 3. Benchmark first-class platforms and recruit projects; 4. Take precautions to stabilize foreign trade; 5. Do everything possible to expand consumption; 6. Sincerely benefit the people's livelihood; 7. Strengthen data early warning and prediction.
But judging from the effect, there is almost nothing, and the GDP growth rate not only does not rise, but continues to fall.
In 2022, Zhongshan launched the transformation of inefficient industrial parks, referred to as "industrial reform", and called it a tough battle with no way out. After more than a year, Zhongshan has demolished more than 14,000 acres of inefficient industrial land.
The purpose of Zhongshan's move is to undertake the industrial transfer of Shenzhen with the help of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel, so as to achieve the second take-off.
However, Zhongshan seems to be in a bit of a hurry. Zhongshan is not a central city, and it does not attract very high-end industries to land like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
The original intention of rectifying the inefficient industrial park was good, but it did not take into account the actual situation in Zhongshan. A city like Zhongshan should strive to maintain the existing industries, and strive to optimize and attract high-end industries on the basis of the existing industries.
But now the high-end industry has not come, and under the rectification, the low-end industry has also been driven away.
According to the Zhongshan Bureau of Statistics, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Zhongshan fell by 1.4% in 2022.
Source: Zhongshan Bureau of Statistics
In addition, according to the data disclosed by the Zhongshan Municipal Administration for Market Regulation:
In 2022, a total of 52,279 market entities of various types will be cancelled in the city, a year-on-year increase of 9.28%. Among them, 1,180 state-owned, collective and their holding enterprises were cancelled, a year-on-year increase of 13.46%; 14,079 private enterprises were cancelled, a year-on-year increase of 23.60%; 232 foreign-invested enterprises were cancelled, a year-on-year decrease of 27.50%; 36,779 individual industrial and commercial households were cancelled, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%; 9 professional farmer cooperatives were cancelled, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%.
Private enterprises and foreign enterprises are evacuating.
Zhongshan clearly overestimated the role of a bridge. You must know that even a top domestic city like Shenzhen has a limited radiation range.
What's more, Shenzhen's Longgang, Pingshan, and Guangming still need a large number of industries to support their development, and the cooperation with Zhongshan will only be within a limited scope.
is also overly excited, and Zhuhai.
In the past two days, I have seen some media reports that the opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor will make the west bank of the Pearl River comparable to Pudong, and Zhuhai High-tech Zone is expected to become the second "Lujiazui".
Just look at this kind of expression. Even if the Shenzhen-Zhuhai Channel, which is still being planned, will take shape in the future, it will not be able to promote Zhuhai High-tech Zone to reach such a height.
It's good for Zhongshan and Zhuhai, but don't be overly self-congratulatory.
We must always understand a truth, if an area wants to do it, it needs continuous capital and industrial input, and it needs to spend real money, not a few documents and a channel can be supported.
Second, for Guangzhou, there is a certain downside.
If you want to say that the opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Passage is good for anyone, only Guangzhou.
Before the opening of this channel, people from Shenzhen, Huizhou and Shanwei went to the west bank, and if they drove either the Humen Bridge or the Nansha Bridge, if they took the high-speed rail or bullet train, they had to make a detour to Guangzhou.
Now that this passage is opened, more people will tend to drive or take a taxi and take the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Passage directly, without detouring to Guangzhou.
In addition, there will also be certain disadvantages for the travel of goods in Guangzhou.
Although the bridge itself is a bridge and tunnel structure, it has fully taken into account the needs of cargo ships going to sea in Nansha Port, and has no impact on the development of Nansha Port. This is also the result of a multi-party game.
However, the opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor will make it more convenient for goods on the west bank of the Pearl River to be transported to the port of Shenzhen. This is a point that Guangzhou has to face squarely.
03 | There are also three cross-sea passages
Looking at the opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel, the most anxious are Liaoning, Shandong, Hainan and Fujian.
Looking at the fact that Guangdong has opened two century-old passages from 2018 to 2024, its own cross-sea passage is still on paper.
The three cross-sea passages involved in the four provinces are the Bohai Rim Cross-Sea Passage, the Qiongzhou Strait Cross-Sea Passage, and the Taiwan Strait Cross-Sea Passage.
The "Liaoning Provincial Land and Spatial Plan (2021-2035)", which was approved this year, proposes to "consolidate and expand the opening channel of Harbin University, and reserve the Dalian end of the Bohai Bay cross-sea channel". In the "Land and Spatial Planning of Shandong Province", it is also mentioned that "promoting the planning and demonstration of the cross-sea passage of the Bohai Strait".
This is a cross-sea passage that directly connects Dalian and Yantai, or the Liaodong Peninsula and Shandong Peninsula.
Looking at each other in pairs, they seem to be close at hand, but they are thousands of miles away.
From Shandong to the central city of Liaoning, it takes more than 1,000 kilometers to detour, the driving time is as much as more than ten hours, the high-speed rail also takes at least 5 hours, and the direct ferry also takes about 7 hours.
