We all know that in the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, Italy did not make it to the main event. Although Italy has indeed continued to regress since 2006, it is still a traditional European powerhouse. If Germany's exit from the group for two consecutive World Cups is shameful enough, then Italy, also a four-time World Cup winner, has no way of taking the stage.
Now that I think about it, Italy has missed the World Cup twice in a row, not because of its own strength, but because of a major mistake at a critical juncture. In the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, Italy was suffocated by Sweden in the play-offs, and in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, Jorginho first missed a penalty in the group stage, making Italy miss the first place in the group, and in the first game of the play-offs, Italy played North Macedonia at home, but in the end it was decided by the opponent. That is, if Italy had not been so unlucky at a critical juncture, they should not have been.
Now, with the expansion of the World Cup, the number of places on all continents has increased, which is equivalent to a layer of insurance for strong teams. But for Italy, I think they may miss the World Cup three times in a row, which means that they may not qualify for the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
This feeling comes from their 2-0 defeat to Switzerland at the European Championship.
To characterize a team by one game is, of course, one-sided. But the problem is that Italy played too poorly in this game, and all the statistics were behind in all aspects, especially in the first half, when they were almost pressed in the half by Switzerland. Perhaps in the eyes of many people, the scene should be reversed, it should be Italy pressing Switzerland to fight, and Switzerland is waiting for the opportunity to fight back. However, it is worth mentioning that Italy did not even play a decent counterattack in the first half, and even only had one shot on goal.
Just three years ago, at Euro 2021, Italy beat Switzerland 3-0. Of course, the time is different, the state of the team, the strength, the staffing is also different. But obviously, Italy has dropped a lot compared to when they won the championship three years ago, and the squad has changed a lot. The two elders are gone, and little Chiesa is gradually losing his spirituality. Only one Donnarumma is still making a difference, even more than three years ago.
Looking at the 2023 European qualifiers, Italy are a notch behind England and they can only compete with teams like Ukraine for second place in the group. After the start of the European Championship, Italy did show such strength again, facing Spain, being beaten violently throughout the game, and against the aging Croatia, it was barely equalized at the last moment.
It can be seen that the current Italy, to say that they are the top team in Europe, is only limited to the so-called heritage. In terms of real combat effectiveness, they are really no better than Switzerland and Denmark. So the question is, in the World Preliminary Round, Italy will definitely fall behind in the face of strong teams such as France, England, and Spain, so their direct competitors are not second-tier European teams like Switzerland and Denmark? In fact, it is really misleading to talk about the expansion of the World Cup, don't forget, this is Europe, don't look at the World Cup, which has increased by 16 places, but specifically to Europe, it has the most places, so the increase is the smallest. In other words, the pattern of the European World Preliminary Tournament will not change much. For Italy, what should not be beaten is still not beaten, and the nodes that should be experienced still have to be experienced. Moreover, it is not an exaggeration to say that the current Italy, in terms of strength, is not as good as in 2018 and 2022.
Of course, there are still two years left before the 2026 World Cup, and everything is still inconclusive. However, with Italy's recent performances and their talent pool, their prospects of reaching the World Cup will not be as optimistic as the previous two editions.