Friends, the A-share market has really changed!
Because you will find that no matter what kind of system and policy (the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the exchange issued a total of more than 70 system measures in the first half of the year), the stock market just can't rise;
No matter what kind of good news comes out (every Friday after the market, there are always various favorable policies), but the stock market always opens without reaction, and it is no longer the market that has traces to follow.
When "flexible employment" appeared, when financial investment became "financial consumption", I knew that everything in A-shares was actually quietly changing.
For the 200 million shareholders and more than 700 million people, if the market cannot be changed by the initiative, it will inevitably pay a higher consumption price, which is actually paying for the reform of the financial market.
The picture comes from the Internet
When financial consumption appeared, many shareholders finally realized:
Why is there less and less principal to participate in the stock market? Because everything is consumed.
In fact, there are many changes in the A-share market, but they can be explained in combination with the following three examples:
1. With the end of the first half of the year, it means that the first batch of random inspection IPO companies in 2024 have all been offline, which is equivalent to the total annihilation:
The picture comes from the Financial Associated Press
Although there are not many IPO companies in the first batch of random inspections this year, only two, these two have all voluntarily withdrawn their listing applications, which is equivalent to all going offline.
One is Hengda Intelligent Control, sponsored by CITIC Construction Investment, and the other is Urban Construction Design, sponsored by CITIC Securities;
Both of them took the initiative to cancel the order, and they did not give the opportunity for on-site inspection, I don't know if they are empty-hearted.
The key is that the two sponsors, China Securities Construction Investment and CITIC Securities, have withdrawn a lot of IPO listing applications this year, and they have also been on the stock market hot search several times, indicating that there are indeed many problems.
The key is that on June 28, Huabao Securities also voluntarily withdrew its application, and the sponsor was CICC; (Huabao's withdrawal of the application, on the one hand, is related to the strict IPO review, on the other hand, it is also related to the market sentiment and the overall weakness of the current brokerage sector, and the company chooses to temporarily withdraw the application and choose the opportunity to go again);
The first batch of total annihilation is a signal of strong regulatory continuation for the market, and the most important thing is that these sponsors are all well-known investment banking departments in the A-share market.
2. What is the impact of the cancellation of 900 private placements on the market in the first half of this year?
The picture comes from the Internet
How do you feel when you see this data? Last year, 2,573 private placements were cancelled, and about 900 were cancelled in the first half of this year, and nearly 2,000 are expected to be available throughout the year.
According to this ratio, there have been more than 4,000 private placements cancelled for two consecutive years, how will you feel when you see this data?
The first thought may be that this is the process of survival of the fittest in the industry, and private placements that do not meet market requirements will eventually be cancelled and eliminated, and they will feel that this is a good thing.
Think about it from another angle, what is the reason behind the large-scale cancellation of private placements?
First, the supervision of private placements is becoming more and more stringent, and the compliance requirements are high, so many private placements choose to cancel their registration;
Second, the industry is deserted, resulting in a large number of private placements unable to continue to operate, or unable to raise funds after registration to complete the sequel;
Third, the market is sluggish, so that a large number of private placements are liquidated at a loss and voluntarily cancelled;
Fourth, some private placements have been cancelled by the association or announced by the association after receiving penalties for illegal capital allocation and leverage;
These are the reasons behind this, which correspond to more industry development, mainly due to changes in the A-share market, private equity is no longer a representative of high returns, and everyone's trust in private equity is declining sharply.
More importantly, with the increase in the number of private placements, the popularization of quantification, the mutual game between private placements, the existence of more kills among institutions, and the fluctuation of the superimposed market, more private placements are withdrawing, which actually has a certain impact on the liquidity of the market.
The decreasing number of private placements will also have a greater impact on the liquidity of the market, and in the long run, it may not be of much benefit to the A-share market.
3. According to the latest IPO data, hundreds of orders were cancelled in June, and there are still more than 400 in the queue, which has been halved compared with the same period:
The picture comes from Yicai
Judging from the latest data, there are 106 companies to be listed in June, which is the highest number of withdrawals in a single month this year, and June is actually the month when the three major exchanges restarted their IPOs and went to the meeting.
This shows that the three major exchanges have responded to the market's concerns and doubts with practical actions, and have not relaxed or accelerated the pace of listing because of the resumption of IPOs, which is still good;
In addition, there are 467 companies in the IPO queue, and there seem to be many more, but in fact more than half of the 961 in the same period last year, according to this rhythm, hundreds of voluntary withdrawals in a single month, more than 400 companies, it is estimated that more than half will apply for withdrawal.
In the first half of the year, a total of 44 companies achieved IPO, according to this ratio, you can also calculate how many withdrawals will be made.
Seeing this data, I don't know whether to be happy or sad?
Sadly, you can imagine how fast the pace of IPO listing was in the past few years, and how many garbage companies have entered the A-share market in the past few years, which may be potential thunder for retail investors;
Finally, from the above three aspects, it can actually reflect that the A-share market is indeed effective at least in terms of strict supervision under the leadership of the new village chief, and A-shares are indeed changing.
However, it has not yet changed to the essence, especially the quantitative, securities lending and refinancing, especially refinancing and quantitative trading, which are the most popular among retail investors, should not be legalized under the name of "standardization";
Now there has never been a rigorous response to this aspect, only mentioning constraints or norms, which is actually supporting its "legalization" in disguise.
Once the village uses the "standard", it is equivalent to supporting its legitimacy in disguise and protecting it in disguise, which will only help the momentum of short-selling and put the stock market under pressure for a long time. No matter how much patient capital is introduced in the future, it will be difficult to make the stock market rise in the end.
4. At the end of the article, for the first trading day and the first week of July, I would like to briefly say a few points:
First, the bottom rebound is in progress, and there is a high probability of hitting 3,000 points on Monday, but it may not be able to stand up, the reason is still the lack of incremental funds, just a reversal of the trial;
Second, the market will usher in the expiration of 300 billion reverse repurchase on Tuesday, and the pressure on market liquidity is still large.
Therefore, the probability of a good start is relatively large, but next week as a whole is mainly up and down, and if the amount can not be stabilized at more than 800 billion, it will only be regarded as a 100-point rebound.
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