As early as the end of the last century (1992), the governments of the two places had the intention to build the corridor, but due to the constraints of technology and funds, they were slow to put it into action.
Over the years, official documents of the two places have also been frequently mentioned, but they have remained on paper.
In 2019, The Paper disclosed that the internal research of the Bohai Bay cross-sea corridor has reached a critical juncture, and the research team has completed the strategic planning research report of the channel plan and has submitted it to the National Development and Reform Commission for approval, with a preliminary estimate of 300 billion yuan in project funds.
But until now, it has not been approved.
The Qiongzhou Strait cross-sea passage has been officially researched since 1994, and it has been 30 years since then. 30 years, still a dream.
Although the distance between the Qiongzhou Strait is not long, after all, there is a sea in the middle, which makes Hainan Island always lonely.
Previously, Hainan could only travel between Hainan and the mainland by flight or ferry. It was not until 2004 that Hainan Island said goodbye to its history of no off-island railway connection. In that year, China's first cross-sea railway, the Guangdong-Haihai Railway Channel, was officially opened for passenger transport, and there was a direct train from Guangzhou to Haikou and Sanya for the first time.
However, the direct train does not rely on a tunnel or a bridge, but by a ferry. When they arrive at the port terminal, the trains are also divided and grouped, and the whole journey takes about three hours to cross the strait with the help of special ferries.
It is very cumbersome, complicated, and time-consuming.
Due to the existence of the strait, the distance from Guangzhou to Haikou is less than 600 kilometers, and the fastest train time is 11 hours.
In July 2018, the Ministry of Transport issued the "Implementation Plan for the Implementation of the Guiding Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Supporting Hainan to Comprehensively Deepen Reform and Opening-up". In this scenario, it is proposed:
Study the passage of the Qiongzhou Strait, build a comprehensive transportation corridor composed of high-speed railways, highways, waterways and other modes of transportation, and integrate them into the national comprehensive transportation corridor.
In the "Hainan Modern Comprehensive Transportation System Plan" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the narrative has changed again.
The plan begins by pointing out that "there are structural contradictions in [Hainan's] integrated transport network...... Trans-Qiongzhou Strait transportation is affected by the weather but not smooth......".
Then the solution given was: "carry out a study on the construction plan of the cross-Qiongzhou Strait railway"; "The study proposes an integrated transportation scheme of railway and sea transportation across the Qiongzhou Strait".
The official document mentions the Qiongzhou Strait, but not once does it mention the passage of the Qiongzhou Strait.
Why did you not approve the construction of the cross-sea passage of the Qiongzhou Strait despite knowing that it was inconvenient? There are several factors:
Complex geological conditions: the average water depth of the Qiongzhou Strait is 44 meters, the deepest reaches 114 meters, if the bridge pier is built, it is necessary to set aside the sea passage, which means that the bridge deck should be raised, the height of the bridge pier is at least 100 meters or more, which is equivalent to the height of a 30-story building, and there is no precedent in China. At the same time, there are three fault zones in the area, and in the event of geological movements, it would be devastating for the project. The construction of undersea tunnels also faces many difficulties, such as relatively low accuracy and high cost of deep-water surveys, long-distance tunnel ventilation problems, and submarine water inflow. The undersea tunnel requires digging a suitable ramp from under a 120-metre deep pit, which is too costly.
Adverse meteorological conditions: the Qiongzhou Strait is perennially windy, the average number of days with wind force above level 6 is about 170 days per year, of which 15.5 days with wind force above level 8, and the maximum wind force is above 12 from July to September, and the region is one of the most affected areas by typhoons and monsoons on the mainland, typhoons will bring great damage, and the dynamic effect of wind on bridge structures will be more significant with the increase of bridge length. In addition, the sea fog is also relatively dense and concentrated, and it is challenging to measure the coordinates of structures in the dense marine fog environment.
Economic considerations: According to official statistics, the demand for traffic across the Qiongzhou Strait is relatively small, and there is a gap compared with the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and the Hangzhou Bay Bridge that have been built to connect "first-tier cities". From the perspective of economic effect, the project seems to be a loss-making business.
Busy waterways: The Qiongzhou Strait is a transportation choke point connecting Hainan Island with the mainland, and the busy waterways also increase the difficulty and complexity of the project.
Despite the difficulties, the construction of the cross-sea passage of the Qiongzhou Strait is of great significance for strengthening the connection between Hainan and the mainland and promoting economic development. For example, in October 2022, the official website of the Haikou Municipal Transportation and Port and Shipping Administration released a public draft that clearly stated that "the long-term reservation of the Qiongzhou Strait cross-sea project" was clearly proposed.
As for the cross-sea passage through the Taiwan Strait, the formal significance of its proposal is greater than the reality. Taiwan Province is an inalienable part of China, so Taiwan must be indispensable in the planning at the national level.
The planned Taiwan Strait passage is dual-purpose for road and rail. The Beijing-Hong Kong (Taiwan) high-speed railway, proposed in the National Medium and Long-term Railway Plan, is one of the components of the corridor.
These plans are still only a blueprint, and after all, all plans can only take shape after Taiwan's return to the motherland.