After signing a military aid agreement with China, the Maldives took the initiative to find the United States, why is it a good thing? What opportunities can political changes in South Asia bring to China? Before the Sino-Indian border is completely peaceful, India wants to impose tariffs on Chinese steel, is a trade war coming?
China's free military aid, the Maldives to find the United States?
In recent years, the top priority in South Asia has been nothing more than the political shift in the Maldives.
Since Moiz, who has taken office late last year with the political symbol of "not being pro-India," diplomatic relations between the Maldives and India have become particularly strained. Although a large number of Indian government officials at the time stressed respect for the sovereignty of the Maldives, the smell of gunpowder in the air did not diminish.
In March this year, the Maldivian authorities signed a gratuitous military aid agreement with China, and a large number of Western media hyped that the Maldives was "turning to China", and the Indian media were angry but powerless.
Then news came out According to the previous agreement reached between the Maldives and the Indian side, all Indian troops had been withdrawn on May 10 and replaced by "civilian personnel", indicating the end of an era, and the Maldives finally got rid of the political symbol of "Indian puppet" and opened a new era of independence.
But as time went on, the political stance of the Maldives seems to have changed again.
According to a Reuters report on June 29, after the Maldives' foreign minister's visit to the United States, the Maldives' ambassador to Washington, D.C., Gafort, said on the same day that the Maldives occupies an important strategic position and is aware of its responsibility to maintain the "free, peaceful and stable Indian Ocean."
At the same time, Gavor also mentioned that he does not know the details of the defense agreements signed by China and the Maldives, but these signed agreements should not cause concern for other countries.
When asked how the Maldives deals with the trilateral relationship between China, India, and the United States, Gafour claimed that the three countries are all partners of the Maldives, and these countries are very important to the Maldives.
But Gavor highlighted that the U.S.-Malaysia relationship is "very strong" because both sides have recently opened embassies in each other's countries, and the Maldives' economy minister is expected to visit the U.S. next month to discuss an investment and trade framework agreement between the U.S. and the Maldives.
The Maldives' proximity to the United States is a reluctant move and is in line with China's strategic interests
Although on the surface, the Maldives ambassador to the United States is not leaky, but from a practical point of view, this statement of "no offense" also shows the embarrassing situation of the Maldives caught between major powers.
Geographically, the Maldives is quite close to India, and the gap in comprehensive strength between the two countries is even greater, coupled with India's notorious interference in the internal affairs of other countries, the Maldives has been hanging a "big mountain" over its head for a long time. Therefore, the new Muiz chose to stay close to China and use China's influence to balance the gap with India, which already has a territorial dispute.
Now, however, the Maldives has taken the initiative to strengthen its contacts with the United States, and the reasons behind it are probably manifold.
On the one hand, the Maldives is a touristy country with few resources of its own. After the United States completes deindustrialization, the local tertiary industry, that is, the service industry, is highly developed, which can provide some guidance to the Maldives and completely free the Maldives from India's invisible control of the tourism economy.
On the other hand, the Maldives also needs to establish in-depth cooperation with the United States, relying on its own strategic position to bargain with more Western countries, and the more foreign countries involved in investment, the more stable the domestic political situation in the Maldives.
For China, although the Maldives' behavior is suspected of being a backstab and has also given the United States a foothold in South Asia, it can also be regarded as a kind of driving the tiger and devouring the wolf, by introducing American forces, further weakening India's influence in the entire South Asian region, and also creating opportunities for China to open up South Asian outlets.
In other words, although the Maldives' "anti-India" is not the same as "pro-China", it can also indirectly affect China's layout in South Asia, and it is best to have a resonant effect, so that other small South Asian countries can follow suit, and directly shake India's dominance in South Asia, which will be of great benefit to China's future entry into the Strait of Malacca.
There is no peace on the Sino-Indian border, and there is a trade war between the two countries?
But then again, China-India relations are quite complicated today, and four years have passed since the bloody conflict on the border between China and India in 2020, but there is still no easing of some of the confrontations between the two sides on the border. And when the Chinese government proposed that China and India resume direct flights, India took out the border issue to bargain, causing the relationship between the two countries to reach a deadlock again.
India's steel ministry and trade ministry are in internal talks over increasing imports of Chinese steel, while India's major domestic steel producers have called for higher import duties on Chinese steel, according to a Reuters report on June 29.
According to the data, from April to May this year, India's total steel imports reached 1.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and China has been India's largest steel importer for three consecutive months.
Domestic companies, including Tata Steel, have viewed India's massive imports of Chinese steel as a "growing concern" and have asked the government to intervene quickly to raise the tax on imported steel from 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent, but India's steel ministry said it was due to strong domestic demand and therefore did not need to intervene.
But as time went on, the fire of steel imports gradually burned to the top of India, so the Ministry of Steel and India entered into negotiations with the Ministry of Trade.
If this round of negotiations is concluded and the result of the negotiations is additional tariffs, there will inevitably be a direct response from the Chinese government, and a trade war between China and India is very likely. Because as early as January this year, India has raised anti-dumping duties on some steel wheels from China, and now if it is increased twice, the consequences will be unimaginable.
Moreover, in terms of volume, India's industrial manufacturing capacity is far inferior to China's, resulting in a large trade deficit between the two sides.