Second-hand fires are not uncommon this June
From the hot transaction of old and dilapidated to the rise of luxury real estate transactions
Each price segment is cashing out its own traffic at the prime time after this new deal
What a single day to break a thousand
To break 20,000, it is expected to reach a new high in the past three years...
Everybody is playing hard in this argument that can't be wrong
But the property market is still a place where data is spoken
When talking about data, it is more about the whole and the specific, complete monthly, quarterly, and annual
Or specific to the volume and how many people rank in the end
Standing on the last day of June, the rain continued outside the window
Let's take a look at how the second-hand looks like this June
01
Second-hand homes in June, estimated at 24,000 units
I have estimated the transaction of some second-hand homes with you before
Because there is a high probability that when we get the second-hand residential transaction data, it is already after the fifth day
Fortunately, there is a fixed relationship between second-hand housing and second-hand housing published by online real estate
With this relatively stable 92% of the transaction percentage
Our estimates for April and May can differ by 100 percent
Well, the data for the last two days of June is not out yet
Is the second-hand housing in June really as speculated by the outside world to break through 20,000 or even break through 25,000
We divide the data estimate into two steps
First of all, we use the weekend online lottery of June non-statutory holidays to calculate the average number and add it to the last two days
It is estimated that the number of second-hand houses in June will be 26,121 units, but this is a second-hand house, not a residence
Note: As of the 28th, 24,109 units have been sold in the city
And then we use that monthly second-hand home/second-hand home = 92%
It can be estimated that the number of second-hand residential online signatures in June will be 24,031 units
This is an estimate, but fortunately, the second-hand housing data is stable enough, and the proportion of second-hand housing and second-hand housing is also relatively stable
So 24,000 sets is a number that can be shared with you
Even if it rains like this today, there is a high probability that it will affect the number of people looking at the house
The probability of being delayed when going to the online signing center is relatively small
02
"24,000 sets, put it in the past three years to protect two and fight for one"
How do you feel about getting 24,000 sets of data, let me talk about mine first
I was expecting 100 points, but I knew in my heart that I might only get 80 points in the end, but in the end, I actually scored 90 points...
I've heard two types of anticipation for this June in the past few days
One said that it may break 25,000, and the second said that it may be the highest in the past three years, which is a full score expectation
Of course, there are other voices in the market, probably that Shanghai has also issued policies before, and there are also cycles that have an effect
Objectively speaking, this 24,000 sets is a role for the market in the past three years since June 2021
This is higher than in March last year and lower than in June 2021
There is a possibility that the data is underestimated, but the data has come to this point
Whether it is the first or second or even the third in the past three years is no longer the point
One thing you need to remember is that this June is a real second-hand thing
In the midst of all the doubts, the second-hand data is really up and is still ongoing
Previously, I compared with you the outstanding performance of Shanghai among the four first-tier cities, and said that he was ahead of the cliff
There are also many people who feel that Beijing has not yet fully opened up
In fact, after April 30, Beijing not only released the purchase restriction for singles outside the Fifth Ring Road, but also singles can buy another set
Shanghai only lifted the purchase restriction for singles in the outer ring on May 27, but the social security was changed from five years to three years
There are slight differences in the tightness of each line, but the comparison data is fair in their respective time nodes
A real estate teacher who watched Beijing joked that the Shanghai property market was the hope of the whole village
Now it seems that the number of 24,000 sets should be worthy of this title
And, to be honest, 24,000 sets, this number can actually be higher
There are three days of national statutory holidays before the Dragon Boat Festival, and then there is a torrential rain after the plum season in Shanghai on June 19
This is still at least 33 months ahead of the last 36 months
To put it objectively, Shanghai's purchasing power is very strong
03
Where is the purchasing power of June?
