On June 30, local time, the first round of voting in the election of the new French National Assembly kicked off. France's far-right party, the National Rally, led by Le Pen, led strongly in the first round of voting, beating the ruling coalition of incumbent President Emmanuel Macron by about 10 percentage points. The dust has not yet settled, but media analysis says it is a "historic victory" for the French far right.
In terms of support, the National Alliance leads with 33%; This was followed by the newly formed left-wing coalition "New Popular Front", which received 28.5% of the vote; Macron's centrist coalition "together" has the third-highest approval rating at 22 percent.
France's far-right supporters celebrate Le Pen's lead
Due to the defeat of France's ruling Ba'ath Party in the European Parliament elections in early June, Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly on the 9th and held early elections for the National Assembly. By dissolving parliament at a time when the far right was in full swing, Macron's choice was once seen as a "political gamble" by the outside world.
Analysts note that Macron is ultimately betting on French citizens fearing a far-right government against this nationalist and anti-immigrant party. But judging from the results of today's election, Macron lost miserably.
The enthusiasm of the French people to vote in this National Assembly election is very high. It is reported that the voter turnout in the first round of parliament was as high as 65.5%-69.7%, an increase of 20 percentage points over last year and a record high in France since 1988. The far-right National Rally and the far-left France Indomitable also have ticketing centers packed with supporters, but the mood of the two is very different: the former cheers, the latter indignant.
Demonstrators gathered on the Place de la République in Paris on the 30th and raised their arms to protest against the French far-right National Alliance
According to France's electoral system, the final results of the parliamentary elections will not be known until the end of the second round of voting on July 7. But at the moment, the far-right camp is "closer to the center of power" than ever before. According to AFP, the vote could change the trajectory of France, witnessing the far-right party National Alliance in power for the first time since World War II.
"[It was] the most decisive vote in the history of the French Fifth Republic," said Jordan Badera, 28-year-old president of the National League, "and if the French give us a vote, my goal is to become prime minister for all French people." ”
The probability of the far right in power
Despite Le Pen's seemingly menacing appearance, the 33% support of the National Alliance is actually lower than the 36% estimated by Bloomberg last week, according to the analysis. This means that its final performance may not be as good as polls and outside estimates.
According to the French electoral system, a total of 577 seats in the French National Assembly will be re-elected, with a two-round voting system, with the second round of voting taking place on July 7. Once the National Alliance wins 289 seats, it will have an absolute majority in parliament, and Macron will have to face a situation where two rival parties will have to govern together.
According to the polling agency, according to available data, the National Alliance will win between 240 and 270 seats in the National Assembly, which is still far from reaching an absolute majority; Syriza will have 180 to 200 seats; Macron's centrist camp will have between 60 and 90 seats; The traditional right-wing Republican Party holds about 30 to 50 seats.
Speaking to a group of jubilant supporters after the election results, Le Pen told a group of jubilant supporters that the French people had put the National Alliance and its allies first, saying: "Democracy has spoken, the French people have pushed the National Alliance and its allies to the first place and have almost erased Macron's power!" ”
After the election results were announced, the leader of the "National Rassembled" Le Pen was smiling
Many French media used words such as "France holding its breath" and "leaping into the unknown" to describe the impact of the election results on France. Rahman, head of Europe at risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, was quoted by AFP as saying that the result of the vote would create a "suspended parliament" and that France would have a year of "political chaos and embarrassment".
"Left and right co-governance", or "left and right fighting"
According to current forecasts, the far right is still far from reaching an absolute majority, but some media say that if Le Pen's party's support continues to rise, it is not impossible to win an absolute majority. At that time, the president of the National Alliance, Badra, will become prime minister and co-govern with Macron, and France will fall into a situation of "left-right co-governance".
Jordan Bhadra, president of the National League
France has a semi-presidential system, where the president is the head of state and the prime minister is the head of government, both of which have real power. If the government and the president come from different camps on the left and right, it is called "left-right co-governance".
Reuters pointed out that although there were three "left-right co-governance" in France after the war, none of them were led by completely different camps.
Badra has previously said that he will challenge Macron on major national policy issues. Unlike Macron's pro-European, pro-market claims, Bhadra will seek to reverse Macron's policies of deep tax cuts, pension reforms, delayed retirement, etc., and demand a reduction in France's budget for the EU, reversing Macron's advocacy of a position of greater coherence within the EU and a tougher and decisive stance on defense. At that time, France may turn from a "pillar" of the EU into a "thorn in the side".
In addition, there will also be uncertainty about France's position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Le Pen has a "pro-Russian" history, but Le Pen has previously said that she supports Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Foreign media reported that against the backdrop of a rising wave of nationalism, French diplomacy may enter an "unprecedented turbulent period", and NATO and the European Union will face rare and difficult challenges.
What's next?
Even if Macron loses his parliamentary majority, there is no need to resign in principle. Since the constitution does not stipulate how the president chooses the prime minister, Macron could theoretically try to form an "anti-far-right" coalition and hand over the premiership to another party or someone from another party.
After the election results, Macron issued a written statement asking the ruling party to unite the Left Front and the traditional right to prevent the far right from gaining a parliamentary majority.
If the three camps of the far right, the center, and the left are not enough to govern alone, form a coalition government, or guarantee the formation of a viable minority government, French politics will also fall into "further paralysis", and the caretaker government can only temporarily manage the basic day-to-day affairs, and it will be difficult to pass or implement the bill.
French National Assembly
Faced with this situation, Mélenchon, the leader of France's far-left party "Indomitable France", urged all left-wing candidates in third place to voluntarily abandon the election in order to concentrate votes and "besiege the National Alliance". After Le Pen took the lead, he exclaimed: "We will never allow the National League to win." Faure, the first secretary of the leftist Socialist Party, also called on his party candidates on television to withdraw from the election "as long as there is a risk of the far right being elected." The ruling coalition "all together" makes the same demand.
"Macron's lack of popularity is at the heart of this election." The British "Guardian" said on the 30th that in the Baath Party led by him, some candidates deliberately used campaign posters without his name and face. Many centrists also said they wanted Macron to keep a low profile during the campaign.
Regarding the possibility of her far-right camp coming to power, Le Pen stressed that the second round of elections on July 7 is key.
"It's not over yet, the second round will be the decisive one," she said. ”
(Editor: Liu Zhenzhen)