The proportion of pork consumption has declined again! According to the latest documents released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the proportion of pork consumption in mainland China has continued to decline, and has dropped to 57.8% in 2023. On the other hand, the proportion of poultry meat and beef consumption continues to rise, especially the consumption of poultry meat has increased by 80.4% in 12 years! Looking to the future, China's meat consumption market will usher in important changes, and the pig industry is also facing more fierce competition in the diversified market......
Prioritizing the development of the poultry industry?
On June 28, the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs published the "Summary of the Letter on the Reply to Proposal No. 00298 of the Second Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference" (hereinafter referred to as the "Reply"), in response to the "Proposal on the Proposal on Giving Priority to the Development of High-quality Poultry Industry in the Mainland" put forward by member Hou Shuisheng.
The reply mentioned that in the mainland's "meat consumption structure", the proportion of pork consumption has been declining, and the proportion of apparent meat consumption has dropped from 65.6% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2023; During the same period, the proportion of poultry meat consumption increased steadily, from 20.2% to 25.5%. Per capita poultry meat consumption increased from 9.7 kg in 2000 to 17.5 kg in 2022, an increase of 80.4 percent, higher than the world average of 17.07 kg per capita.
The above data reveals two important signals:
First, the proportion of pork consumption has decreased significantly and will continue to decline;
Second, the consumption of poultry meat ushered in rapid growth, and the proportion may increase to more than 30% in the future.
These two trends may be a bit of a problem for colleagues in the pig industry, after all, the cake is limited, but the share of other industries has increased. What's more, Mr. Hou also proposed to "give priority to the development of high-quality poultry industry", which does have a certain sense of competition.
However, the reply given by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs did not indicate that it would "give priority to development", but pointed out that we are moving forward in accordance with the development idea of "stabilizing pigs, increasing cattle and sheep, strengthening the poultry industry, and developing the dairy industry", and we must continue to meet diversified consumer needs.
It can be seen that we do not need to worry about the situation of "uneven water in a bowl", but the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also pointed out in the "reply": expert analysis, driven by factors such as economic and social development, industrial restructuring and consumption upgrading, poultry meat consumption will maintain a growth trend in the future. It is estimated that by 2030, the per capita consumption of poultry meat will be about 22 kg, accounting for 32% of meat consumption.
It can be seen that the impact from the "second largest consumption of meat - poultry meat" will intensify. In fact, under the trend of younger consumption in the mainland, not only poultry meat, but also beef and mutton, eggs, and aquatic products are impacting the market, and the cross-industry price war has already begun.
Price wars under the pig cycle, cattle cycle, and poultry cycle
From 2021 to 2023, we experienced the "longest pig cycle in history", which caused many farmers to completely withdraw from the industry.
But the pig cycle affects not only the pig industry, but also the cattle industry and poultry industry, especially in 2023, when the supply of live pigs will reach its peak, when not only the price of pork is extremely low, but also the price of poultry and beef continues to decline, and the whole animal husbandry industry is involuted together!
This year, our pig prices began to soar, but everyone found that they could not go up if they did not rise to close to 20 yuan/kg. On the one hand, this is the impact of the second fattening, on the other hand, it is also the adjustment of the large consumer market, after all, if the price of pigs rises again, then it will be more expensive than beef!
Pig prices are rising, but the "cattle cycle" has entered a trough, the wholesale price of beef in the market has only 61.07 yuan / kg, and in June, there were also media reports that "100 yuan to buy 4 catties of beef, consumers feel very affordable" news. Just imagine, when consumers are faced with high-priced pork, low-cost beef, and low-cost poultry, the balance in their hearts will naturally tilt.
To put it simply, the pig industry, beef cattle industry, and poultry industry are all facing the same consumer market, and everyone's output has not been saturated for a long time before 2021, so the competition is not obvious.
However, now that the pig industry is large-scale, the poultry industry is large-scale, and the beef cattle industry is large-scale, and large enterprises have adopted the method of "small profits and quick turnover, and pulling up the market value", the competition has quietly broken through the barriers of the industry.
As for the competition, some experts in our industry have long pointed out that the proportion of pork consumption continues to decrease, while other meats are rising rapidly.
Since 1990, the proportion of pork consumption has decreased from 71.6% to 57.8%, the proportion of poultry meat consumption has increased from 8.49% to 25.5%, and beef and mutton have been relatively stable, basically increasing by about 2-4% per year.
In fact, this is the inevitable change brought about by the rapid growth of the mainland's economy, and it will also be the inevitable direction that will be promoted by the rejuvenation and diversification of consumption.
But we don't need to be too anxious, because there is still room for growth in total pork consumption.
Pork consumption continues to grow
From the perspective of pork consumption, it has basically grown steadily over the past 20 years.
According to statistics, the "per capita pork consumption of households" in mainland China has risen from 10.54 kg in 1990 to 30.5 kg in 2023, an increase of nearly 20 kg, equivalent to an increase of 1.89 times.
From a more recent point of view, the per capita pork consumption of households has increased by an average of 1.05 kg per year in the past 10 years, especially in 2023, an increase of up to 3.6 kg compared with 2022!
This is because the total meat consumption in the mainland is increasing rapidly, according to statistics, in 2021, the people of the country consumed nearly 100 million tons of meat, which is twice the total consumption of the United States! But in 2021, the per capita meat consumption in mainland China is only half of that of the United States!
This means that the mainland meat consumption market has grown rapidly in the past 30 years, and with the continuous improvement of our per capita income level, there is still huge room for growth in the total meat consumption in the future!
In short, "pork" is also the largest meat consumed by mainland residents, even if beef will be cheaper and poultry meat will be of higher quality, but pork production is also taking the road of "high-quality development". We have many excellent breeding enterprises in the cultivation of higher nutrition, better flavor of the special varieties, will also bring better taste pork, so as to win more consumer market. In addition, the current competition in the livestock and poultry industry is benign and friendly, and it is actively promoting the high-quality development of the livestock and poultry industry in the mainland, and the livestock and poultry productivity is also rapidly improving!