At 8 o'clock local time on June 30, the first round of voting in the French National Assembly election officially opened. According to the latest data released by the French Ministry of the Interior, support for the far-right National Rally leads the way, followed by the newly formed left-wing coalition "New Popular Front", and Macron's ruling coalition "together" is only third in terms of votes.
Public opinion believes that the "political gamble" of French President Emmanuel Macron to hold an early National Assembly election is very likely to fail. For the first time since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958, far-right parties are likely to have a majority in the National Assembly.
Macron's "political gamble"Loading...
The European Parliament elections, which are held every five years, are held from 6 to 9 June. French voters voted for 81 MEPs representing France, and the ruling party received much less support than the far-right parties. The strong rise of the far right in the European Parliament elections prompted Macron to announce the dissolution of the National Assembly on the evening of June 9, hold a new National Assembly election ahead of schedule, and hold two rounds of voting on June 30 and July 7. It is worth mentioning that the current French parliament was elected in June 2022 and was supposed to expire in 2027.
In the National Assembly election, more than 4,000 candidates from various political parties will contest 577 seats. In the first round of voting, candidates who receive more than half of the votes are directly elected; If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, the candidate who receives the support of not less than 12.5% of the registered voters in the constituency proceeds to the second round of voting, where the candidate with the highest number of votes is elected. Those elected will serve a five-year term.
According to official data released by the French Ministry of the Interior on July 1, the far-right party National Rally led the way with 29.25 percent support, followed by the newly formed left-wing coalition "New Popular Front" with about 27.99 percent of the vote, and the ruling coalition "Together" with about 20.04 percent of the vote, ranking third.
According to French media, the turnout in this round was between 65.5 and 69.7 percent, the highest since 1988. Although the second round of voting is still a week away, it is too early to speculate on the composition of the new National Assembly, but the loss of the relative majority of seats by the ruling coalition is almost a foregone conclusion.
Regarding the decision to dissolve parliament and hold early elections, Macron explained not so long ago:
On the one hand, in the European Parliament elections, the majority of French voted for extremism (both the far right and the far left); On the other hand, in the National Assembly, the ruling party has only a relative majority of seats, and the reform plan is hampered by the opposition. With three years left in his presidency and no longer running for president after that, this important decision was made to 'make the French think their choice'. ”
The election of the National Assembly does not threaten the position of the president, but it is closely related to the election of a new prime minister. In France, there may be a "co-governance" in which the president and the prime minister come from different parties, and the new prime minister is likely to come from a far-right party.
The French media interpreted Macron's "political gamble" as follows:
With the momentum of the National Rally (NLD), the likelibness of a far-right president in the future is increasing. Even if the National Alliance wins a majority in the early National Assembly elections and wins the prime minister's post, the leader of this party, which has absolutely no experience in governance, will continue to "fall behind", and the far-right will suffer various radical reform measures at every turn. In this way, the French people will further identify the far right and dispel illusions before the 2027 presidential election. ”
Who is the winner?The French constitution states that the president has the right to dissolve parliament. The French media pointed out that in the history of the French Fifth Republic, there have been five precedents for the president to respond to the political or social crisis faced by the government by dissolving the National Assembly. The president wants to reshuffle the cards with new parliamentary elections in an attempt to give the ruling party a chance to gain an absolute majority in parliament.
According to a previous poll conducted by the French polling company Erabe, 52% of French people support Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly. But the president's dissolution of parliament is also a "risky move", with both successful and unsuccessful precedents.
For example, in 1962, the opposition in the National Assembly passed a motion to impeach the then Prime Minister Pompidou, and then President Charles de Gaulle dissolved the National Assembly. In the reconvened elections to the National Assembly, de Gaulle's ruling party won, restoring the legitimacy of the Pompidou government.
For example, in 1997, then-President Jacques Chirac announced the dissolution of the National Assembly when the ruling party already had a majority of seats and wanted to expand the number of seats. But the results of the new National Assembly election showed that the Socialist Party-led French left-wing coalition won the election, which forced the right-wing Chirac to start a "left-right co-governance" with the left-wing Prime Minister Jospin at the time.
△Marine Le Pen (left) and Jordan Bardeira (right)
Right now, the far-right National Rassemblement is undoubtedly the biggest winner in the first round of voting. After the day's voting, to the cheers of supporters, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rassembled, said:
Macron's ruling camp has almost been washed away......"
For his part, the president of the National League, Jordan Bardeira, said:
The second round of voting, to be held on 7 July, will be one of the most decisive in the history of the French Fifth Republic. ”
If the National Rally wins a majority in the National Assembly, the far right will historically come to power in France. Whether it is a relative majority or an absolute majority, the 28-year-old Bardeira is expected to become the next French prime minister, ushering in the "era of co-governance" between centrists and far-right led by Macron.
France stands at a historical junctureBefore the National Assembly election, many French media described that "the French are facing a historic choice" and "France stands at a historical juncture". Will it affect the future of European politics?
Stephen Zumsteag, director of the public opinion and social research department of the French polling agency Ipsos, previously said in an interview with the main station reporter that Macron's dissolution of the National Assembly and early parliamentary elections is to reunite French voters who oppose extremism and support the idea of the republic. However, the dissolution of parliament is a very risky decision, and the impact of the National Assembly elections will be far-reaching.
Cui Hongjian, a professor at the Institute for Advanced Study of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing University of Foreign Chinese, believes that no matter what the outcome of the French National Assembly election will be in a week's time, the election itself has already shown that not only French politics, but also the entire European politics, has become more and more obvious to accelerate the trend of turning to the right. If France is mired in intensifying internal political struggles for a long time, and the rise of the far right affects the French government's domestic and foreign policies, it will undoubtedly be a major challenge for decision-making at the EU level. It is likely that the future development of the EU will be unclear, and the decision-making efficiency will be inefficient, and even a trend of integration regression to a certain extent.
△ French Prime Minister Gabriel Attar
Faced with the current situation, Macron called on supporters to hold a "broad rally" in the second round of voting against the far-right party National Rally after the results of the first round of voting. French Prime Minister Attar is likely to be forced to resign after the second round of voting, AFP said, warning that the far right is now standing in front of the "gates of power". For his part, Rafael Glucksmann, a key figure in the Syriza coalition, stressed that "we have seven days to save France from disaster." With less than a month left before the opening of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, the story of whether Macron's "political gamble" can win and where France will go is still to be continued.