[Introduction: Fate will have bumps, peaks and troughs alternate, for people and enterprises. A few years ago, the independent brands in the downturn were lying on their backs, and now they are ushering in the spring of independence with a wave of electric vehicles. However, the joint venture car companies that were proud of the spring breeze generally did not keep up with the electrification boom in time due to various reasons and are currently under pressure. However, some joint venture car companies are trying to break through, and hybrid technology and products are one of the breakthroughs. Whether it is an electric-based hybrid or an oil-based hybrid, it is expected to gain a broader space in the future. Although the auto market has changed abruptly, after the brutal price war, it will eventually return to the home of the technical war. Or, as Rilke said, to be victorious, to hold on is everything. There is no permanent winner, and all car companies are competing for a ticket to the next stop in the ups and downs of the market. After the big waves, the car companies that survive with "extraordinary skills" will be stronger. New opportunities are left to car companies that are ready to go. 】
Written by Li Suwan, edited by He Zi
The 20-year-old GAC Toyota has changed its previous low-key style of acting and has become a "young man with strong blood".
On June 28, GAC Toyota held the "First Science and Technology Open Day" event, which for the first time focused on the transformation achievements and forward-looking technology layout of the joint venture 2.0 era.
It is imperative to accelerate electrification. From January to May 2024, China's new energy vehicle market showed strong growth momentum, with total sales up 34.4% year-on-year, of which pure electric vehicle (EV) sales increased by 17.4% year-on-year, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales increased by 70.1% year-on-year. According to the prediction of the passenger association, the retail sales of new energy in June will reach 860,000, and the penetration rate is expected to reach a new high of 49.1%.
Independent brands led by BYD are driving electric vehicles to accelerate the seizure of joint venture brands. At the fifth-generation DM technology launch event on May 28, Wang Chuanfu, president of BYD, said that at present, in the international market, the myth of hybrid dominated by Japanese has been completely broken by Chinese brands. Global car companies are paying attention to China's hybrid technology and are following suit. At present, the world's most advanced plug-in mixing technology is in China, and the global plug-in mixing has entered the Chinese moment. He bluntly said that BYD was initially inspired by Japanese hybrid technology, but it has innovated towards hybrid technology based on electricity. In other words, there is a great pleasure of "green is better than blue".
The "gears of fate" of oil and electricity are turning, one with electricity as the core, the other with oil as the core, and two different hybrid routes are competing. At present, GAC Toyota is under some pressure, but is still the top ten manufacturers in the domestic car sales list in the top 10 Japanese joint venture car companies, its shareholder - Toyota Motor as early as 1997 launched the world's first mass-produced hybrid car, so far in the world has sold more than 26 million hybrid cars, and handed over 0 fire, 0 explosion, 0 leakage and other transcripts, these have undoubtedly become GAC Toyota's intelligent electric hybrid dual engine to move forward safely.
At this "Science and Technology Open Day", GAC Toyota's senior management said that the essence of hybrid is the deep integration of oil and electricity, it is not electricity before oil, or electricity when oil, but to give full play to the advantages of fuel and electricity, GAC Toyota's fifth-generation intelligent electric hybrid dual engine to achieve the ultimate balance of strong power and low fuel consumption. He put forward the view that "making the fuel tank bigger is a routine, and making the battery small is the technology", and also pointed out that although GAC Toyota's intelligent electric hybrid dual engine does not have the name of new energy, it has the reality of "new energy", and advocates "the same power of hybrid power".
Although GAC Toyota has not clearly "declared war" on whom, the field of gasoline-electric hybrid has been filled with gunsmoke.
The intelligent electric hybrid twin engine is charging into battle
Hybrid vehicles are the most talked-about protagonist in the auto market in 2024. With the rapid growth of plug-in hybrids and the ferocious price war, BYD has almost no suspense in winning the global new energy sales champion and the sales champion of domestic car companies in the first half of this year.
