War between Israel and Allah in Lebanon is on the verge of breaking out, and the situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly dangerous. Fears that the war between Lebanon and Israel could escalate into a larger Middle East theater of events have turned attention to Iran, the big boss behind Allah in Lebanon.
On June 29, Iranian representatives warned at the United Nations that if Israel launched an attack on Allah in Lebanon, it would likely trigger a war of annihilation, according to the Russian news agency Sputnik. Two days later, the Iranian foreign minister had a telephone conversation with the Turkish counterpart, and the two sides had an in-depth exchange on the issue of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict. What exactly do the Iranians mean by a war of annihilation? And why did they communicate with Turkey in the first place?
First of all, it should be clear that Israel's biggest adversary in the Middle East is Iran, and the two sides have a deep blood feud. Most of the anti-Israeli forces scattered throughout the Middle East are inextricably linked to Iran, and they are all supported by Iran without exception. These armed forces either work closely with Iran or are directly cultivated by Iran abroad. Therefore, whether or not a war in the Middle East can be fought depends on Iran's attitude. Judging by the current situation, Iran will not detonate a large-scale conflict for the time being, at least they will not be directly involved in the conflict with Israel.
Israel's wartime cabinet has been disbanded, and power has been concentrated in the hands of the Security Cabinet, which is now dominated by right-wing and far-right forces. In addition, Netanyahu needs to prolong the state of war to ensure his political security. Therefore, the desire of the Israeli side to attack Allah in Lebanon is strong.
Of course, Iran also has a desire to maintain regional instability and fight Israel, but they do not want the situation to spiral out of control. Iran and Israel are old enemies, and striking at Israel is Iran's established strategy, for which they have even established an "anti-Israeli axis". This system includes Hamas, Allah, the Houthis, Syria, Iraq Islamist and other local forces. Iran's warning to Israel that a war would be a war of annihilation, should be a warning to Israel that these anti-Israeli axis forces will besiege Israel this time.
In addition, Iran does not want to see the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia after the conflict stops, nor does it want to see the United States pull Saudi Arabia back with a security guarantee agreement. Therefore, this battle still has to be fought, but it must be controlled within a certain range. If they hit Israel too hard, the United States will definitely take action, and this is what they have to guard against. In addition, President Raisi has just been killed, Khamenei is very old, and a new president has not yet been elected, so Iran is not suitable for war at this time.
While actively preparing for war, Iran is also actively communicating with Turkey. We speculate that Iran is laying the groundwork for future political mediation. If Israel goes to war with Allah in Lebanon, the United States will more or less intervene and rally allies. In this way, Iran will be more passive, and Russia and China will certainly not intervene in the Middle East conflict, so Iran needs to find a strong and biased international ally, the most suitable one is Turkey.
Generally speaking, a Lebanese-Israeli war is inevitable, but both sides want to keep their situation within certain limits. With such a cautious attitude, it is unlikely that the overall situation in the Middle East will change!