China has a "no-first-shot principle" in diplomacy.
In the eyes of many, this principle is a sign of weakness. However, under this "weak" principle, the Asian countries around China are very well-behaved.
The fundamental reason why China has the "principle of not firing the first shot" is that China has sufficient political wisdom and knows that the "royal road" can go further than the "hegemonist".
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The hegemony of the United States
The so-called royal road refers to the use of cultural, economic and other means to make the other party surrender wholeheartedly.
The so-called "kingization" in China's "Tianxia system" during the feudal period refers to the sinicization of people of other ethnic groups through means including economy, education, culture and other aspects.
Now, China is using soft power to make other countries accept China and spontaneously seek cooperation with China.
The so-called hegemony refers to the use of military forceful means to forcibly suppress others and make others accept their own rule.
Domineering and royal roads have their own advantages and disadvantages, the advantage of domineering is that it works quickly, you send troops to beat the other side, and the other side will naturally listen to you.
But the disadvantage of domineering is that when your military capabilities are insufficient, you are likely to encounter backlash. The most typical case is the relationship between the United States and the Middle East.
U.S. troops involved in the Middle East war
After 2001, the United States launched a global anti-terrorism campaign, and began to use military means to overthrow the former governments of Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries, and then prop up pro-American governments.
While the US military power is still under control, these countries will implement policies favorable to the United States in the economic, diplomatic, and other fields.
However, with the continuous weakening of the United States and the continuous resistance of local anti-American forces, the United States can no longer support its Middle East strategy.
U.S. troops involved in the Middle East war
Then we can see that the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, and since then the US Middle East strategy has been completely bankrupt.
By now, the United States' influence in the Middle East is getting lower and lower, and even Saudi Arabia, an "American ally", has left the United States.
You must know that the United States can have the hegemony of the dollar, largely because the dollar is linked to cross-border oil transactions.
But in June 2024, Saudi Arabia announced that it would not renew its agreement with the United States to settle oil trade in dollars, which means that the US dollar hegemony has also begun to go bankrupt.
All this is the backlash brought about by the United States' hegemonic behavior and its eventual inability to continue to maintain its strategy after its own national strength began to weaken.
China's royal road
Compared with the United States, China's new "royal road" has been slow to produce results, but the effect has been long-lasting.
Let's take China's current relationship with ASEAN as an example. While the United States continues to suck the marrow of Latin America, China is actively developing economic and trade relations with Southeast Asia to build bilateral relations that are beneficial to both sides.
China is shifting the capacity it has eliminated to Southeast Asia. Although these industrial chains are backward for China, they are advanced for Southeast Asian countries.
And these industries can create a large number of jobs in Southeast Asian countries and increase the income of residents in these countries.
Conceptual diagram of the industrial chain
In addition, China is also actively providing infrastructure for Southeast Asian countries, helping them build power stations, railways, schools, hospitals and other facilities.
There are three obvious benefits that China can bring to itself from these actions. The first is to create a safer and more stable external environment for oneself.
For example, the United States has made a good fortune by knocking out Latin America, but the ordinary people of Latin America will not be able to survive. The common people of Latin America can't survive, so naturally they can only do some shady things.
So we can see that the United States is now plagued by refugees and drug problems, both of which are self-inflicted.
Refugees crossing the U.S. border
The second is to expand the size of its own economy and that of its neighbors. When the people of Southeast Asia make money, they have to consume, and then there is economic growth when there is consumption.
Therefore, when China helps Southeast Asian countries boost their economies, it is essentially upgrading its own economic level.
The third is to ensure the security of its own industrial chain and China's control over Southeast Asian countries.
China has helped Southeast Asian countries build infrastructure, and China will be involved in the operation of these infrastructures.
For example, if China helps Vietnam build a power grid, then Vietnam's power grid is connected to China's power grid, and whether Vietnam can use electricity or not is up to China.
As for the security of China's industrial chain, although the low-end industry is not profitable, it is also very important.
A typical low-end industry - the textile industry
These Southeast Asian countries are adjacent to China and are in the immediate vicinity of China. Then these countries have taken over China's low-end industries, and they are firmly bound to China in the industrial chain.
It can be said that these Southeast Asian countries, while accepting China's benefits, have also handed over their lifeblood to China.
But in the face of this kind of lifeblood being held by China, these countries will not rebel against China like countries that have endured the hegemony of the United States.
Because under the royal road of China, these countries enjoy considerable benefits. Compared with Latin America under the hegemonic rule of the United States, the fate of these Southeast Asian countries is much better.
So if China doesn't fire the first shot, in essence, China doesn't want to use military means to solve the problem.
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If you treat Southeast Asian countries strongly, people will rebel against you, which is far less effective than using economic, cultural and other gentle means.
China's heavy-handed approach
Of course, China does not like to use strong measures, and that does not mean that China does not have strong measures.
China uses limited military power when other countries infringe on China's core interests or try to challenge it.
For example, the Philippines and India have suffered big losses:
When the Philippines forcibly entered Ren'ai Jiao in mid-June 2024, the Chinese coast guard used forceful measures.
Ren-hsien
After a "cordial and friendly" clash between the two sides, a Filipino soldier was accidentally squeezed out of his finger, and the matter ended with the Philippines leaving Second Thomas Shoal after suffering a loss.
China's hardline behavior is a minimum of force. But if the Philippine side continues to stubbornly persist and continue to provoke China, the force will escalate.
Another Asian power has also seen China's methods, and that is India.
Whether it's the Galwan Valley conflict in 2020 or the border friction between India in the years that followed, China is demonstrating to India that it is willing to use a higher level of force while using minimal force.
Galwan Valley conflict
It can be said that China's attitude towards other countries is to be as gentle as possible.
But if you want to provoke China, then I will use the minimum force. If you continue to provoke China, then our force will increase layer by layer, and eventually we will fight a large-scale war, just like the self-defense and counterattack war against Vietnam in 1979.
Resources:
[1] China.com, "Philippine media: 7 Filipino soldiers were injured and 1 severed finger, China Coast Guard: China's handling is legal and legitimate! 》
[2] Reference News: "Saudi Arabia Terminates Petrodollar Agreement with the United States"