Plug-in hybrids have enjoyed preferential policies such as subsidies and purchase tax exemption for many years because they belong to the category of new energy vehicles, compared to hybrid vehicles (HEVs), which belong to energy-saving vehicles, are a bit "at a loss". Judging from the current market situation, trams are heating up, oil vehicles are cooling, and plug-in hybrids are more "popular" than hybrids. At present, the game between oil vehicles and trams in the domestic market has gradually reached a critical moment of equalization. At the moment of the electrification transformation of the global automotive industry, it seems that electric vehicles have become a general consensus to replace fuel vehicles.
However, the results of a new global consumer survey by consulting firm McKinsey & Company came as a surprise. The report asked about 200 questions to more than 30,000 consumers in 15 countries. According to the data, 38% of non-EV owners say their next car is expected to be a plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicle, up from 37% in 2022. The percentage of consumers who prefer to consider electric vehicles has increased, but the increase is small.
Another survey of EV owners showed that 29% of EV owners globally said they would change their minds and buy a new gasoline vehicle, compared to 46% of EV owners in the US and the highest proportion in Australia at 49%. China and Germany have relatively low proportions, at 28% and 24% respectively. It can be seen that in the future, whether it is the global or Chinese auto market, there are still many uncertainties and variables as to which technical route will prevail.
At present, hybrid has become the main outlet of electrification, and major brands are competing for the technological highland, and hybrid routes are constantly emerging, falling into a melee. In GAC Toyota's view, its intelligent electric hybrid dual engine with three ultimate balance to achieve comprehensive leadership, more than plug-in hybrid: the first balance of intelligent electric hybrid dual engine is the ultimate balance of oil and electricity, the use of the world's original planetary gear structure, to achieve two power output seamless, want to mix, this native oil and electricity balance structure is the biggest difference with other hybrids, other hybrids in the underlying logic is not oil and electricity balance, they are low-speed electricity-based, high-speed oil-based, can not achieve long-term oil-electric co-drive, oil and electricity"Looks like gods"; The second balance is the ultimate balance of strong power and low fuel consumption, with ultra-low fuel consumption in the full speed range, while most of the plug-in hybrids have "high reaction" and "fear of heights", and the fuel consumption performance is relatively poor in the environment of high speed, high altitude and high slope; The fifth-generation intelligent electric hybrid dual engine adopts a small battery with a capacity of only 1.12 degrees, and the battery management strategy of shallow charging and discharging makes the battery safety better than that of plug-in hybrid.
On the road of electrification, GAC Toyota is focusing on HEV at the same time, but also towards PHEV, EV, FCEV and other paths to meet the diversified needs of consumers, although multi-line operations will face some difficulties in the early stage, not as good as BYD's concentrated firepower to attack the pure electric and plug-in hybrid market The effect is immediate, but once the electric vehicle is opened, the future can be expected. This is a marathon endurance run, and it is worth mentioning that GAC Toyota also has nirvana.
It will usher in the competition point of solid-state battery competition
Behind the competition between various electric vehicles, to a certain extent, it is the competition between batteries that are known as the "heart" of electric vehicles, and BYD ushered in an explosive period, which is inseparable from the launch of its blade battery. At present, independent car companies such as BYD and multinational car companies such as Toyota, Volkswagen, and Hyundai are all riveting their strength to conduct a solid-state battery competition. BYD, the head of the independent company, and GAC Toyota, the head of the joint venture, will face each other in the key arena of solid-state batteries, whether it is an electric-based hybrid or an oil-based hybrid. Once solid-state batteries are mass-produced, with the significant increase in energy density, safety performance and charging speed, whoever masters the leading solid-state battery technology will likely master the new sales code.
Toyota, the world's largest automaker and the world's largest brand of intelligent electric hybrids, announced the progress of next-generation electrification technology at the GAC Toyota Technology Open Day, including four types of next-generation batteries, including performance lithium-ion batteries, popular lithium iron phosphate batteries, high-performance lithium-ion batteries, and all-solid-state batteries, which will be launched in the market from 2026.