When we unfold these more than 20,000 sets of transaction data, there are some phenomena that I have seen for the first time
Start with a few "crude fiber" data
Looking at each district, I calculated the increase in June and May in 16 districts
Jiading, Songjiang, and Pudong really won hemp, with an average increase of more than 10%, especially Songjiang
I'll refine this data down to the plate
The top three sectors in the second-hand market in June were all from Songjiang, which was not expected
I went to the market and surveyed 80% of the sectors, and it was interesting that everyone could be ranked at the top
But the reasons vary
Note: Excluding the low-volume sectors, select 50 sets of sectors with ≥ transactions in June
For example, the No. 1 Xin Min villa sector, it stands to reason that this is the most difficult villa sector to leverage
Before March, there were still one or two sets of transactions in a month in a community here
However, after the new policy, there are two or three sets of transactions in each townhouse on average
The oasis Beverly in this sector has also sold two or three sets in the past two months, two sets of detached houses of Jinxuan New Villa have also been sold, and Repulse Bay Garden has just sold a set of 28.5 million yuan last week
And the transaction here also has its own replacement chain
The surrounding 3 million to 5 million owners sold their houses and replaced them with the superposition and townhouse of Xin Min villas, and the townhouse landlords replaced them with single-family houses or double-detached houses
The second and third places of the new bridge and the pier are both little-known rigid demand plates
Especially the car pier, we have heard of the god of the car pier for a long time, and it has also become the starting plate that Songjiang just needs
But after this new deal, the increase can reach 85%
In addition to the new policy, the background of this increase is mainly related to the type of property in its own community
Most of them are relocated houses, and the landlords who have moved from Yangpu and Huangpu districts have taken root here
And this year began to be a few larger communities here
Songnan City Yusheng Garden, Xinchen Treasure Mansion, Songnan City Mansion, Songnan City Mansion, Songnan City Mansion
Unified into the delivery time, this point in time to catch up with the policy spring breeze, the volume of transactions will rise at once
In fourth place is Pudong Weifang, which is a typical standard for the school district sector
Most of the communities in the plate are corresponding to Puming Normal School and Mingzhu Primary School
In previous years, December to April was the peak season, but now at this time, because of the new policy and the absolute low price of some units in recent years, the trading volume of the sector has also risen
There is also a kind of influence that seems to be the school district house, but in fact there are other reasons, such as Minhang Qibao
The largest and most famous community under the airway is Vanke Qibao City Garden
Shippo's increase also seems to be related to school districts and low prices
But in fact, there is a very important point in the hot spot
The intermediary brother here shared with me that a large part of the list in their hands comes from the two-child and three-child families here
Their need for improvement was also released after the New Deal, which favored families with many children
If you find that there are no general gains, you can also see different reasons for the rise
And more often than not, you'll find that every time we talk about rises, these rises sink into each sector with a different mechanism of action
04
The most interesting thing is this
When we sink to the price segment, the area segment, and the age segment, we will see the other side of the second-hand in June
From the perspective of the ring line, except for the dimension of the middle and outer rings, the other ring lines are generally rising
After the New Deal, the Middle and Middle Ring Roads have become a high and low ring line
The number of transaction units at the ring level is often nearly 10,000, and a 5% increase is already a big fluctuation
You can see that the inner ring, the inner middle ring, and the outer ring are all floating, especially the last two
Painstakingly mark here, and then connect this point
In the total price segment, you will find that the increase in the total price segment of 3 million to 5 million leads all the total price segments
This was originally the main price segment of Shanghai's second-hand transactions, but after the new deal, his increase was also the largest, compared with other price segments, it was almost a jump
There are two areas in the area segment that also belong to the jump, 30-50 square meters and 70-90 square meters
There is a high probability that it is inseparable from the contribution of the old and broken small in the inner ring and the small three rooms outside the outer ring
The age of the house is even more interesting, the most exaggerated increase is the increase in the absolute old houses before 1970, but the number of transactions in this part is not more than 100, and I will not start with you with the 30% increase
Comparable increases for older homes from 1970 to 1980, which is the highest increase outside of pre-1970 listings from a low base
You must know that the market for houses before 1990 was clearly abandoned before the New Deal (a little small, you can click on it to see)
The New Deal has almost single-handedly reversed the trend of transactions in the age segment
Even if it's only a few months, it's a rare spring for old and dilapidated landlords
Let's sum up the deals labels marked earlier
Inner ring, inner ring, outer ring - > 30-50 square meters, 70-90 square meters - >≤ 3 million, 300-5 million, 12 million -15 million
If we pick out the outstanding data of each sub-dimension, you will find that at least these kinds of housing needs are matched
Rigid demand: within +3 million in the inner ring, just changed: outside the outer ring +300-5 million + 70-90 square meters
Improvement 1: +12 million to 15 million in the inner ring, improvement 2: +12 million to 15 million in the inner ring
And these are also several types of crazy shipments after the New Deal
05
This June is going to set a record for second-hand use
On the 19th, there was a landslide in the market this week due to weather conditions
Whether it's market consulting or the execution of transfer orders
But this week, inquiries and transactions have risen again, which should be out of the V-shape in the online signing data in the next two weeks
As the most relaxed property market in the past five years, the data after the new deal is good, we are concerned about how good it is, and the current condition can be said to slightly exceed expectations
During the market survey, the intermediary brother of Minhang shared a data with me
How exaggerated is the release of rigid needs after the new deal?
He said that intermediaries generally divide the city into several regions, and the Xinmin region of this intermediary is a relatively well-known area that focuses on rigid demand
He went on to say that in the past, they had commission assessment indicators every month, and they were different every month, about 8 million
Before the New Deal, the target was only about 50 or 60 percent
But this June 20, 100% of the commission target has been completed
Internally, it even boldly predicted that the overall commission performance in June was three times the target
Overall, June's second-hand is really worth a note
The above is the text, from Chokrili
This is the 5380th original article of the real Lu Jun public account