On Friday, Biden and Trump held the first televised debate of the U.S. presidential election. One is the incumbent president with dementia who is down from time to time, and the other is the first former president to be found guilty, and the content of the debate has not received much attention. Everyone's focus is on Biden, who can't speak clearly.
In fact, Biden did slurred words throughout the game, and the line was disconnected from time to time. The whole world saw that Biden was too old. Some people may say that an elderly man in his 80s can stand for 90 minutes to win. But many more people don't want their president to be a fool. Biden is clearly a fiasco.
In fact, Biden did not have a clear advantage in the last presidential race, and he was elected not because Americans liked him, but because Americans hated Trump, who had been crazy for four years. And four years later, Biden's dementia has made Americans forget that Trump is actually a madman.
For the Democrats, the debate will undoubtedly be a catastrophic defeat. So the voice of replacing Biden is getting louder and louder, including many important people who originally supported Biden.
However, Biden himself is actually reluctant to withdraw now. Therefore, the replacement wing of the Democratic Party has to find a way to achieve a replacement. To make matters worse, the Democrats don't have a suitable candidate right now. There are only about 3 months left until the next debate, and it takes time to build prestige, 3 months is too short. However, Hawkeye believes that the Democrats will still choose to replace Biden. Rather than fail, it is better to have a normal fight, whether it is the first black female president, or even pull Obama out.
In any case, the probability of the Democrats winning this election is on the low side. If Trump wins, the situation could change.
We need to focus on the game-changing potential from Trump's election:
1. Trump advocates the policy of America First, and pays more attention to the interests of international capital rather than the interests of international capital. Under this guiding ideology, many key international situations will change.
Trump has said he will charge Japan, South Korea and Europe higher protection fees. NATO cannot serve everyone for free. If these countries do not pay protection money, let Putin fight them. This will undoubtedly make these little brothers run away. France has recently been called Huan, which wants to make itself the leader of Europe after the United States withdraws. However, without the care of the United States, these countries are only small minions in front of China, Russia, Iran, and even the DPRK. Then the geopolitical pattern of these places will also be subverted.
Second, it was Trump who said that he would increase tariffs on all Chinese goods by 100%. His important aides also said in the previous paragraph that they would ban all goods from China, that is, completely decouple. The trade war was originally initiated by Trump, and Biden continued. So, don't think that if Biden goes down, Sino-US trade will be better. It could actually be worse.
Third, Trump values Israel more. Recently, judging from the international situation, the United States wants to suppress the war in the Middle East and concentrate on Russia and Ukraine. However, if Trump comes to power, then Russia and Ukraine may be more played by Europe and Russia itself. The U.S. military, on the other hand, focuses on protecting Israel. Many people don't know that the Middle East is the Central Command of the US military, and the mainland of the United States is only the Northern Command. Trump may bring that positioning back.
Not to mention other more details, there are two more debates to follow, and we will do and observe. In fact, no matter who is elected, it will not be friendly to China. Why does the United States have to bring down China?
To sum up, in the first presidential debate, Biden was defeated and was likely to be replaced. Trump's probability of election has increased, and the United States is careful to retreat to one pole and decoupling will intensify.
Pay attention to the hawk's eye to see the wind, pay attention to opportunities, and avoid risks.
#美国总统#