The fastest new generation of batteries to land is a performance lithium battery, which is expected to be launched in 2026 and has a range of more than 1,000 kilometers, from 10% to 80% Fast charging in just 20 minutes. Expected to be launched in 2026-2027, the popular lithium iron phosphate battery makes use of the bipolar technology used in Toyota's first HEV model nickel-metal hydride battery, using high-quality lithium iron phosphate as the core material, with a range of up to 600 kilometers and a fast charging time of less than 30 minutes from 10% to 80%. The high-performance lithium-ion battery, which is expected to be launched in 2027-2028, combines a bipolar structure with lithium-ion chemistry and a high-nickel cathode to further improve performance, with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers and fast charging times as low as 20 minutes. The most anticipated black technology is undoubtedly the all-solid-state battery, which is being fully promoted with the goal of launching in 2027-2028. Combined with aerodynamic improvements and lightweight design, models equipped with solid-state batteries will have a range of more than 1,000 kilometers and a fast charge of just 10 minutes. The battery uses a solid-state electrolyte that allows ions to move faster, and is resistant to high pressures and less affected by temperature. Based on these characteristics, all-solid-state batteries are suitable for fast charging and discharging, and will overcome the problem of battery life degradation.
According to the plan, Toyota will launch 10 new electric models by 2026, and in 2026, it will sprint to the goal of selling 1.5 million electric vehicles a year, and the next generation of electric vehicles will debut the year after. By 2030, Toyota aims to sell 3.5 million electric vehicles, of which 1.7 million will be next-generation electric vehicles. Toyota continues to advance its all-round electrification strategy, and a plug-in hybrid model that supports fast charging will be launched in China in October this year. At the same time, Toyota is also actively working on next-generation engines that are more suitable for electrified models, and will apply them to PHEVs and HEVs. In China, the most important frontier of electrification, Toyota is bound to go all out and take the lead in introducing the latest technologies and products to joint ventures such as GAC Toyota. However, in China's auto market, which is the fastest growing and most competitive, electrification is the fastest-growing, this alone is not enough.
After 20 years of development, GAC Toyota has achieved the advancement from "production in China" to "research in China", and has the ability to upgrade the new generation models in China, strengthen the products of the new model year quickly and flexibly, and fully develop the new joint venture car in China. In addition to its own efforts and the support of Toyota, GAC Toyota also has strong support from the Chinese shareholder GAC Group, such as GAC has made breakthroughs in technologies such as solid-state batteries and pictureless pure visual intelligent driving systems. In addition, GAC Toyota has gathered a circle of science and technology friends to accelerate the layout of intelligent technology, including new intelligent cockpits empowered by technology giants Huawei and Tencent, as well as high-end intelligent driving technologies supported by Momenta and Pony.ai. GAC Toyota, which has entered the era of joint venture 2.0, has accelerated the integration of resources from all parties to enhance its new technological competitiveness, hoping to win back a game with hard-core technology on the smart electric track, and at least once again achieve a leading position in the hybrid race schedule.
Comments
BYD's "798" strategy and fifth-generation DM technology have been launched this year, allowing more car companies to further feel BYD's murderous spirit. However, the market is so cruel, the current BYD with the scale effect and price advantages, in the plug-in hybrid market to achieve a far ahead, its starting price of 79,800 yuan Qin PLUSDM-i Champion Edition and other models in the market will not be soft. Nowadays, even the top students of joint venture car companies such as FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, and GAC Toyota are under pressure, and they have stepped up their firepower to hold their turf and accelerate the construction of new technological moats. In terms of price, appearance design, etc., some joint venture brands may not be as able to grasp the psychology of consumers as BYD and other independent brands, but they still have strong R&D strength in core technologies such as batteries in the future. The "gears of fate" of oil and electricity are constantly turning, and technology is one of the main driving forces for car companies to move forward. Independent brands led by BYD and joint venture brands led by GAC Toyota are fighting for the present and the future in the field of "gasoline and electricity".
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