Friends, on the last weekend of June, there is a lot of heavy news, what is the most impressive news? I think there are two main aspects:
First, for the first time, investors know that they are defined as financial consumers;
Second, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have spoken intensively, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will next have a package of measures to comprehensively deepen the reform of the capital market, and seven departments will jointly speak out to support the innovation of science and technology finance;
Third, the new village chief listened to opinions and suggestions extensively, and was listened to in terms of securities lending, quantification and refinancing, and there may be targeted policies in the next step;
What is the biggest feeling of the above three aspects of news? Let's talk about my thoughts first:
First, it wasn't until the end of this week that everyone discovered that the investors in the A-share market were not investors, but consumers; Investors pay attention to the value of investment and the return on investment, while the final result of consumers is consumption and pay, at most, they will enjoy a consumption process, where is the return?
Second, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a voice to deepen the reform package of measures, how to change? Will the voice of the shareholder friend be adopted? At present, shareholders mainly have a common voice in several aspects:
(1) Closing all short-selling tools such as quantification and refinancing;
(2) The delisting compensation system will be introduced immediately, and the compensation will be paid immediately on the date of delisting;
(3) The delivery of stock index futures and options has been changed from separate delivery on a monthly basis to centralized delivery on a quarterly or semi-annual basis;
(4) If the major shareholder's shareholding reduction is directly linked to the dividend, and the malicious fraud or shareholding reduction is maliciously falsified or reduced, the responsibility shall be investigated in accordance with the crime of fraud;
(5) Realize the principle of "three publics", strengthen the intermediary responsibilities of audits, securities firms, investment banks, sponsors, etc., and impose heavy penalties or even disqualification for violators;
As long as the above five aspects can be changed, I believe that the A-share market will have a significant effect, and the halving of stamp duty last year did not make the market rise. This year, the new village chief came to power, the "New National Nine Articles" were released, the IPO review was significantly stricter, and the quantification and refinancing were restricted, but the market still failed to rise, indicating that the reform was not enough.
The market also needs to be stimulated by more vigorous reforms, depending on the action in the third quarter.
In addition, today's research report has been swiped in the circle of friends, and CITIC Securities, the "first brother of the brokerage", released a high-profile research report, thinking that the turning point of the A-share market is about to appear, what do you think?
The picture comes from the Financial Associated Press
Judging from the emotional reactions of financial consumers over the weekend, there is a lot of controversy about this research report, one is that there are doubts about CITIC's views, and the other is that there is not enough confidence in the market.
If I remember correctly, the last time CITIC sang a high-profile song seems to be vivid, I still remember that around June 5, CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the second half of the A-share market will usher in the starting point of the annual rise.
The picture comes from the Internet
At that time, the A-share market was still above 3,000 points, and then the A-share market fell by more than 100 points and fell below the support of 3,000 points.
Now CITIC believes that the policy signals, price signals and external signals in the third quarter will become clearer, the liquidity of the A-share market will also improve, and the market will have an inflection point.
Originally, everyone still had some confidence in the third quarter, but as the biggest "short" in the market, they said so, but there was a little more worry, after all, singing long and short are actually two different things.
When CITIC withdraws all its empty orders, I think the convincing power of this research report's views will be greatly improved.
However, for the third quarter market, is there really no turnaround? Let's analyze a few points rationally:
First, the July meeting will become the starting point of policy force in the second half of the year, and it will also point out the direction for the second half of the year, and it is not clear how much it will rise, but the lower limit of the market will not be too low, that is, it will not stay below 3,000 points;
Second, after July, the market will enter the stage of interim performance disclosure, and the earnings season of light index and heavy stocks is the main target of capital chasing, and the unilateral decline is expected to be difficult to continue;
Third, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has spoken many times recently, more to convey the signal of reform to the market, and it is expected that more systems will be introduced in the second half of the year, and shareholders only need to wait for reform;
Fourth, the A-share market short system has not been canceled, although it is difficult to rise sharply, but the national team funds will still be copied to the bottom if they fall more, and there will be funds to smash the market when they rise, and the overall market is range-bound, and at this stage, below 3000 points is also in line with the logic of some funds to do long.
In general, for the market in the third quarter, there is hope for a partial rebound, but there is not very much confidence.
In the short term, especially in the A-share market next week, there will be a rebound in the inclined market, why do you say that?
On the one hand, the A-share market has experienced the confirmation of a low point this week, and it has also seen the traces of mysterious funds buying the bottom and protecting the disk, with the rise and fall alternating shuffling, and there is no further new low, which means that the rebound may not have really begun, so there is no end to the rebound;
On the other hand, the market sentiment is very pessimistic now, but the decline adjustment is not enough, indicating that the market state is more reluctant to sell, and more than 4,000 stocks in the first half of the year are down, 7 into the fund is a loss, in addition to the stability of the large-cap index, the rest of the indices are almost all down, small and medium-sized and the Beijing Stock Exchange This small-cap index fell even more;
Most financial consumers are mainly loss-making in their holdings, the funds in the market are lying flat, and they are almost reluctant to enter the market outside the market, and the time when the market is most unconfident is also the time when domestic institutions are most likely to rebound.
In particular, the major indices are already oversold, and the average market turnover has also appeared at the volume level, and a technical rebound can occur at any time.
Therefore, for next week's A-share market, after a single month of overall decline in June, there is a high probability that there will be a rebound in early July. It's just that the current rebound is not expected to be large, the first wave of rebound is expected to be around 100 points, and the target is around 3050 points;
After reaching this goal, the amount of energy needs to stabilize at a level of more than 800 billion, and if it is not reached, there may be a second step back after the rebound.
For tomorrow, the probability of a good start to continue to rebound is relatively large, and the key is to see whether the brokerage sector can bottom out or stop falling;
If the brokerage stops falling on Monday, the overall rebound will be stronger next week; If the brokerage does not fall on Monday, it proves that the main force does not really want to reverse the market, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rebound after the 100-point rebound.
Friday's brokerage sector suffered from the negative impact of the small composition, although after the market for many people to refute the rumors of the small composition, that the impact on the plate is not logical, but the brokerage Friday diving smashed the market is obviously more abnormal, 3000 points below the brokerage if the smashing again, is the most undesirable.
For investors and friends, the current is to look at the rebound, always ready to have the possibility of a second bottom, and the other is to see when the brokerage is out of the short to stop falling, which means when the real rise will begin.
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